NBA Finals 2016: Cavaliers vs. Warriors Game 1 Odds, Prop Bets, Predictions
The Golden State Warriors are four wins away from winning their second straight NBA title and capping off their record 73-win season with a Larry O’Brien Trophy. The only thing standing in their way is a familiar foe—LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Golden State handled the Cavaliers in six games in last year’s NBA Finals, but it would be inaccurate to call this a true rematch. While the names on the front of the jerseys will be the same, Cleveland will be at full strength this time around. Kevin Love didn’t play in last year’s Finals with a shoulder injury, and Kyrie Irving played in Game 1 before suffering a knee injury.
Cleveland is also more reliant on the three-point shot this year with Channing Frye playing minutes at center instead of Timofey Mozgov.
The new-look Cavaliers and Warriors will approach the NBA Finals as an opportunity to win a title, but bettors will see it as a chance to partake in more bets than just the straight point spread. Like the Super Bowl in the NFL, there are plenty of prop bets for the NBA’s biggest stage.
With that in mind, here is a look at the odds for Game 1 and the entire series, per Odds Shark (as of Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET), before delving into predictions for the individual prop bets for the clash between the Warriors and Cavaliers:
| Game 1 | Golden State -5.5 |
| Series Winner | Golden State -220, Cleveland +180 |
Prop Bets and Predictions
Stephen Campbell of Odds Shark passed along a list of various prop bets for the NBA Finals.
| Cleveland in Four | +2,500 |
| Cleveland in Five | +1,400 |
| Cleveland in Six | +500 |
| Cleveland in Seven | +800 |
| Golden State in Four | +750 |
| Golden State in Five | +325 |
| Golden State in Six | +500 |
| Golden State in Seven | +300 |
The Warriors will take full advantage of the early games in Oracle Arena and win the NBA Finals in five games.
Golden State was an impressive 39-2 at home this season and already won two of the first three rounds in the playoffs in five games by taking care of business in Oakland. Stephen Curry and his teammates will also play with urgency in those first two home games after they lost Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and found their backs against the wall when they went on the road.
The Warriors nearly paid the price for that slip-up at home when they fell behind 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals after two straight road losses.
Golden State is also talented enough to steal either Game 3 or 4 in Cleveland, especially since it destroyed the Cavaliers there in January, 132-98. The Warriors went 34-7 on the road this season on the way to 73 wins and will set up a Game 5 to win the series at home by capturing one of two in Cleveland.
| Four | +650 |
| Five | +230 |
| Six | +210 |
| Seven | +200 |
As mentioned above, the Warriors are going to win the series 4-1, which means it will last five games.
| Stephen Curry | -125 |
| LeBron James | +225 |
| Klay Thompson | +475 |
| Draymond Green | +850 |
| Kyrie Irving | +1,000 |
| Kevin Love | +2,000 |
| Andre Iguodala | +3,300 |
| J.R. Smith | +5,000 |
| Harrison Barnes | +5,500 |
| Andrew Bogut | +8,000 |
| Tristan Thompson | +10,000 |
It may be the obvious pick, but Curry was the regular-season MVP the last two years and will earn a Finals MVP to go with his collection in 2016.
The Cavaliers hounded him with Matthew Dellavedova last year, and he shot 5-of-23 in a Game 2 loss. While he scored at least 22 points in each of the other five games, that one poor performance opened the door for Andre Iguodala to win the NBA Finals MVP.
However, Dellavedova only saw extended minutes last year because of Irving’s injury. Irving and Love may be impact offensive players, but they are defensive liabilities who the Warriors will exploit in this series. ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy suggested as much, per Jeff Faraudo of the San Jose Mercury News:
"I know people are talking a lot in them being whole. But there are going to be challenges defensively. There were offensive question marks last year because of their injuries. I think this year being whole presents defensive challenges for them as they go up to compete against Golden State.
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The Warriors will look to isolate those two defenders in pick-and-roll scenarios and will largely use Curry to do so because of his smooth ball-handling skills and ability to fire from nearly anywhere on the court. That will lead to plenty of shot attempts when he gets too much space and assist opportunities when defenders hedge too far off the screener, be it Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut or someone else.
According to NBA.com, opponents are shooting 7.1 percent better than their normal averages in the playoffs when Irving guards them. That tally stretches out to 14.4 percent inside 10 feet and 15.1 percent inside six feet. As for Love, opponents shot 3.6 percent better than their averages in the regular season, per NBA.com.
The key with Love, though, is the fact opponents are shooting 5.8 percent better than their normal three-point averages in the playoffs with him defending them, which is where Curry will take advantage if and when Cleveland has to switch against the screens.
| Stephen Curry | -125 |
| LeBron James | +250 |
| Klay Thompson | +400 |
| Kyrie Irving | +800 |
| Kevin Love | +3,300 |
| Draymond Green | +5,000 |
| J.R. Smith | +15,000 |
| Andre Iguodala | +25,000 |
Curry scored an NBA-best 30.1 points per game in the regular season and will torch Irving and Love for the reasons described above on his way to becoming the leading scorer in the NBA Finals.
| Tied 2-2 | +137 |
| Golden State, 3-1 | +175 |
| Cleveland, 3-1 | +350 |
| Golden State, 4-0 | +900 |
| Cleveland, 4-0 | +2,500 |
I already picked the Warriors to win the first two at home and steal one in Cleveland, so the series will be 3-1 after four games.
Game 1 Prediction
Golden State gets to play Game 1 at Oracle Arena and won both regular-season matchups against Cleveland. What’s more, Curry and Klay Thompson are shooting at a record pace from beyond the arc, and that won’t change in the NBA Finals:
While the Warriors will score plenty of points with those shooters, Iguodala will at least prevent James from overwhelming Golden State on the other side. Sean Deveney of Sporting News said Warriors head coach Steve Kerr “used Iguodala to rescue the Finals in 2015 and used him again on Monday to get past Oklahoma City” with his strong defense on Kevin Durant.
Golden State is fresh off three life-or-death games in the Western Conference Finals and will carry that sense of urgency over into the NBA Finals. Look for Curry, Thompson and Iguodala to stake a 1-0 lead in the series in front of their home fans.
Prediction: Warriors 102, Cavaliers 95
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