NBA Finals 2016: Predicting the Title Series Before Thunder vs. Warriors Game 7
The NBA Finals-bound Cleveland Cavaliers await the predictably competitive Western Conference Finals Game 7 showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder.
LeBron James and the Cavaliers ran roughshod through the Eastern Conference, needing just 14 games to best a lineup of teams that really never stood a chance.
As most anyone with a fundamental knowledge of the NBA could have predicted, it's been a much different story for the two gridlocked teams out West before they head into Game 7 on Monday night at Oracle Arena.
The disparity in paths traveled has Las Vegas thinking about the Cavaliers as a close second behind the Warriors when it comes to future champions, according to Odds Shark:
| Golden State Warriors | -120 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +160 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +600 |
And why not?
Cleveland gets the benefit of extra rest as the Thunder and Warriors dance. Not that the team seems like it needs any. The Big Three is very much alive and well in Cleveland—unlike last year, when Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving dealt with injuries and Cavaliers fans had flashbacks to how things were before James left for the Miami Heat.
This time around, the Cavaliers are at full strength.
Round 1 was a dismissal of the up-and-coming Detroit Pistons—James was the game's leading scorer just once in four games, with the other three going to Irving.
Round 2 was a blowout of the Atlanta Hawks where James was the leading scorer just once again. He wasn't a leading scorer at all over the six games it took to best the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The biggest question is which team has to deal with the now-healthy Cavaliers.
Maybe it's the Warriors, who have resembled a streaky team at best during the conference finals. Stephen Curry and Co. lost Game 1, 108-102. After winning Game 2, they dropped two games on the road in ugly fashion, 133-105 and 118-94.
Now Curry has led the Warriors to a pair of wins, sparking Saturday night's epic 108-101 outcome after a late run.
"We've got a lot of belief and a lot of heart, and we've given ourselves a chance to win this series," Curry said, according to ESPN.com. "That's all we could ask for. There's obviously a lot of excitement, but we still have one job to do."
One doesn't even need the odds from Las Vegas to think the series belongs to the Warriors now.
Kevin Durant and Oklahoma City needed to close out the series in Game 6 at home. The never-should-have-been-here Thunder rode momentum into the conference finals after managing to best the 67-win San Antonio Spurs.
But the Thunder have fizzled as the Warriors do what they do—discover their elite shooting stroke the longer a series goes on. Don't believe it? Check out a stat provided by Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News:
The Warriors shot 47.7 percent from deep on Saturday. Curry went 6-of-13 from long range with 31 points, and Klay Thompson hit on 11-of-18 for 41. In other words, it didn't matter Golden State lost the rebounding battle 49-43 or got destroyed in the paint 52-28.
It seemed even before the season that folks had chalked in a rematch between the Warriors and Cavaliers. With Game 7 in Golden State and the Warriors on fire, it's hard to imagine anything else, which means it's time to gander at the framework of the Finals schedule:
| 1 | Thursday, June 2 | Team A | ABC |
| 2 | Sunday, June 5 | Team A | ABC |
| 3 | Wednesday, June 8 | Team B | ABC |
| 4 | Friday, June 10 | Team B | ABC |
| 5* | Monday, June 13 | Team A | ABC |
| 6* | Thursday, June 16 | Team B | ABC |
| 7* | Sunday, June 19 | Team A | ABC |
Should Golden State get home-court advantage, there's a chance it doesn't matter how well-rested the Cavaliers enter the Finals.
Look at the regular season. In December, Golden State welcomed Cleveland to town and sent the visitors packing, 89-83. The full-strength Cavaliers got 25 points from James and 18 boards from Love and still lost.
Fast forward to January, when the second of two meetings went down in Golden State. Curry dropped 35 points in the 132-98 knee-slapper, while Love scored three, Irving scored eight and James mustered 16.
It's much easier to roll with the Cavaliers as the Finals pick if it's the Thunder emerging from the Western Conference. The Warriors? Not so much.
The Warriors haven't showed any signs of slowing. Expect their stand at home on Monday to set up the Finals rematch from a year ago. Based on everything we know, anything short of a sweep by Cleveland throws things in favor of the Warriors.
Rematches aren't a bad thing, especially when one team enters on a better run or at least at full strength. Call it the ultimate test for the proven Warriors, who aren't ready to call it a season yet.
Prediction: Warriors beat Cavaliers in seven.
All stats and info via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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