2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down NBA Future of MSU's Deyonta Davis
Michigan State's Deyonta Davis is one of the first round's ultimate upside picks.
He didn't put up the kind of numbers that scream "one-and-done freshman," but he has physical tools the NBA covets.
| Age | 19 (Born Dec. 2, 1996) |
| Team | Michigan State |
| Height | 6'10" |
| Weight | 240 |
It's interesting how much preseason expectations can influence perception. Kentucky's Skal Labissiere, for instance, was expected to be one of the draft's top two picks but put up pedestrian numbers, so everyone started picking apart his game.
Davis was not expected to be one and done, but when he started flashing some of his potential—even though he was not overly productive yet—he skyrocketed into mock drafts and was rarely criticized. It's easy to go overboard on what Davis can become, because he's so smooth and makes it all look effortless.
Relevant Stats
| 18.6 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 59.8 | 18.6 | 119.4 |
Davis' advanced numbers were impressive even though his per-game averages were not great because he didn't play a ton of minutes and was a low-usage player. That's understandable since he was on a team with veteran stars such as Denzel Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello. Had he stayed in school, he likely would have put up big-time numbers next season.
It's not unusual for head coach Tom Izzo to bring freshmen along slowly, and Davis is the first one-and-done in the program since Zach Randolph in 2001. A look at Randolph's freshman numbers show that it's probably smart not to put too much stock in what Davis averaged as a first-year either.
| 2000-01 | 19.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 58.7 |
Strengths
Davis' size and athleticism are close to ideal for a big man. He measured 6'10 ½" (in shoes) with a 7'2 ½" wingspan at the NBA combine. He didn't do any of the agility tests, but had he done so, he likely would have been one of the fastest bigs in the draft.
He runs the floor and can get up in the air quickly; he also has good hands. That combination makes him the perfect target for lobs at the rim, and that's what he did best for Michigan State this past season on the offensive end.
Davis has the potential to be so much more than just a lob-catcher, though. He didn't show much of it at MSU, but he can consistently knock down the 15-17-foot jumper, and it wouldn't be a leap to assume he'll add range as he gets older. On the Nike EYBL circuit, he played alongside Purdue's Caleb Swanigan, and the duo made for a mean high-low game. Davis spent a lot of time in the high post area and showed off a solid mid-range jumper.
At Michigan State, he showed off more of his back-to-the-basket game, scoring over either shoulder with both hands and a smooth jump hook. Davis projects as a real weapon in the pick-and-roll down the road because of his quickness, finishing ability around the rim and mid-range jumper.
There's also plenty of upside on the defensive end. He was one of the best shot-blockers in the country this past season, blocking 10.2 percent of his opponents' two-point attempts, per KenPom.com. That block rate ranked 22nd nationally, trailing only Purdue's A.J. Hammons out of the big men who have a chance to get drafted in the first round.
Davis also has the quickness to defend on the perimeter and switch against perimeter players. Overall, he has one of the higher defensive ceilings in this draft.
Weaknesses
Most of Davis' weaknesses can be attributed to youth.
"There's a transition period he's going to have to go through to reach full maturation," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report.
On both ends, Davis spent his freshman year trying to figure out how to play the game at the college level. He got by on the defensive end because of his physical tools and instincts as a shot-blocker, but he'll be a much better defender once he understands how to guard certain actions, such as a ball screen.
The transition to the NBA will be challenging, and the team that drafts him may have to wait a few years before he's productive.
Davis needs time on both ends to clean up his game, and in an ideal world, scouts would have gotten a better look at him in more of a primary scoring role as a sophomore. He looked awesome when he got the ball on the blocks and went straight into a move. When he was indecisive, though, he looked awkward.
Experience will help his deficiencies, and once he starts to figure out the game mentally, look out.
NBA Player Comparison
Davis reminds me of former Kansas power forward Darrell Arthur at the same age—Arthur was a freshman in 2006-07—and the two had similar freshman seasons. Both put up decent numbers and looked to be capable of much more.
The NBA scout compared Davis to Terrence Jones, who was a much better playmaker at the same age but has similar length and athleticism.
A more optimistic comparison would be Serge Ibaka. He has improved his shot and offensive repertoire as he's developed, yet he always had the physical tools and shot-blocking ability.
Best-Case Scenario
For Davis to have an Ibaka-like career, he'll need to develop the same kind of motor and work ethic. Ibaka has always played hard, and while Davis didn't come off as lazy at Michigan State, he wasn't exactly a high-motor big man.
Worst-Case Scenario
At the low end, Davis projects to be a quality rotation big man similar to Arthur. If not for knee problems, Arthur may have become a quality starting power forward.
Davis projects to go anywhere from the mid-lottery to middle of the first round. In this draft, getting a player similar to Arthur in the middle of the first round could turn out to be a win.
Prediction
How high Davis goes could be determined by his predraft interviews and the behind-the-scenes work that scouts have already done. Based on what he showed in glimpses on the floor at Michigan State, he's worth a reach.
Unlike Labissiere, he showed enough to warrant using a high pick, and any teams that are willing to take a project big man should go with him before the Kentucky freshman. Labissiere is a better shooter right now, and the possibility of him becoming a three-point threat is enticing, but Davis is further along in every other area of his game.
It takes less imagination to see him as an eventual starter in the league.
If it's determined that Davis is a high-character player who is going to be a worker, then he could climb into the No. 7-10 range. Another year in school with production that met his talent could have had him as a lock in that range. But if the worst-case scenario is he drops into the teens, his decision to leave after just one year is justified.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @CJMooreBR.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
