Texas A&M Football: Predicting the Aggies' 2016 Win-Loss Record

For most programs in the Southeastern Conference, a long offseason usually means coming off playing in one of the lower-tier bowls or missing the postseason all together.

But this one’s felt even longer for Texas A&M fans.

The way last season unraveled with quarterbacks announcing their departures while there was still a game left to play, chemistry concerns and the continuing turnover of the coaching staff, Kevin Sumlin was a long mustache short of resembling a circus ringmaster.

The head coach definitely needed a couple of quiet months devoid of drama—which wasn’t helped by wide receivers coach Aaron Moorehead’s recent odd rant on Twitter about losing a recruit, causing another prize prospect to de-commit. 

It would have been easier to downplay except for the numerous other things casting long shadows over the program, especially the quarterback transfers. Kyler Murray went to Oklahoma. Kyle Allen headed to Houston. A year previous Kenny Hill left and is now set to be the starting quarterback at TCU.

How could anyone not have concerns that something’s seriously amiss in College Station? All three had started games and wanted to be the next Johnny Manziel, at least on the field, but are now at rival schools.

Season	Record
2012	11-2
2013	9-4
2014	8-5
2015	8-5

Meanwhile, a pattern of sorts had developed in the standings, which Sumlin desperately needs to break. Although every Aggies team under the head coach has been ranked in the Top 10 of the Associated Press Poll at some point of the season, only two finished in the Top 25.

Since the 2012 Manziel-led team ended up fifth following its impressive dismantling of Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, 41-13—the program’s best finish in the poll since 1956, when Paul “Bear” Bryant was the coach—Texas A&M hasn’t been able to replicate that success.

The Aggies got up to No. 6 during the two subsequent seasons, only to drop off to No. 18 in 2013 and unranked in 2014.

Last year, they began unranked and quickly moved into the Top 25 after defeating No. 15 Arizona State in the opener. A&M peaked at No. 9 when Alabama and Ole Miss exposed it on consecutive Saturdays, and combined with the quarterback issues, it never really recovered.

It’s also reflected in Sumlin’s record against ranked opponents. His team went 4-2 in 2012 but is 5-9 since.

Yet despite all that, the conditions are ripe for a turnaround this season.

The defense should be much better with John Chavis in his second year as coordinator, and the line has the potential to be outstanding.

The Aggies have a favorable schedule by SEC standards, highlighted by an intriguing matchup with UCLA in the opener, two weeks before a telling game at Auburn.

With the exception of Alabama on October 22, A&M’s toughest games all appear to be at home (UCLA, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU), a huge advantage considering rebuilt Kyle Field and the Texas heat.

The real reason for some optimism, though, is with the players themselves, as the Aggies appear to have some real leadership on this team. It begins with quarterback Trevor Knight, the graduate transfer from Oklahoma who only needed the spring to lock up starting job.

“I just felt like because how he’s played, how he’s handled himself, everything, his body of work, he was ready to go,” Sumlin said during the league’s recent spring coaches teleconference with reporters.

Opponent	Spread	Outcome
vs. Arizona State	-3	W 38-17
Ball State	-31	W 56-23
Nevada	-32	W 44-27
vs. Arkansas	-6	W 28-21
Mississippi State	-4	W 30-17
Alabama	+5	L 41-23
at Ole Miss	+6.5	L 23-3
South Carolina	-14	W 35-28
Auburn	-7	L 26-10
Western Carolina	-34	W 41-17
at Vanderbilt	-4	W 25-0
at LSU	+7	W 19-7
vs. Louisville	+3	L 27-21

Although Knight had an impressive spring game, what’s been largely overlooked by SEC fans outside of Texas was that he also participated in a spring-break mission trip to Haiti.

"This is my fourth trip to Haiti," Knight said during a pre-trip press conference.

“It was a life changer, a perspective changer.”

He was one of 15 football players—including backup quarterback Jake Hubenak, prize defensive end Myles Garrett, defensive lineman Daeshon Hall, defensive tackle Daylon Mack and wide receiver Josh Reynolds—and 29 Texas A&M athletes to make the trip through Mission of Hope out of Austin, Texas. 

“The leadership on this team really couldn’t be at a higher level,” Sumlin said.

If so, Sumlin might finally weather this storm and his team challenge for the SEC West title if there aren’t any more major setbacks. Far more likely is something along the lines of an 8-4 regular season, which in this case could be viewed as both as successful and disappointing season.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.