NBA Lottery 2016: Which Teams Should Take Brandon Ingram No. 1 over Ben Simmons?
On Thursday, June 23, sometime after 7 p.m. ET, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver will step to the podium at Barclays Center and say: "With the first pick in the 2016 NBA draft, the [insert lottery team/conspiracy theory beneficiary here] select Ben Simmons from Louisiana State University."
We think.
That's because many lottery hopefuls don't need a projected power forward with floor-general handles. They need a wing who guards the toughest perimeter assignments, spaces the floor and catches defenses off guard with subtle playmaking on the bounce.
They need Duke's Brandon Ingram.
We're not just talking about fringe playoff contingents with little hope of securing the No. 1 overall pick during May 17's draft lottery either. Squads with top-seven lottery odds also have ample incentive to shake things up by eschewing the consensus best player available (Simmons) for need (Ingram).
Honorable 'Not Top-Seven Lottery Odds' Mentions
Milwaukee Bucks (1.8 percent chance at No. 1 pick)
Between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker, the Milwaukee Bucks have their power forward foundation set. Incorporating Ingram as a small forward, alongside each of those three, is far easier than throwing out lineups that feature either Parker or Simmons at the wing, where opponents would dominate them.
Milwaukee could get spunky, trade Greg Monroe, use Simmons extensively at center and bank on the perimeter defense improving. But that's only possible if the lottery gods sadistically smite the nine teams with more ping-pong-balls than the Bucks.
Orlando Magic (0.8 percent)
Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic would also force the Orlando Magic to slot the 6'10" Simmons at small forward, and he has no business being a 3 in today's league.
Ingram makes far more sense in that role. He could play off the ball-dominant Mario Hezonja, Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton on offense, allowing Orlando to cut bait with Evan Fournier if his restricted free agency proves too expensive.
Should the Magic deal Vucevic and move Gordon to the 5 indefinitely, then we can talk about Simmons being the better fit—after we talk about our flying robotic-swine overlords who allowed Orlando to win the lottery in the first place, of course.
Boston Celtics (15.6 percent, via Brooklyn Nets)
Simmons would work on the Boston Celtics. Head coach Brad Stevens has shown he can turn ball-handler-heavy lineups into defensive dynamos, carving out just enough offense with their end-to-end speed and explosion off screens.
But Stevens shouldn't have to keeping doing that. The Celtics have plenty of ball-bearers, and Simmons could only work off some combination of Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart and, should he not leave in free agency, Evan Turner for so long.
Boston's super-small, space-starved lineups aren't conducive to Simmons' future. He attempted just three triples and shot 32.9 percent on two-point jumpers at LSU, according to Hoop-Math.com. Jonas Jerebko (non-guaranteed), Amir Johnson (non-guaranteed), Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger (restricted free agent) each spend time at center and, with the exception of Johnson, are more refined outside shooters.
Lackluster spacing was their undoing in the first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks. Avery Bradley was lost to a hamstring injury, Olynyk was never 100 percent and Boston, according to NBAwowy.com, never stood a chance in h-e-double hockey sticks of stretching defenses when those two sit:
| With Bradley and Olynyk | 37.6 | 50.5 |
| Without Bradley and Olynyk | 27.3 | 41.4 |
Ingram's 41 percent success rate from deep at Duke is a perfect, much-needed match for a team that ranked in the bottom three of three-point efficiency during the regular season and drilled a below-average number of its wide-open treys.
Smart and Thomas, plus maybe Turner, won't have any issues finding lanes to burst through with Bradley, Crowder and Ingram around the arc. And the soon-to-be rookie, at 6'9", would fit right into Stevens' positionless model; he would see time at shooting guard, small forward and power forward.
With him in the fold, Boston's offense has a better chance at cracking the top 10 in efficiency. Combine that with a should-be top-five defense and the Celtics have the look and feel of an Eastern Conference powerhouse before they even surf the free-agent market.
Minnesota Timberwolves (8.8 percent)
Pairing Simmons with Karl-Anthony Towns would be fun. It's just not necessary.
Nemanja Bjelica, Gorgui Dieng, Kevin Garnett and Towns give the Minnesota Timberwolves enough bodies up front. And the team has more than its fair share of on-ball attackers: Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad, Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins.
Adding Ingram instead would complement Minnesota's setup with a Khris Middleton-like boost—a low-usage asset who awaits kick-outs from LaVine, Rubio, Towns and Wiggins.
Or, to put it another way, Ingram is everything the Timberwolves offense needs.
Despite hovering around the top 10 of points scored per 100 possessions in 2015-16, Minnesota finished bottom-six in deep-ball efficiency and were bottom-nine accuracy-wise on uncontested long-range missiles. Those outside struggles shaped the Timberwolves' shot selection for the worse. Only the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs jacked up more mid-range jumpers, and Minnesota ranked in the bottom five of total drives.
If that doesn't sway you, the Timberwolves' crummy defense should. As newly instated coach-president Tom Thibodeau said, per USA Today's Pat Borzi:
"If you look at what wins in the playoffs, you have to be strong on both sides of the ball. You have to strive to be in the Top 10 in efficiency in both offense and defense. We’re close offensively. Defensively we’ve got a lot of room to improve. That’s an area we’ve got to correct. Rebounding is an area we’ve got to correct. You take it step by step. You don’t skip over any step.
"
Three-point prevention is another facet which Minnesota must improve. Opponents shot a still-too-high 35.5 percent from downtown, and the Timberwolves gave up more uncontested three-point attempts than 75 percent of the league, according to B/R Insights.
Ingram's length lets him pester multiple positions and would instantly beef up Minnesota's weakest point of attack—scarily so when you bake in the defensive tenets Thibodeau is poised to impart.
Philadelphia 76ers (25 percent)
In his most recent mock draft, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman had the Philadelphia 76ers taking Simmons if they win the lottery. He justifies this decision thusly:
"The hiring of new general manager Bryan Colangelo doesn't make it any easier to predict which way the Philadelphia 76ers will lean on draft night.
But after years of risky picks that haven't quite yielded desired results, it seems reasonable to think management will favor the surest thing.
Duke's Brandon Ingram should receive strong consideration, but at 190 pounds, he's thin and offers minimal playmaking, defense or rebounding. At 6'10", 240 pounds, Ben Simmons' physical tools, versatility and unique production (19.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals per game) help create the perception he's the safest option.
"
Everyone in Philly should know he's right. But they should hope he's wrong.
Plugging Simmons into the Sixers rotation makes no sense. None. Zilch. Zip. Zero. They have a traffic jam up front, and he only adds to it.
One of Joel Embiid, who should make his NBA debut at some point in 2016-17, and Nerlens Noel already has to play out of position, at power forward—even though they, like Jahlil Okafor, are best suited at center.
Dario Saric's arrival only complicates matters. He needs to be earmarked as a 4 once stateside, but Philly's inexplicable collection of bigs makes it more likely he slides to small forward, where he will be overwhelmed on defense. Tossing Simmons into the mix pretty much ensures he'll never see power forward duty.
Colangelo could open up the rotation with some wheeling and dealing after the draft, but that's necessary anyway. He would realistically need to flip three of Embiid, Noel, Okafor and Saric to maximize Simmons' playing time.
Integrating Ingram is a more seamless process, because the Sixers need wings and shooters anyway. They ranked in the bottom six of accuracy on wide-open looks from deep, in addition to the bottom 10 of field-goal percentage on drives.
Stick Ingram behind the three-point line as a shooting and driving threat, and Philly is one NBA-level starting point guard shy from deploying a half-decent offense. And since the Duke product only adds to a defense that is one Okafor trade away from not stinking something awful, he might even help the Sixers win back some of the fans who still worship at the alter of Sam Hinkie's defunct Process.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
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