Stat Projections for Fantasy Football's Impact Rookies
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, it's time to start thinking about fantasy football.
To get an early start on your draft prep, here's a breakdown of the top impact rookies from the 2016 NFL draft class and stat projections for each player.
Keep in mind, this wasn't a great class for the skill-position players. There are a small handful of prospects who will make significant contributions to your fantasy team—at least as the depth charts stand now before injuries start taking their tolls.
So for that reason, many of these season-long stat projections fall well below the numbers of a guy you want on your fantasy team heading into September. But since injuries happen and depth chart spots are fluid throughout the season, we'll touch on multiple prospects from every position who should be on your radar screen—even if they aren't on your draft board in August.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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Ezekiel Elliott stands head and shoulders above all other rookies in this draft class, primarily because he's the only one guaranteed to play a starring role in his offense.
Despite Darren McFadden's production a season ago, the Dallas Cowboys didn't take Elliott fourth overall to have him sit behind a 28-year-old, injury-prone vet.
Elliott should be a workhorse in the Cowboys offense right off the bat and is a legitimate option in the first round of fantasy drafts.
What puts Elliott at such an elite level is the fact that he never needs to come off the field for strategic purposes. His ability as a receiver and in pass protection allows him to stay on the field on passing downs, which dramatically increases his potential for production.
The Cowboys gave DeMarco Murray 449 touches in 2014 (receiving and rushing), and Elliott could be in line for a similar workload this season.
Projected stat line: 335 rush att, 1,525 yards, 12 TD; 45 rec, 370 yards.
Laquon Treadwell, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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Laquon Treadwell landed in an ideal situation with the Minnesota Vikings, and he should play a significant role in their offense.
The Vikings found their deep threat in Stefon Diggs in the 2015 draft, and now they have their possession receiver.
Treadwell is actually better suited to play the No. 1 receiver role in the Vikings offense due to Teddy Bridgewater's skill set at quarterback. Since Bridgewater lacks an elite arm to stretch the field, the Vikings likely went into the draft specifically looking to find a big, physical receiver to play on the outside.
While Treadwell probably won't produce many big plays, he should see a high volume of targets and emerge as one of Bridgewater's go-to targets in the red zone.
Projected stat line: 72 rec, 725 yards, 7 TD.
Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns are in full rebuilding mode, so it's tough to get too excited about anyone on their roster from a fantasy perspective. However, someone has to catch the ball on offense, and if Josh Gordon remains suspended, then Corey Coleman is going to play a significant role.
The Browns added four wide receivers on draft weekend and clearly made an effort to add speed in an attempt to play to Robert Griffin III's ability to stretch the field with his arm strength. This push to generate big plays bodes well for Coleman's ability to make an immediate impact in Cleveland.
Transitioning to the NFL from Baylor's offense isn't easy for a wide receiver. Baylor receivers run a severely limited version of the route tree, but if Coleman's primary role is to stretch the field, then he should still be able to make an early impact.
If Gordon returns, then drop Coleman's projected stats down a notch, but he would likely remain the No. 2 option in the offense even in that scenario.
Projected stat line: 62 rec, 818 yards, 5 TD.
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Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
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Tyler Boyd couldn't have landed in a better situation for making an immediate impact, and he could outperform many of the first-round wide receivers while in Cincinnati.
The Bengals need to replace 152 targets (30 percent of their total pass attempts) that went to Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu last season. Sanu and Jones signed with the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions, respectively, this offseason.
That workload will fall on Boyd and Brandon LaFell, and the two will likely spend training camp battling for a starting job on the outside with the loser sliding into the role in the slot.
Boyd is an explosive runner after the catch, which may actually make him best suited for the slot role. But regardless of where he lands, there will be targets available this season.
Projected stat line: 48 rec, 520 yards, 4 TD.
Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins
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Projecting Josh Doctson's rookie season in Washington is tough. He's arguably the most NFL-ready receiver in this year's draft class due to his combination of size, route-running skills and hands. But he enters a crowded depth chart behind DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon.
The one area where Doctson can immediately gain an edge is in the red zone.
Tight end Jordan Reed led the Redskins with 23 red-zone targets a season ago, according to NFLSavant.com, followed by Garcon's 17. But the 6'0" Garcon hauled in just eight of those targets.
Doctson's fantasy production will likely be a roller-coaster ride during his rookie year since his output will be touchdown-driven, but the upside is there for some big games.
It's also worth noting that Doctson's value in dynasty leagues is substantially higher. Jackson hits the free-agent market after the 2016 season, which should open the door for Doctson to lock down the job as the Redskins' No. 1 receiver in 2017.
Projected stat line: 41 rec, 492 yards, 6 TD.
Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
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Will Fuller has a clear path to playing time in Houston, but expectations for immediate fantasy production should be limited.
The Texans are poised to be a run-based offense again in 2016, perhaps even more than a season ago due to the free-agent addition of running back Lamar Miller. In 2015, despite a revolving door at running back, Houston ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts.
When the Texans do throw the ball, DeAndre Hopkins will be on the receiving end of a significant portion of the targets.
Fuller's role will be to stretch the field, which works well with quarterback Brock Osweiler, who has the arm to target him down the field.
Due to his ability to hit the home run, Fuller will have some significant fantasy days, but he likely won't receive the volume of targets necessary to be a consistent producer on a weekly basis.
It's reasonable to expect some three-catch, 100-yard, two-touchdown performances from Fuller in 2016. But be prepared for even more two-catch, 18-yard outputs on days when the running game is going well and Osweiler fails to connect with him on the deep ball.
Projected stat line: 40 rec, 560 yards, 5 TD.
Hunter Henry, TE, San Diego Chargers
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The San Diego Chargers added Hunter Henry in the second round to replace Ladarius Green, who signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason, and to eventually take over for Antonio Gates.
Gates will likely remain the No. 1 tight end in San Diego's offense, but the Chargers use a lot of two-tight end sets and often rotate the aging Green off the field, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Henry.
In 2015, Green had 63 targets compared to Gates' 85, so there will still be a substantial workload available for Henry.
Henry struggles as a blocker in pass protection, which may have cut down on his snaps in a different offense, but San Diego is used to receiving minimal blocking production from the position with Green on the field. It's likely the Chargers won't view that as a concern, and it shouldn't affect his playing time.
Entering the year, Henry's projected stats should be fairly modest, but since he'll be backing up the 35-year-old Gates, there is potential for increased playing time as the season wears on and the Chargers try to keep Gates fresh.
Projected stat line: 40 rec, 420 yards, 3 TD.
C.J. Prosise, RB, Seattle Seahawks
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C.J. Prosise will start the year as Thomas Rawls' backup in Seattle, but he has the skill set to provide some value even in a reserve role.
Rawls had just 11 receptions in college and nine during his rookie year in Seattle, and it's possible the Seahawks targeted Prosise—a former wide receiver—specifically to fill that talent gap in their backfield.
Since Rawls is more of a downhill runner, Prosise offers the Seahawks more versatility in the backfield, which could allow him to fill the Fred Jackson role. In 2015, Jackson caught 32 passes on 41 targets in a reserve role.
It's also worth noting that we still don't really know much about Rawls.
He was only a one-year starter in college and was wildly inconsistent during his seven starts filling in for Marshawn Lynch in 2015. In fact, 46 percent of Rawls' rushing yards a season ago came in two games, against the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals.
The realistic expectation for Prosise should be as a pass-catching backup to Rawls, but he definitely will have an opportunity to steal the starting job should Rawls falter out of the gate.
Projected stat line: 79 rush att, 308 yards, 3 TD; 40 rec, 344 yards, 2 TD.
Paul Perkins, RB, New York Giants
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Paul Perkins' fantasy production in 2016 could land him anywhere from emerging superstar to irrelevant backup. But the upside for production puts him on the radar screen entering the season.
The Giants return 31-year-old Rashad Jennings, who started all 16 games a season ago but was given just 195 carries. Backups Andre Williams and Shane Vereen, who both also return, received a combined 149 attempts.
So the bad news for Perkins is that he has three returning running backs in his way. But the good news is, there's little reason for the Giants to be excited about any of them.
Jennings is productive but getting up there in age, and the Giants clearly limited his workload to keep him fresh. Williams is a one-dimensional downhill runner with no value in the passing game, while Vereen is essentially the opposite, as he enters almost exclusively on passing downs.
Perkins fits in the Jennings mold as a well-rounded running back and will likely be viewed as the true backup for that reason. Should anything happen to Jennings, either injury or ineffectiveness, Perkins is the safe bet to step into the starting role.
In fantasy drafts, he should only be targeted as a handcuff for Jennings, but if he does end up with the starting job, then his production could easily exceed the modest numbers Jennings produces.
Projected stat line: 75 rush att, 307 yards, 3 TD; 19 rec, 190 yards.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
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It's tough to guess how the Tennessee Titans plan to use Derrick Henry, but he's on the fantasy radar due to his upside.
Tennessee acquired DeMarco Murray this offseason from the Philadelphia Eagles, presumably to make him its workhorse in the backfield. But the Titans' selection of Henry in the second round now raises questions as to how the coaching staff will balance both running backs.
Murray is 28 years old, so it's possible that the Titans drafted Henry as a long-term insurance plan. Henry's four-year rookie contract will likely extend beyond Murray's playing days in Tennessee, so there's no rush to put him on the field to justify the selection.
On another roster, Henry could be a potential touchdown vulture, but Murray is capable of finishing off drives himself.
Realistically, people should view Henry as strictly a handcuff for Murray this season with minimal value as long as Murray stays healthy.
Projected stat line: 50 rush att, 205 yards, 2 TD.
Other Notables: Quarterbacks
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Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff will win the starting job at some point, but don't expect any fantasy production. He isn't a serious threat to run, which is typically the attribute that allows rookie quarterbacks to achieve fantasy relevance. Goff's job will be to manage the game and hand off to Todd Gurley.
Projected stat line: 2,850 yards, 12 TD, 17 Int.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz only has value in dynasty leagues, and even there, his value is far more about his potential production in 2018 than 2016. Even if Sam Bradford gets traded, Wentz will likely sit behind Chase Daniel for the majority of the season.
Projected stat line: 3 starts, 630 yards, 3 TD, 5 Int.
Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos
It's hard to imagine the Broncos giving the reins of the offense to Lynch in 2016, unless injuries force their hand. This appears to be Mark Sanchez's job until Denver opens the position up to a competition in the summer of 2017.
Projected stat line: 0 starts.
Other Notables: Running Backs
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Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
2015 fifth-round pick Jay Ajayi will take over the starting gig, but Drake should be a versatile weapon in the offense. Drake has experience lining up in the slot at Alabama, which could allow the Dolphins to use him in a Reggie Bush-like role.
Projected stat line: 49 rush att, 185 yards; 12 rec, 118 yards.
Kenneth Dixon, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens drafted a running back in the fourth round for the third straight year, so don't mistake their selection of Dixon for an endorsement of his ability to produce. Dixon will compete for the backup job behind Justin Forsett, but it will be a tight competition with Lorenzo Taliaferro and Javorius Allen, not to mention Trent Richardson and Terrance West. Maybe Dixon wins the backup job, but he could also get cut.
Projected stat line: 40 rush att, 175 yards, 1 TD.
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos
The Broncos return their backfield of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, but the unit didn't inspire much confidence in 2015. Booker will likely start the season as the third-string running back, but if Anderson struggles out of the gate again in 2016, then Booker is a more well-rounded runner and better suited for a starting role than Hillman.
Projected stat line: 40 rush att, 160 yards, 1 TD.
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
With Matt Forte now with the New York Jets, the job in Chicago belongs to Jeremy Langford. Howard steps in as a fifth-round pick to compete for the backup job and could emerge as a touchdown vulture. At 6'0", 230 pounds, Howard has the size to be an excellent short-yardage back in Chicago. The Bears' other backups are 5'10" Ka'Deem Carey and 5'6" Jacquizz Rodgers, so it's easy to see what the Bears liked about Howard.
Projected stat line: 47 rush att, 155 yards, 3 TD.
Other Notables: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
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Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Hooper left Stanford after his redshirt-sophomore year and needs developing, especially as a blocker. But there's limited competition on the Falcons' depth chart at tight end. He'll start training camp behind Jacob Tamme and Levine Toilolo, but Hooper is the most dynamic receiver of the group.
Projected stat line: 22 rec, 206 yards, 2 TD.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
At 6'3", Thomas adds some much-needed height to the Saints' receiving corps. It's possible that the Saints view Thomas as a replacement for Marques Colston, who excelled by using his size and efficient route-running technique in the slot in recent years. He's a nice complement to the smaller Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead and could see a significant role at some point in 2016.
Projected stat line: 39 rec, 347 yards, 3 TD.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
If Victor Cruz is healthy and returns to form, then the best-case scenario for Shepard is to play the third-receiver role for New York. That hasn't been a stat-producing role in recent years for the likes of Preston Parker and Dwayne Harris. But due to Cruz's injury history, Shepard has some upside as a handcuff if you have room on your roster to stash him.
Projected stat line: 36 rec, 324 yards, 2 TD.
Leonte Carroo, WR, Miami Dolphins
Carroo was suspended twice in 2015 at Rutgers, including once for a domestic dispute arrest. So there are concerns about his reliability, but when he's on the field, he's among the most talented receivers in this class. He's stuck in a crowded unit in Miami, but his skill set works on the outside and in the slot. Carroo should earn some targets this year.
Projected stat line: 24 rec, 264 yards, 2 TD.
Braxton Miller, WR, Houston Texans
Miller is behind DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and battling veteran Cecil Shorts and 2015 third-round pick Jaelen Strong for playing time. There probably aren't enough targets to go around for Miller to be a fantasy factor unless he's able to get into the end zone. But this is a situation worth monitoring throughout the preseason. Miller is incredibly versatile, so it's possible the Texans drafted him knowing that head coach Bill O'Brien had a specific plan in mind.
Projected stat line: 17 rec, 238 yards, 1 TD; 12 rush att, 50 yards.
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.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
