Canelo vs. Khan: Expert Picks for the Main Event
It’s one of those watershed moments. Sort of.
The very idea that a big fight card is occurring in Las Vegas on the first weekend of May and Floyd Mayweather Jr. is not involved would be a significant story—had the former five-division champion not convinced nearly everyone recently that his retirement will be a short one.
Nevertheless, two men hoping to eventually fill a post-Money pay-per-view vacuum—Saul "Canelo" Alvarez and Amir Khan—will get together at the pristine new T-Mobile Arena on Saturday night, with designs on both the WBC middleweight title and top-of-mind status should Mayweather’s respite be brief.
Alvarez was a rugged champ at 154 pounds before losing to Mayweather in 2013. He then became the man-who-beat-the-man at 160 with a grinding 12-round decision over Miguel Cotto in November.
He’s 15-1 with nine knockouts since graduating from the welterweight ranks in 2010.
Khan, meanwhile, is a former 140-pound kingpin who’s rebuilt his career several times already—first after a 54-second loss to Breidis Prescott in 2008, then after consecutive defeats by Lamont Peterson (split decision) and Danny Garcia (fourth-round KO) in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
He’s 5-0 since that most recent defeat, including four consecutive 12-round-decision wins at welterweight—most recently against Chris Algieri last May 29 in Brooklyn, New York.
Saturday’s most compelling questions will revolve around whether Khan’s athletic skill set—among the most impressive at any weight—will be enough to offset the acumen and strength of Alvarez, who turned pro as a 15-year-old and has won all but one of 48 fights in a decade since.
Bleacher Report has gathered its community of boxing know-it-alls to render judgement. Have some thoughts of your own? Let us hear them in the comments.
Who Wins the Fight? When and How?
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Lyle Fitzsimmons
Pull the tools out of their respective toolboxes, and it's a safe bet that Khan's work bench fills up quicker. But Canelo is pretty good, too. And given the power he's shown against more durable opponents, it's simply hard to envision a scenario where Khan repeatedly absorbs solid shots and remains competitive.
He may be ahead on the scorecards at the halfway point, but it says here Khan will be the worse for wear en route to being dropped in the seventh and finished in the eighth.
Kelsey McCarson
The idea driven home by the promoters of the fight is that Khan’s speed will give Canelo trouble. That’s an overly simplistic view of the matchup, and even Khan knows he’ll need to be more than fast to beat Alvarez.
I like Canelo via Round 6 knockout. Khan is courageous, but timing beats speed, and once Alvarez lands on Khan’s chin, its good night to King Khan. It’s my great hope that this is the last PPV mismatch we have to endure this year as boxing fans.
Kevin McRae
Canelo Alvarez wins this fight by stoppage. It’s hard to see how Khan, a smaller fighter with well-documented issues in the chin department, doesn’t get starched by one of the Mexican champion’s signature hooks.
Khan will hang around for a bit through the product of his speed and a game plan that calls for him to be elusive and limit engagements, but he gets knocked out in the first half of the fight. Let’s call it a sixth-round stoppage win (of the emphatic variety) for Canelo.
Briggs Seekins
Amir Khan has been knocked out twice, at 135 and 140 pounds. Now he's facing a big puncher at 155, so it's an easy pick to say he'll get knocked out by Canelo. It's almost conventional wisdom to say that Khan has a weak chin. But I think the bigger issue is that he allows himself to get drawn into risky exchanges.
I think Khan will do a good job using his speed to stay away from Canelo, who, it's worth noting, has gotten better and better at cutting off the ring. Alvarez is going to manage to put in some good shots to Khan's body, and Khan will in turn fall back on instinct and trade punches, leaving him open to a counter. I think Canelo knocks Khan out in Round 9.
Jonathan Snowden
Canelo undergoes an interesting transformation when in the ring with mobile boxers that could have a huge impact on this fight. Rather than attempt to force them into a firefight, he goes into "pure boxing" mode. Against Erislandy Lara, he survived this unfortunate inclination, albeit by the skin of his teeth. In the ring with the masterful Floyd Mayweather, however, he was less lucky.
Canelo is at his best when opponents are coming right at him. Amir Khan won't. That's going to potentially make this a closer fight than many are anticipating. Still, Canelo will manage to get a knockout in Round 9.
The Moment We’ll Remember Most Is…
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Fitzsimmons: When Max Kellerman goes there—asking Canelo directly if he's willing to fight Gennady Golovkin as the cameras pan to the Kazakhstan slugger. Team GGG swears there won't be a confrontation, but something tells me there's enough tension to at least lead to some heated, testosterone-fueled words.
McCarson: I think we’ll remember most the undercard bout between David Lemieux and Glen Tapia. Those guys can bang, and I really think it might be a Fight of the Year candidate once things get going. I wouldn’t be surprised if it overshadowed the main event, ultimately, as it’s a much better matchup.
McRae: You can bet your last dollar that Max Kellerman will step into the ring after the fight and ask Canelo about his desire to face Gennady Golovkin in the fall. It’s probably the biggest question in boxing right now, and, knowing Canelo, he won’t back down. Whether he fights him in the fall, however, remains the $64,000 question.
Seekins: When Max Kellerman climbs in the ring after the fight and asks Canelo if he's going to fight Gennady Golovkin. Alvarez will rise to the bait and answer with bravado. The camera will pan to GGG sitting somewhere near ringside, smiling widely. The crowd will explode with cheers. That doesn't mean they are going to fight anytime soon, though.
Snowden: Unfortunately for his legion of fans, Khan does get hit. Julio Diaz and Algieri tagged him over and over again—and neither man is Canelo. Eventually, the Mexican superstar will land heavy. What happens next will be the moment that imprints on us all. Who doesn't remember a truly spectacular knockout?
Will This Fight Establish Canelo as Boxing's Top PPV Draw?
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Fitzsimmons: Maybe. Perhaps. Probably. The fact is, now that Manny [Pacquiao] and Floyd are done, no other fighter is an absolute lock to generate high six-figure or even seven-figure buyrates. But to suggest that Canelo isn't near the top of the new heap is silly. He rode shotgun to Mayweather on a huge seller and wasn't just a bit part.
McCarson: If Mayweather and Pacquiao remain retired, I think Alvarez will hold that mantle for the next few years. In fact, as both are theoretically retired right now, I think he probably already does hold it. He’s a good, young and popular fighter with a built-in Mexican fanbase.
McRae: No, but only because he already holds that title. Few things draw better than a young, popular and exciting Mexican champion, and Canelo has all of those categories on lock. He’s the biggest PPV draw in the sport and will remain so.
Seekins: Canelo was established as boxing's top pay-per-view draw last month when Manny Pacquiao retired. That doesn't mean he's going to start selling like Manny and Floyd did anytime soon, although he might do better than they did in their final fights, even against Khan. He certainly will if he fights a truly compelling opponent.
Snowden: Canelo is already boxing's top pay-per-view draw. That says more about the state of boxing, however, than it does about Canelo. This fight will struggle somewhat at the box office, hopefully reminding Team Canelo that it takes two to make a thing go right.
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Who Will Canelo Fight Next? When and Where?
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Fitzsimmons: This just in…it won't be the answer Golovkin is looking for. Instead, he'll opt for a Mayweather rematch that'll be branded as Floyd fighting the new and improved lineal middleweight kingpin—and the Ring Magazine champion—in a quest for jewelry in his sixth weight class in September at AT&T Stadium.
McCarson: I think Canelo will face Lemieux next. That would be a pretty good foray into competing at the 160-pound limit, and if he shows well in that fight, he might conceivably be ready to face Gennady Golovkin early next year. We need to see how Alvarez’s power is handled by a legit middleweight. Lemieux fits the bill.
McRae: Canelo vs. GGG is the biggest fight that can be made in the sport, but I just don’t think Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya, who handles Alvarez, is sold on that one happening this year. You’re entitled to feel any way you choose about that and the reasons behind it. No, Canelo will not face Golovkin, but he will face Manny Pacquiao in a big-money fight on PPV this fall.
Seekins: Canelo should fight Gennady Golovkin next. That's who he should be fighting this weekend, but I don't think he'll do it. If Pacquiao wants to end his retirement almost as soon as he announced it, I could see him cashing in against Canelo. I wouldn't faint from shock if Canelo fought Mayweather in a rematch for his next fight. And I can't help noticing that former IBF champion David Lemieux is on the undercard here in a fight he is nearly guaranteed to win by knockout. Whoever Canelo fights next, it's going to be in Vegas.
Snowden: For Canelo to truly become a global superstar, it has to be Gennady Golovkin. Any other fight, save a bout with Manny Pacquiao or Mayweather, would be a huge disappointment.
Who Will Khan Fight Next? When and Where?
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Fitzsimmons: There's certainly no shame in daring to be great, which is what Khan is doing by fighting Alvarez. So losing won't take him out of a quest for welterweight relevance. He'll line up opposite former conqueror Danny Garcia on a Premier Boxing Champions card in Las Vegas in early December.
McCarson: Khan will go back down to welterweight, where he’ll have a slew of good options. I think he’ll take a "gimme" fight against someone like Robert Guerrero to set up a showdown with Keith Thurman. A bout between Khan and Thurman would help decide the future of the welterweight division, and the winner would preferably face Danny Garcia next.
McRae: Khan really doesn’t have a ton to lose here. He wins and it’s a huge upset, he loses and it was supposed to happen. He’s got some house money to play with and would be smart to finally get together with Kell Brook on a huge welterweight showdown in a stadium across the pond. The money is too huge to pass up, and it’s a good matchup.
Seekins: If I'm right in my prediction and Khan gets knocked out, not many people are even going to care who he fights next. He'll likely take the rest of the year off and fight a second-tier contender early in 2017. I actually think it would be fair for Khan to get a rematch with Danny Garcia at some point, and I'd be interested in seeing that bout.
Snowden: Khan has an ace in his pocket by the name of Kell Brook. As long as he doesn't totally embarrass himself, that fight looms as a megabout in the United Kingdom.
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