2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down NBA Future of Vanderbilt's Damian Jones
Former Vanderbilt center Damian Jones will either make NBA general managers kick themselves for passing on him years from now or make the GM who did pull the trigger feel duped.
There aren't a lot of guys running around with his combination of size and speed. In a weak 2016 draft class (particularly at the center position), Jones could be a worthy gamble who could eventually turn into a starting center.
"I think his potential is interesting because he has size and mobility, but he hasn't put it all together yet," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report.
Jones is a layup-line All-Star. He looks like a pro—a 7-footer with a chiseled frame and springy legs. "He's a phenomenal runner," a second scout told B/R. "He's one of the fastest guys I've seen end-to-end."
But that "hasn't put it all together yet" part explains the hesitation.
| Age | 20 (Born June 30, 1995) |
| College team | Vanderbilt |
| Height | 7'0" |
| Weight | 245 lbs |
The possibilities that type of athleticism presents have allowed Jones to be considered a first-round pick—maybe even lottery-bound—over the last two years.
But this past season his stock took a hit. Jones didn't show any real development from his sophomore to junior season (in fact, his points per game went down a tick from 14.4 to 13.9).
Vandy had a potential-laden lineup that included Jones, Wade Baldwin IV (another likely first-round pick) and a third future pro prospect in 7'1" skilled center Luke Kornet. Vandy surrounded that trio with a bunch of capable three-point shooters.
On paper, that was a top-10-caliber team. On the floor, the Commodores were one of the most disappointing teams in college basketball, nearly missing the NCAA tournament. They made the play-in game, getting run off the court by Wichita State, and the season of mediocrity chased coach Kevin Stallings to Pittsburgh.
Jones' size and athleticism still make him an intriguing option in the draft, but with measured optimism. Is he a project who will excel in the right environment? Or are Vandy's struggles and his lack of development signs that he'll flame out in the league?
Relevant Stats
| 13.9 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 59.0 | 53.6 |
While Jones was inconsistent scoring the ball, he did put up solid shooting numbers from the field. He was particularly strong finishing around the basket, making 75 percent of his attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
Considering Jones' athleticism and length, his rebounding and shot-blocking numbers are mediocre. Compared to those of some of the other top center prospects, he ranks on the low end in both.
| Deyonta Davis, Michigan State | 13.6 | 19.0 | 10.2 |
| Cheick Diallo, Kansas | 10.4 | 27.2 | 11.9 |
| A.J. Hammons, Purdue | 11.5 | 24.8 | 10.4 |
| Prince Ibeh, Texas | 13.8 | 18.0 | 11.9 |
| Damian Jones, Vandy | 9.9 | 17.3 | 5.9 |
| Skal Labissiere, UK | 7.3 | 14.6 | 10.3 |
| Daniel Ochefu, Villanova | 11.3 | 25.6 | 3.6 |
| Jakob Poeltl, Utah | 11.8 | 22.1 | 4.8 |
| Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga | 11.6 | 28.2 | 2.7 |
| Diamond Stone, Maryland | 12.9 | 15.3 | 7.2 |
| Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV | 9.0 | 26.1 | 7.2 |
Vandy's opponents had an effective field-goal percentage of 43.1, which ranked second nationally, according to KenPom.com. When evaluating a rim protector, it is a bit shortsighted to only look at shot-blocking numbers. And as the best interior defender on the team, Jones deserves some credit for holding opponents to low percentages.
But the low rebounding numbers, presumably one of the main responsibilities of Jones as an NBA center, are a real concern.
Strengths
No one is expecting Jones to be a superstar at the NBA level. An offense is not going to run through him, so some of his limitations at the college level won't matter.
Jones projects as a mobile center suited for the pick-and-roll and 17-foot jumpers. His touch is passable for a player of his size, better than his free-throw percentage (53.6 percent as a junior) would suggest.
The best thing Jones does right now is finish around the bucket when given the opportunity. He can gather quickly and capitalize when the defense is a step behind.
His back-to-the-basket game is not far along enough that an NBA team is going to trust him with regular post-up touches, but he flashes potential there. He has quick feet, and when he decides to execute a move and doesn't overthink things, he can look fluid.
Weaknesses
Most of the time, Jones doesn't look so smooth when operating from the blocks.
"His problem is he's very methodical in what he does," the second scout said. "He's not an instinctual player. As far as having the feel of what to do and when to do it, he doesn't have a large skill set beyond dunking and finishing lay-ins and a right-hand hook."
A big question mark is whether he will be able to improve some of these limitations. He was a successful student at Vanderbilt, majoring in engineering science, and he's definitely intelligent. But that doesn't necessarily translate to the court.
"For being such an intelligent person off the court, he doesn't play like he has a high basketball IQ," the second scout said. "He's not a guy you throw the ball into and he's making great passes to other players or [who has] this crazy skill set.
"He's one of those guys who might be too smart for his own good. He overthinks everything."
This is sometimes apparent on the defensive end, particularly when Jones is a help defender. He can get lost in no man's land trying to decide whether to stop penetration or stay back with his man, and he'll end up not making a decision.
The hope would be that these are things coaching could correct, and his length and mobility will give him a chance to be a plus defender.
To reach his ceiling offensively, Jones needs to clean up some bad habits.
"He shoots everything below his head," the first scout said. "Even his hook shot is below his shoulders. He doesn't play with the ball above his head."
NBA Player Comparison
"Nobody jumps out," the second scout said. "He's one of those [7'0"] athletes who comes out every few years. He can run. He can jump."
The other scout brought up the Lopez twins as a possible comp, and Robin Lopez, more so than Brook, isn't a bad one.
Similar to Jones, Robin is limited in what he can do on the offensive end. He showed better shot-blocking ability at Stanford but didn't put up great scoring (10.2 PPG) or rebounding numbers (5.7 RPG) during his final season in Palo Alto.
Best-Case Scenario
Whoever drafts Jones would likely take a career similar to that of Robin Lopez, who has turned into a starting center over the last four seasons.
Jones has the potential to be a good defensive center and a weapon as a pick-and-roll guy if he learns how to utilize his quickness and length on defense, simplifies things on offense and improves his jumper. His offensive ceiling is somewhere below Brook and above Robin.
Worst-Case Scenario
"I hope he's not Patrick O'Bryant, where he just doesn't like basketball," a scout said. That's the fear when a player has the NBA's attention going into a season like Jones did this past year and doesn't show much improvement.
The other worst-case scenario is that Jones doesn't pick up concepts fast enough for an NBA coach to trust him. He's a good candidate for developing in the D-League, and it's not unimaginable that he'll end up stuck there.
Prediction
Most mock drafts have Jones going somewhere in the 20s, and it's hard to see him slipping to the second round. The Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets, Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers all have the need for potential interior depth, with multiple big men on each roster entering free agency this offseason.
Those are all teams that have done a good job with player development, and Jones needs a franchise that is willing to put in the work on that end. If he lands in the right spot, he should be a serviceable backup center for a long time, with a chance to eventually become a starter.
Getting that kind of value in the 20s would be a win for whatever team pulls the trigger.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @CJMooreBR.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
