NBA Restricted Free Agents Likely to Change Teams During 2016 Offseason
Andre Drummond isn't going anywhere, since the Detroit Pistons will surely match any offer sheet he signs once he becomes a restricted free agent this summer. Ditto for Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards.
But some restricted free agents will end up in new locations.
We're interested in those who have a serious chance at suiting up for new squads in 2016-17 and immediately making an impact in the rotation (sorry, Tim Frazier, Jorge Gutierrez, Tarik Black, Cleanthony Early, etc.).
According to NBA.com's Free Agent Tracker, 21 restricted free agents signed new contracts in the Association last offseason, but only two joined different teams (9.5 percent)—Kyle O'Quinn left the Orlando Magic for the New York Knicks, while Jeff Withey went from the New Orleans Pelicans to the Utah Jazz. During the 2014 offseason, 17 restricted free agents inked new NBA contracts (17.6 percent), but only Trevor Booker, Chandler Parsons and Isaiah Thomas changed uniforms.
This summer, a whopping 40 players are hitting the open market as restricted free agents, opening up a legitimate possibility that as many as five (or more) could leave their current locations.
Harrison Barnes
1 of 5
Team: Golden State Warriors
Position: SF
Age at Start of 2016-17: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks
"Somebody's going to give him the max," Andrew Bogut said about Harrison Barnes in late March, per CSNBayArea.com's Monte Poole. "Let's be honest: Someone's going to give him close to the max. There's always a small-market team that would love a guy like Harrison as their No. 1 or No. 2 option."
Bogut's much smaller teammate certainly hasn't played like he deserves max money.
The small forward has failed to make much visible progress, struggling with his shot and regressing both on the glass and as a defensive stopper. According to NBAMath.com's total points added (TPA), the North Carolina product finally became an above-average contributor in 2014-15, but he's since seen his production plummet:
| 2012-13 | Minus-97.25 |
| 2013-14 | Minus-61.84 |
| 2014-15 | 52.2 |
| 2015-16 | Minus-8.44 |
Though that's not the type of growth NBA squads desire, Barnes could still break out.
At least, that should be the opinion of some teams, given his pedigree, athleticism and ability to briefly thrive on both ends of the floor. Maybe freeing him from the Golden State Warriors, who give his touches to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, could finally allow him to blossom.
Someone will be tempted, and the Warriors will then be forced into a tough decision: Do they want to pay an exorbitant fee to match the offer sheet and keep the core together?
If they still covet Kevin Durant, as The Vertical reported in February, they won't.
Evan Fournier
2 of 5
Team: Orlando Magic
Position: SG/SF
Age at Start of 2016-17: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals
Evan Fournier has a place in the Orlando Magic rotation—especially if the price tag doesn't rise too high.
"Big priority," general manager Rob Hennigan said about re-signing the young swingman, per Philip Rossman-Reich of Orlando Magic Daily. "One of our biggest if not our biggest priority this summer is to make sure Evan stays with us. We're confident we'll be able to do that."
Unfortunately, Fournier is exactly the type of scorer small-market teams in dire need of an offensive punch will be targeting, leading to exorbitant contract offers from organizations such as the Philadelphia 76ers. After all, he's coming off a season in which he averaged 15.4 points while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc, often taking the lead in crunch-time situations.
"The 76ers' best plan of attack may be to target mid-tier talent—players who haven't completely established themselves yet, but have each shown they are legit a [sic] NBA talent with an intriguing ceiling," Tommy Beer wrote for Basketball Insiders before listing Fournier as an option who fits the criteria at shooting guard.
It only takes one franchise to have substantial interest, whether that's Philadelphia, the New Orleans Pelicans, the Phoenix Suns, etc. One measly offer sheet could push him out of Orlando's budget, even if Hennigan is swimming in cash this offseason—cash that should be earmarked for true impact players.
The Magic already have Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo entrenched at the guard positions, and Mario Hezonja needs playing time as he gains more NBA experience. Throw in Aaron Gordon's ability to line up at the 3 in bigger lineups, and there aren't nearly enough minutes to go around with a highly paid Fournier back in the fold.
Terrence Jones
3 of 5
Team: Houston Rockets
Position: PF
Age at Start of 2016-17: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.8 blocks
What a difference a year can make. At the end of the 2014-15 campaign, Terrence Jones' stock was higher than ever.
Though he battled injuries throughout the season, he showed flashes of two-way potential whenever healthy, dominating as a rim protector and knocking down 35.1 percent of his three-point attempts as he developed into more of a stretch 4. The Houston Rockets' net rating even improved by 0.9 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.
His encore didn't go so well. Injuries held him back once again, but his minutes didn't have nearly the same positive impact.
Jones shot just 45.2 percent from the field and 31.6 percent from beyond the arc. Per NBA.com's SportVU data, he allowed opponents to knock down 51.6 percent of their shots at the rim. Among the nine Rockets who faced at least two close-range shots per game, only James Harden and Trevor Ariza were more porous.
Houston's offensive and defensive ratings were 5.9 and 8.9 points per 100 possessions worse, respectively, with him on the floor. Helping the team's net rating drop from 4.0 to minus-10.8 won't exactly make his former employers want to extend him a new contract offer.
But someone will.
The lefty power forward won't celebrate his 25th birthday until January, and we're not that far removed from his ceiling looking significantly higher. Upside plays rather well during the free-agency period, even if he may have—justifiably—fallen out of favor in Houston.
Jared Sullinger
4 of 5
Team: Boston Celtics
Position: PF
Age at Start of 2016-17: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks
"Sometimes you just don't want a change of scenery," Jared Sullinger told MassLive.com's Jay King in late February. "When you play for the greatest franchise in the NBA and you see all those banners and all the fans, you don't want to leave that place, because it's a special place in your heart. It's the first team I've played for in the NBA—hopefully it'll be my last."
The big man might want to remain with the Boston Celtics, but do they want him? That's far more questionable, though not necessarily because of his skill set.
Sullinger is a terrific presence on the boards, and his willingness to fire away from the perimeter opens up driving lanes for the offense. He might not be hitting his three-point attempts at an impressive clip, but it's still notable that he knocked down 39.8 percent of his two-point tries from beyond 16 feet, and that was a significant step back from 2014-15's 47.5 percent.
Though the 24-year-old is by no means a star, he's still a solid rotation big who could start for plenty of teams. In the right system, his style of play would be maximized, and he'd be able to spend a bit more time working on the interior, using his size, strength and derriere to bully smaller power forwards.
His improving defense has made him a legitimate asset in Beantown, but the frontcourt rotation is still overstuffed. Even with Sullinger and Tyler Zeller coming off the books, general manager Danny Ainge has Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Kelly Olynyk and Jordan Mickey at his disposal—and that's saying nothing of the top-tier free agents Boston might pursue to bolster its rotation, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski (cough, Al Horford, cough).
Dion Waiters
5 of 5
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Position: SG
Age at Start of 2016-17: 24
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 9.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks
Don't be fooled by the scoring numbers.
Dion Waiters has been a gunner ever since he entered the NBA, and that didn't change while he was with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
He averaged only 12.7 points per 36 minutes while shooting 39.9 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from beyond the arc, making him one of only five qualified players this year to average fewer than 13 points and more than 11.5 shots per 36 minutes.
Waiters did finish in the 73rd percentile as a spot-up marksman, per NBA.com's SportVU data. It's when he's controlling the rock that he experiences trouble, ranking in the 43.3 percentile for isolation plays and the 30.3 percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to realize this, as those two play types account for 15.2 and 25.4 percent of his possessions, respectively.
But even with all the red flags, someone will give him a chance to serve as a viable scorer—a role he'll struggle to fill if he remains with the Oklahoma City Thunder and they continue to roster either Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant.
"He wants to come home [to the Philadelphia 76ers]," an anonymous source told Keith Pompey of Philly.com, referring to Waiters' background as a native of the city. "Plus, he knows that he could be the missing shooting guard they need. And he could possibly get a [very lucrative] contract with the Sixers."
OKC knows how it wants to use Waiters, and it's telling he's been mired in an offense-defense timeshare with Andre Roberson that sees both wings play less than 30 minutes per game. It's even more revealing that Roberson's minutes went up and Waiters' went down during the Thunder's first-round victory over the Dallas Mavericks.
If he wants to return on a discount deal and continue filling the same role, he would almost surely have a place. But that doesn't seem likely, particularly because there could soon be mutual interest with a scoring-starved team such as the 76ers.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com or NBAMath.com.
