Notre Dame-Washington: Irish Favored By Too Much Against Huskies

Certain things just stand out.

I was shocked when South Florida got snubbed by the pollsters this week and didn't make the top 25. I felt the same way upon learning that Las Vegas odds makers installed Notre Dame as a 13-point favorite over Washington this week.

The Vegas odds makers are the best. If they did the rankings, we wouldn't have any problem finding the two best teams in the country at the end of the year and we certainly wouldn't have the mess that the Coaches Poll has become.

But I'm going against them big time. Thirteen points is way too much to give away if one is betting on the Irish to defeat the Huskies on Saturday.

These teams are just too similar to make one of them almost a two touchdown favorite!

Everyone knows about Notre Dame's junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen. Clausen's having a bang-up year and he's taken the Irish on his shoulders to pull out close wins over Michigan State and Purdue.

Clausen has done everything asked of him—he's only thrown one interception this season, his quarterback rating is flying off the charts, and he played the last game with a real bad case of turf toe.

Don't get me wrong, he hasn't done it all by himself.

His wide outs are some of the best in the country and 6'6" junior tight end Kyle Rudolph is as large a target as a quarterback could wish for. There is no doubt Rudolph is a sure-fire first day NFL pick when he gets drafted.

Washington's Jake Locker is lesser known than Clausen. He was hurt most of last season, but the junior is healthy and starting to get noticed.

Locker is the same size as Clausen—6'3" and weighs about the same at 225 pounds. He's thrown for about 100 yards less this season and his completion percentage is a little lower at 58 percent to Clausen's 66 percent.

Locker has an extra dimension to his game that Clausen does not—he can run.

While Clausen has run for negative yardage this season, Locker ran 12 times for 54 yards against LSU in the season opener.  He'll run for positive yardage if he sees an opening.

His receivers are young. James Johnson (6'1'') has pulled in 19 passes for 220 yards and sophomore Jermaine Kearse (6'1'') has caught 11 passes for 182 yards.

Locker impressed USC's coach Pete Carroll so much in Washington's upset over his Trojans that Carroll, in an ESPN article, called Locker "the best quarterback we've played in nine years." He went on to say that if Locker was healthy last year, "Willingham would still be coaching."

Both teams have had rather opposite starts to the 2009 season.

Notre Dame has been a mild disappointment, struggling to win games against two relatively average teams (Michigan State and Purdue), while Washington, up until its loss to Stanford, was considered the biggest surprise of the season with the USC win and a tough loss to LSU.

There is going to be a lot of scoring in Saturday's game. Both teams like to throw the ball and both teams have lots of trouble stopping their opponents from throwing.

Notre Dame has given up over 250 passing yards per game this season. Washington has done better—they've allowed 185 passing yards per game.

Notre Dame has done better stopping the run. They've allowed 130 rushing yards per game and Washington has allowed 195 rushing yards per game.

Both teams are similar, but there are differences.

The biggest one is probably that Washington has performed against a much tougher schedule. They played two top 10 teams, while Notre Dame has not played anyone close to a top 10 opponent.

Washington opened against LSU and gave them all they wanted in a 31-23 defeat before beating USC, 16-13.

Notre Dame lost to Michigan in the last minute of a 38-34 game that elevated the Wolverines to the top 25.

Another difference is, while Washington suffered a disappointing 34-14 road loss to Stanford last Saturday, Notre Dame won an inspired last-minute road victory against Purdue.

Washington is very young at the skilled positions and relies on freshman 220-pounder Chris Polk to do the running. Polk has gained 316 yards this season, most of them on tough inside runs.

It's hard to tell if the point spread is so high because the odds makers feel Washington is young and lost its only road game of the season, or if they feel that Notre Dame Stadium is just too tough for any visiting team.

But there are two other variables that figure into the equation—one being the let-down factor that Notre Dame might suffer after the dramatic Purdue win, and the other being the distraction of USC being the next game on the Irish's schedule.

No matter how you cut it, I see these teams as very close in talent and very close in performance. I see this game going deep into the fourth quarter before it is decided.