NBA Draft Lottery 2016: Projected Order and Odds for Every Team Involved
There is a reason the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs are the two best teams in the NBA this season and the two most recent franchises to lift up the Larry O’Brien Trophy—they draft well.
The Warriors landed the foursome of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes in various NBA drafts, and they proceeded to become the top four scorers on the team that broke the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ all-time record with 73 wins this season.
The Spurs drafted Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and that threesome is now nearly as synonymous with San Antonio as the Alamo itself.
Even the Eastern Conference’s top team in the Cleveland Cavaliers drafted LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, although James won his two championship rings with the Miami Heat.
It cannot be overstated how important drafting the right building blocks is in the NBA, and this season was more proof of that. The fate of the franchises that are in this year’s lottery will rest on the lucky bounce of the ping-pong balls, although choosing the right player is even more important than landing the top pick.
With that in mind, here is a look at the projected order and odds for the teams in the lottery, courtesy of Chad Ford of ESPN.com (as of Thursday at 1:30 a.m. ET), as well as some teams that are primed for quick turnarounds if they land a favorable playmaker in the draft.
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | 25 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | 19.9 |
| 3 | Boston Celtics | 15.6 |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | 11.9 |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 8.8 |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | 6.3 |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 4.3 |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | 1.9 |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors | 1.9 |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1.9 |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | 0.8 |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 0.7 |
| 13 | Washington Wizards | 0.6 |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | 0.5 |
Lottery Teams Primed for Quick Turnarounds
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season, but we are still talking about a franchise that is only missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2007-08 season. It wasn’t that long ago the Bulls were battling LeBron James in a tightly contested postseason series last year, and a couple of tweaks or additions could have them right back there.
Part of the problem for the Bulls this season was how many injuries they suffered. Former Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah was lost for the season, while Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol, Mike Dunleavy, Nikola Mirotic and Taj Gibson all missed chunks of time with their own ailments.
If Chicago remains relatively healthy next season and adds an impact player in the lottery, it should be back in the playoff picture.
What’s more, Noah is a free agent this offseason, and Gasol has a player option on his contract. If they both sign elsewhere, the Bulls will have the opportunity to go younger and build around Butler and other youngsters, including a potential lottery pick in this draft.
Rookie Bobby Portis has shown flashes of double-double potential at times this season, and the 24-year-old Doug McDermott is a lethal three-point shooter who will ideally improve with more experience. Butler himself is only 26 years old, and Rose is 27 and played more games in 2015-16 than he did in any campaign since his MVP season in 2010-11.
If Chicago adds an impact frontcourt player alongside Portis in the draft (such as Utah’s Jakob Poeltl or Ivan Rabb), it will still have a talented enough core to be a serious factor in the Eastern Conference as soon as next season.
Milwaukee Bucks
It is all about young talent with superstar potential for the Milwaukee Bucks, especially since budding playmakers Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker are only 21 years old.
Antetokounmpo is a triple-double threat already and was averaging 16.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals per game coming into play Wednesday. He is the type of player a rebuilding team can build around for the long-term future, and he is versatile enough to essentially play every position even though he is a 6’11” big man.
Parker was the No. 2 overall pick in 2014 and remained largely healthy this season after he only played 25 games as a rookie. Parker was averaging 14 points and 5.2 rebounds a night coming into play Wednesday in what was essentially his first campaign in the NBA.
The Bucks also have 25-year-old center Greg Monroe as a double-double machine and 24-year-old Khris Middleton as a dangerous guard. Middleton actually led the team in scoring with 18.4 points per game (entering play Wednesday) this season and can stretch the defense from three-point range or attack the rim off the bounce.
The core is already in place for Milwaukee, which is often the hardest part for small-market teams that are looking to build a foundation. This team should contend in the Eastern Conference with the addition of another piece or two in the draft.
Along those lines, DraftExpress had the Bucks selecting Marquette power forward Henry Ellenson in a mock draft on its April 8 update. Ellenson could step right into the rotation as a high-scoring big man (17 points per night) who could help Monroe patrol the boards (9.7 rebounds per game).
What’s more, Bucks coach Jason Kidd already recognized the end of this season was an opportunity to build toward a promising future, per Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
"We're playing for something. Also we need to get better. We want to be playing next season (for the playoffs).
Not saying this is spring training but we need to simulate certain situations. Second and third, and we need to advance the runners. We need to figure out how to win games.
"
Adding another game-changing young talent in the lottery will help the young Bucks figure out how to win games.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The basketball world was put on alert on April 5 when the Minnesota Timberwolves walked into Oracle Arena and did the unthinkable—beat the Golden State Warriors on their home floor. It was only the Warriors’ second home loss of the season, and Minnesota’s promising future was on full display.
Rookie of the Year favorite Karl-Anthony Towns posted a double-double with 20 points and 12 rebounds, Andrew Wiggins stuffed the stat sheet with 32 points, six steals, five rebounds and four assists, Zach LaVine drilled four three-pointers on his way to 16 points and Ricky Rubio directed the offense with nine assists.
Even Shabazz Muhammad poured in 35 points off the bench.
The best part about that game for the Timberwolves was the fact not a single one of those players is older than 25 years old. If Minnesota can keep that core together and add another piece in the lottery, it could compete for a postseason spot as soon as next season.
The talent fits around each other perfectly with Rubio as a pass-first point guard, Wiggins and LaVine as wing scorers and Towns as a potentially dominant big man for years to come.
Zach Harper of CBS Sports underscored just how good of a player Towns can become Tuesday:
"The standard Towns has established for himself necessitates this maniacal commitment. Per 100 possessions, he's scoring 28.6 points, grabbing 16.5 rebounds and blocking 2.7 shots. Three rookies have done that in NBA history: Towns, Shaq and Duncan. Throw in Towns' 3.1 assists per 100 possessions and Shaq is no longer in this group; it's just Duncan and Towns. Add in Towns' 1.1 steals per 100 possessions, and it's just him all alone since 1973-74, which is as far back as Basketball-Reference goes for this stuff.
If straight per-game numbers are your thing, he's the 26th rookie to average 18 points and 10 rebounds. Filter it with his 54 percent from the field and it's back to just him, Shaq and Duncan. Swap out field goal percentage for true shooting percentage (59.1 percent) and it's just him and David Robinson. It's unfair, admittedly, to compare rookies with names like these. Too soon for expectations like that. But everything about Towns' rookie season forces you to think about greatness.
"
Just imagine adding another top-notch prospect to that greatness in this year’s draft.
