NBA Playoffs 2016: 1st-Round Schedule, TV Info and Underrated Potential Series
Things we know: The NBA playoffs begin Saturday. The Cleveland Cavaliers will be the No. 1 seed in the East, the Golden State Warriors in the West. The Toronto Raptors and San Antonio Spurs are locked into their respective No. 2 seeds.
Looking further down, though, there's a whole lot more to be decided. Seeds Nos. 3-8 are all up for grabs in the East. The Atlanta Hawks have the inside track at the No. 3 spot right now but could be unseated by the Miami Heat if they can win road games in Boston and Detroit. The Celtics and Pistons are also fighting for playoff positioning, Boston hoping to make a run at the No. 4 spot and Detroit looking to avoid a Cleveland beatdown.
Out West, it's all about deciding the bottom four seeds. The Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks are all fighting to sort out the Nos. 5-7 spots, while the Houston Rockets can clinch the No. 8 spot with a win over Sacramento on Wednesday. After losing three of their last four games, the Utah Jazz will need a Houston loss and to ruin Kobe Bryant's last game in Los Angeles to earn a playoff berth.
With a lot to be decided, we're better off talking scenarios than actual matchups at this point. In that spirit, let's look at the playoff schedule and assess some of the best potential contests.
| First Round | April 16 - May 1 | ESPN/ABC/TNT/NBATV |
Best Potential Series
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Even with Chris Bosh on the shelf, the mix of young vs. old here has the potential to be fun. Five of the Heat's six leading scorers (not including Bosh) are 29 or older. Goran Dragic is the only non-30-something of the bunch, and he'll get there in less than a month.
The Celtics have one player on their entire roster, Jonas Jerebko, who is 29 years old. Five of their seven leading scorers are 25 or younger. Isaiah Thomas and Evan Turner break the age curve a bit at 27, but this is a decidedly young team everywhere.
You'll also be hard pressed to find two more diametrically opposite team strategies. The Celtics play at the NBA's third-fastest pace. The Heat play at the NBA's fifth-slowest. Boston assists on 7 percent more of its baskets than Miami and ranks among the league's most prolific three-point chuckers, while the Heat do most of their work inside.
Making things even more interesting is how eerily close these teams are statistically despite their differing strategies. The Heat score 104.2 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics are at 103.9. Boston gives up 101.0 points per 100. Miami gives up 101.5. The difference in the macro is almost nonexistent.
Over the course of a seven-game series, the winner may be decided by coaching adjustments. The Heat-Celtics matchup will be a treat for anyone who appreciates good coaching, as Brad Stevens and Erik Spoelstra rank among the very best minds in the game. With a combined age of 84, this may be the first of many Stevens-Spoelstra head-to-heads to come.
As far as potential 4-5 matchups go, this one's pretty fun.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Anybody
No one expected the Blazers to be here. I sure as heck didn't. But Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and an underrated supporting cast have proved people wrong every step of the way. Lillard is a no-doubt-about-it franchise face who does his Steph Curry Lite thing on a nightly basis.
That's not a knock on Lillard, either. Curry's doing superhuman things. Lillard is doing many of the same things for Portland that Curry does in Golden State, just at a much more mortal rate. He hasn't made nearly the strides Curry has on the defensive end, but Lillard improved to "better than advertised" status.
The reason for bringing this up is simple. The Blazers are a classic "nothing to lose" team in these playoffs. No one expects them to compete with the Spurs, Thunder or Clippers. Most experts are probably going to pick a four- or five-game steamroll regardless of opponent.
But don't be surprised if Portland's fun, free-wheeling style steals an early game or two against any of these teams. The Blazers run hot and cold, but they can drop 120 on any given night. Lillard's already developed a reputation as a playoff hero, and McCollum offered a preview of his 2015-16 breakout during last year's playoff loss to the Grizzlies.
A Clippers-Blazers matchup has all the makings of a six-game series worth watching. The Clippers are still trying to get their bearings since Blake Griffin's return and aren't exactly the most headstrong group. Is it impossible to imagine a scenario where Portland takes Game 1 in Los Angeles, holds home court in Game 3 and then has everyone screaming upset?
Not at all if you've watched this Clippers core play over the last few seasons.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
OK, fine. We're stretching the bounds of "interesting" here. The Warriors are probably going to sweep a Rockets team that's headed for the playoffs despite their best effort to head to vacation early.
Still, this is a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals. It's mostly remembered as a five-game romp, but that's not the case. Houston, which returns quite a bit of its 2015 core, nearly took the first two games in Golden State. The Warriors won those first two games by a combined five points before taking control.
A healthy, motivated Rockets team can beat these Warriors one or two games. We haven't seen a healthy or motivated Rockets team all season, but they've been borderline respectable in the second half. Their 13-13 record since the All-Star break obscures a very solid 2.8 net rating. This is at least a formidable basketball team when engaged.
But, yeah. Expecting James Harden and Dwight Howard to suddenly turn it all the way on when they've miserably kicked the can down the road is a losing proposition. Smart money is on a Warriors sweep, but there's at least potential for something fun here.
All advanced stats via NBA.com
