Biggest NBA Games in the Final Week of the Season
One week remains in the NBA regular season, and for many teams the stakes are higher now than at any point this season.
Teams like the Rockets, Mavericks, Jazz, Pistons and Bulls are fighting for the last playoff spots in their respective conferences. One game could be the difference between being in the playoffs and going home early.
The Celtics, Trail Blazers and others have the opportunity to improve their seeding and possible playoff matchups this week. In the Eastern Conference, where the middle tier of teams are bunched together so closely, one loss could drop a team from the No. 3 seed to the No. 6 seed.
And then there are two teams—Golden State and San Antonio—that are trying to make history. Their competing quests will collide this weekend.
Let's take a look at some of the biggest games remaining on the schedule. These games will affect home-court advantage, matchups in later rounds and possibly even the record books.
7. Heat at Pistons, Tuesday April 12
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The Pistons, hovering around the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, will play their final home game against Miami next Tuesday.
The Heat beat Detroit 107-89 on Tuesday night in Miami. The Pistons will have to put together a better game next week or risk being bounced from the eighth spot in favor of the Bulls. Chicago is 3-7 in its last 10 games and sits two games back of the No. 8 seed, but a strong finish over the final week could put pressure on Detroit.
The game will be meaningful for Miami as well, which is still in the mix for the third or fourth spot in the conference. The Heat could give themselves a better shot at home-court advantage with a win or drop as low as sixth with a loss.
What to watch: Detroit’s perimeter defense
Detroit’s biggest failure Tuesday night was giving up open looks from deep. Miami was 9-of-14 from three-point range. Reggie Jackson fell asleep on defense a few times and gave Josh Richardson easy shots.
The Heat aren’t a team that will take a lot of threes, though. They are making just 34 percent on the season as a team. If the Pistons are more disciplined closing out on shooters, it will be a much more even game next time.
6. Rockets at Mavericks, Wednesday April 6
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The race for the final two spots in the West is a tight battle between Utah, Dallas and Houston. By next Wednesday, one of those three teams will be left on the outside of the playoff bracket.
The Mavs have the opportunity to either solidify their place in the playoffs or push themselves out of the race. They play the Rockets on Wednesday night and will face the Jazz next Monday. Dallas is 1-2 against Houston this season.
The Rockets can get back to .500 and erase the Mavs’ one-game lead in the standings with a win. If Dallas can get the victory, it'll expand its lead in the standings and make it even harder for Houston to grab one of those final two spots in the West.
What to watch: How the Mavs guard Trevor Ariza
Trevor Ariza has averaged 23.5 points in his last two games against Dallas while shooting 10-of-16 from three-point range. The Mavs will probably put Wes Matthews, their best perimeter defender, on James Harden. However, they may want to consider having him defend against Ariza for a few possessions to keep him from getting as many open looks.
5. Hornets at Celtics, Monday April 11
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Quietly, Charlotte has gotten itself within 1.5 games of third place in the East. The Hornets could land anywhere from No. 6 to No. 3 in the conference.
Their matchup with the Celtics will have the biggest effect on their seeding because Boston is in that same tightly packed group of teams in the middle of the standings. The Hornets could leap Boston and possibly grab the third or fourth seed if they win this game. A loss would mean they will probably play Boston in the first round and cede home-court advantage.
What to watch: Offense from Jeremy Lin and Nicolas Batum
Kemba Walker leads Charlotte in scoring at 21 points per game. He sets the tone for the Hornets’ offense. The Celtics will probably put Avery Bradley on Walker to try to limit his production.
Nicholas Batum is day-to-day with a knee injury, but he may be back for this game. If he isn’t, Jeremy Lin may be called upon to play an increased role. Whether it’s Lin or Batum, one of them will have to step up if Bradley is able to contain Walker.
4. Mavericks at Jazz, Monday April 11
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The Mavs are largely in control of their own playoff destiny because they get to play both teams fighting to keep them out of the field in the final week.
After their game against the Rockets on Wednesday, the Mavs will go on the road to take on the Jazz on Monday. Those two games will probably decide whether Dallas makes the playoffs. Going 1-1 or 2-0 could almost guarantee a spot. Losing both would probably be the end of its playoff hopes.
The Jazz will be trying to get the win in order to move as high as the No. 7 seed. A victory could create some separation between them and the Rockets, who currently sit in ninth place.
What to watch: Can the Jazz create more possessions for their offense?
The Jazz are not a good offensive team. They are the third-worst team in the league in terms of points per game (97.7) and assists per game (18.9). The Mavs’ efficiency on offense could allow them to just outscore Utah.
Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in rebounding, but between Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors they should be able to grab some offensive rebounds to extend possessions. The more they keep the ball out of the Mavs’ hands, the better chance they will have.
3. Celtics at Hawks, Saturday April 9
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The Hawks have recovered from a rough start to 2016 that saw them fall to the bottom of the playoff picture. Now they are battling the Celtics for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Saturday matchup between these two teams will likely decide who falls to No. 4 in the East and be forced to face Cleveland in the conference semifinals. That’s a second-round matchup both teams would like to avoid.
This will be an especially important game for Atlanta because it’s right between games against the top two teams in the conference: Toronto and Cleveland. A loss to Boston could be even uglier if it possibly becomes part of a three-game slide right before the end of the season.
The Celtics have an easier remaining schedule than the Hawks, so a loss could crater any chances for Atlanta to get the better seed. The Celtics, meanwhile, could cruise into the playoffs with momentum.
What to watch: Which point guard can change the game
Isaiah Thomas is having a career year for Boston, and he will match up against two talented point guards for Atlanta in Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder. This game may come down to whose point guard plays best.
The Celtics need Thomas to continue to be aggressive because he is the key to their offensive production. He scored 29 on 6-of-12 shooting the last time these teams played. Another game like that probably means a Boston victory.
If Schroder or Teague can limit Thomas, however, and then take advantage of their size against him on the offensive end, the Hawks will have a great chance to win.
2. Thunder at Trail Blazers, Wednesday April 6
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Oklahoma City clinched the No. 3 seed in the West with its win over Denver on Tuesday night. This matchup has more to do with Portland’s seeding.
The Trail Blazers currently sit at No. 6 in the West and would face the Thunder in the first round. A win in this matchup could help propel them past the Grizzlies into the fifth spot in the conference, especially with Memphis having to face Golden State twice over the final week of the season.
A first-round series with the Clippers would be a more desirable outcome for the Blazers. Portland is 1-2 against L.A. and Oklahoma City, but the Clippers’ wins over Portland have been by an average margin of 6.5 points. The Thunder’s victories were by 16 and 34.
What to watch: Portland’s interior defense
Oklahoma City’s size up front with Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams makes it a tough matchup for Portland. In its 34-point win over the Blazers on March 14, the Thunder outscored them 56-42 in the paint. Ibaka, Kanter and Adams combined for 44 points.
The Blazers will have to try to contain Russell Westbrook and keep him from getting in the lane. When he does, it may be best for them to not lend any help. All that does is leave the Thunder bigs open on the back side of the play. If they let Westbrook get his but keep the big men under control, they will have a better chance.
1. Warriors at Spurs, Sunday April 10
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The Warriors and Spurs, both chasing league records, play twice in the final week of the regular season. Spurs head coach Greg Popovich is expected to rest some of his players for the first matchup in Oakland on Thursday. The second game will likely decide which team gets to keep pursuing history.
San Antonio has to win this game to keep its hope of being the first NBA team to go 41-0 at home alive. The Spurs are one of the few teams to beat the Warriors this season, in part because of a great home-court advantage. Another win would give them the chance to complete an undefeated season at home against the Thunder on Tuesday.
The Warriors have to win this game to break the record for total wins in a season. They have to go 4-0 over their final four games—two against the Spurs and two against the Grizzlies—to surpass the 72-win mark set by Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls in the 1995-1996 season.
Whichever team wins will probably be on their way to a record and will have added confidence should the two teams meet in the conference finals.
What to watch: Can San Antonio limit Curry again?
Stephen Curry had arguably his worst game of the year in San Antonio on March 19 when the Spurs beat the Warriors 87-79. He had 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting and was 1-of-12 from beyond the arc.
Danny Green played great defense on the reigning MVP. Curry won’t shoot that poorly again, but limiting his production even a little makes defending against Golden State at least somewhat easier. Watch for the Warriors to get him easy looks early and try to get him in rhythm, and expect the Spurs to be physical to try to take him out of that rhythm.
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