Which Conference Is Most Likely to Produce 2016's Heisman Trophy Winner?
Conference affiliation hovers over every aspect of college football. From playoff discussions to poll politics to comment section fights, it can't be escaped.
That spreads to award races, too—especially the sport's most famous one, the Heisman Trophy. Where a player is from and whom he played in the regular season have a lot to do with how far his Heisman campaign goes and who votes for him when the ballots are due in December.
Last year, the SEC claimed its fourth Heisman Trophy in seven seasons through Alabama running back Derrick Henry, ending a quick drought similar to the one the league had with national titles. The other finalists came from the Pac-12 and SEC, with the Big 12 not too far behind.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
In the spirit of the offseason's never-ending quest for predictions and projections, let's take a look at which conference is most likely to produce 2016's Heisman Trophy winner. Which league has the best combination of candidates and favorable factors for a run at the stiff-arming statue?
Let's start by taking a look at Vegas' early favorites for the award, courtesy of Odds Shark:
| Deshaun Watson | Clemson | QB | 3-1 | ACC |
| Leonard Fournette | LSU | RB | 4-1 | SEC |
| Christian McCaffrey | Stanford | RB | 4-1 | Pac-12 |
| J.T. Barrett | Ohio State | QB | 10-1 | Big Ten |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | RB | 12-1 | ACC |
| Chad Kelly | Ole Miss | QB | 12-1 | SEC |
| Nick Chubb | Georgia | RB | 14-1 | SEC |
| Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | QB | 14-1 | Big 12 |
| Royce Freeman | Oregon | RB | 14-1 | Pac-12 |
| Calvin Ridley | Alabama | WR | 20-1 | SEC |
| Samaje Perine | Oklahoma | RB | 20-1 | Big 12 |
| Joshua Dobbs | Tennessee | QB | 20-1 | SEC |
| Josh Rosen | UCLA | QB | 20-1 | Pac-12 |
| Brad Kaaya | Miami | QB | 33-1 | ACC |
While that's not an all-encompassing list of players who will have preseason Heisman hype in 2016, it's a good overall scan of the landscape this far in advance.
With those odds in mind, here is the conference tally for early Heisman favorites:
- SEC: 5
- ACC: 3
- Pac-12: 3
- Big 12: 2
- Big Ten: 1
Right from the jump, the SEC takes an early lead. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as college football's most decorated and talked-about league usually dominates preseason polls and lists—to the chagrin of other fans across the country.
But take a closer look at those preseason candidates from the SEC. Most of them have a great deal of unknown surrounding them and their all-important supporting casts heading into a potential Heisman campaign.
Leonard Fournette looked like the runaway Heisman favorite in the first two months of the 2015 season. However, he was handcuffed in a loss against Alabama and stayed behind his usual pace in the next two weekends, both losses to Arkansas and Ole Miss.
The danger with Fournette isn't his talent—he's a highlight-reel machine when he gets going. The issue for his Heisman campaign and, more importantly, LSU's entire national title hopes in 2016 is the passing game. If quarterback Brandon Harris can't take the next step, defenses can continue to load the box against Fournette and limit his effectiveness.
Chad Kelly, the No. 2 SEC candidate in the above odds, hit the ground running in the Ole Miss offense last year. But, in 2016, he won't have his go-to target of Laquon Treadwell, and he'll be playing behind a new-look offensive line.
Nick Chubb is virtually unstoppable at running back when he's both healthy and getting the bulk of Georgia's touches. But his injury woes are a concern, as well as Georgia's passing attack under a new coaching staff. He could have the same issue as Fournette.
Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley is a great dark-horse pick who could be the next Amari Cooper for the Crimson Tide, but he'll have a brand-new quarterback throwing to him. While Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs could rack up dual-threat yards, he'll need to finally get his Vols over the hump and into title contention for him to get serious Heisman love.
On top of all that, a lot of the Heisman candidates from the SEC also have to go through the eliminator-like grind of playing each other and some of the toughest defenses in the entire country in conference play.
Those problems don't exist for the conference that appears to be the most likely to produce the Heisman Trophy winner in 2016—the ACC.
And that pick is not just because the conference has the early preseason favorite of Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. It has a lot to do with Florida State running back Dalvin Cook, Watson's and Cook's respective supporting casts and their overall chances of putting up huge numbers this fall.
Watson was the top quarterback in the country last season, leading his team to the ACC championship and the national title game. This year, he'll have his top running back, seven of his top eight receivers, three returning starters on the offensive line and 2015 top wideout Mike Williams all at his disposal again.
"With just about every key piece of the offense returning—headlined by quarterback Deshaun Waston—it will bury most opponents in points without issue," Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote earlier this month. "I have no idea what you do to stop this offense. Godspeed, everyone."
Clemson arguably has the easiest schedule of any Power Five team, too, with only five bowl teams from 2015 on this year's slate. Florida State is the only team it will face on the road that won more than seven games last season. That's a recipe for monster numbers.
Cook has a tougher schedule ahead of him with nonconference games against both Ole Miss and Florida, as well as conference trips to Miami and Louisville.
However, Cook was one of the best running backs in the entire country last season against quality competition. In seven games against teams with winning records, he averaged 7.45 yards per carry and scored 13 of his 19 touchdowns. He thrives when the spotlight is on him.
Even better, Cook's supporting cast is back for 2016—every single part of it. Florida State could field all 11 offensive starters from the 2015 season this fall, according to Phil Steele. The inexperienced line he ran behind last year is now older and fully intact.
In addition to Watson and Cook, the ACC has a good number of potential dark-horse candidates, including Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya and his 33-1 odds.
Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson was one of the hottest players in the country late last season and plays on a team that returns almost all of its starters. North Carolina running back Elijah Hood was a truly underrated big-play back for a team that almost crashed the College Football Playoff. Hood's teammate, Mitch Trubisky, should put up huge numbers at quarterback this fall.
All of these potential ACC candidates also have a built-in Heisman advantage over anyone from the other conference that has three players on the early odds board—the Pac-12.
Geography helps the ACC, SEC and even the Big Ten and Big 12 in these races and hurts anyone who isn't a runaway candidate from the Pac-12, as Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News wrote last year after Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey finished second in Heisman voting:
"Four of the six voting regions are partly or wholly housed in the Eastern Time Zone.
If you are Dennis Dixon (2007) or Toby Gerhart (2009) or Andrew Luck (2010) or LaMichael James (2010) or Christian McCaffrey (2014), it’s a steep challenge.
That was especially the case for McCaffrey, who wasn’t a starter in ’14 and didn’t appear on the Heisman radar until mid-season and played seven games at night, including four in October.
Of the 3,496 all-purpose yards McCaffrey gained to break Barry Sanders’ record, 55 percent came in night games — games that started at 10 p.m. or later in the Eastern Time Zone, which, as noted above, contained all or parts of four voting regions.
"
Now, McCaffrey won't sneak up on any Heisman voter this year after what he did in 2015. However, the fact that he broke an all-time FBS single-season record and still didn't get the Heisman nod doesn't bode well for his chances this year.
McCaffrey and Oregon running back Royce Freeman—who had some award-worthy numbers in his own right last year—will have to do more to get serious Heisman attention in a league that doesn't have clear-cut preseason national title favorites like its Power Five brethren.
The last two Heisman winners from the conference, Marcus Mariota and Reggie Bush (whose award was later vacated), won because they were runaway candidates on national title contenders. Each grabbed more than 90 percent of the points possible.
Does the Pac-12 have a player like that in 2016, a year where plenty of top offensive names from last season will be back?
The Big 12 will have multiple players with jaw-dropping stats to offer this year's Heisman race thanks to the prolific offenses at Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State and even some of the other members.
The Big Ten has J.T. Barrett, who will be playing alongside the fewest returning starters in the FBS but has already proved to be a serious Heisman contender when healthy and receiving the first-team snaps at Ohio State. Michigan's Jabrill Peppers also provides serious award buzz as a three-way star.
The SEC and the Pac-12 will both boast multiple running backs in the early race and a few passing-game stars.
And the Heisman race always produces out-of-nowhere candidates from all over the country—ones we couldn't have expected back in the spring.
But, right now, the conference with the best chances at producing the Heisman Trophy winner is the one with two strong candidates who have past performance, supporting casts, voter geography and preseason spotlight in their favor.
The ACC is quickly rising in power. Don't be surprised if one of its own claims the famous stiff-arming trophy this December.
All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Justin Ferguson is a National College Football Analyst at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
