The Case for and Against Florida Winning the SEC East in 2016
Florida came out of nowhere in 2015 to earn the SEC East title in head coach Jim McElwain's first year at the helm.
It wasn't without problems, though.
Starting quarterback Will Grier led the Gators out to a 6-0 start before his year-long suspension that ultimately led to his decision to transfer. The offensive line showed signs of life early, before injuries and inexperience sent the unit into a tailspin down the stretch, in which it gave up 24 sacks over its final six games. Then-freshman wide receiver Antonio Callaway burst onto the scene, but quarterback issues once Treon Harris took over for Grier rendered the passing game to an afterthought in November.
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A strong case can be made for the Gators, who are loaded with talent, to repeat as SEC East champions in the wide-open division. But the issues that popped up in late October and November are very real.
So let's make both cases, shall we?
The Case For Florida
Defense wins championships, of course.
Florida lost some monsters off of last year's squad, including lineman Jonathan Bullard, linebacker Antonio Morrison, cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III and safety Keanu Neal.
But this is Florida, and what SEC team other than Alabama has earned more defensive benefit of the doubt than the Gators? Nobody.
They don't rebuild, they reload. They'll be reloading with players who have played significant roles in the past, despite being in the shadow of those stars.
Versatile 300-pound defensive lineman Caleb Brantley has already set the goal of being the best defensive lineman in the nation.
"I love double teams," said Brantley according to Florida's official site. "I feel like practice is a good way to get better for in-game situations. You're going to play guys like LSU and Georgia and see the double team a lot."
Jarrad Davis has established himself as a key contributor at linebacker, after notching 98 tackles and 11 for loss a year ago. Marcus Maye is a monster at safety. Junior cornerback Jalen Tabor had four picks a year ago, returned two for touchdowns and is as respected in coaching circles and scouting circles as Hargreaves was.
The defense paved the way to Atlanta last fall, and the offense has to be just a little bit better than last year, right?
Well, of course.
Harris is suspended and could be moving to wide receiver, opening the door for Oregon State/Alabama transfer Luke Del Rio and Purdue graduate transfer Austin Appleby to win the job this spring. So far, Del Rio—who sat out all of the 2015 season after transferring from Oregon State—has jumped out to an early lead in the pro-style Gator offense.
"It's very similar to the one at Alabama when I was there," Del Rio said on Wednesday. "There's some comfort there."
With Callaway suspended, Del Rio has had the chance to get comfortable with some of the other receivers, which will allow the offense to be much more dynamic than it has been in years past. Senior Ahmad Fulwood has stepped up according to McElwain, newcomers Freddie Swain and Tyrie Cleveland have the chance to shine, and Callaway is a known commodity if and when he's allowed to return.
Running back? That shouldn't be an issue either, right?
After all, highly touted sophomores Jordan Cronkrite and Jordan Scarlett are back, along with Derrick Henry's clone Mark Thompson, who stands at 6'2", 242 pounds.
"I like the way he carries himself. I like the way he works out," Davis said of the bruiser from junior college, according to Jesse Simonton of the Miami Herald. "I feel like he’s going to be special. I’m really excited to see what he’s going to do. I’m ready to put the pads on so I can see what it’s going to be like me vs. him."
McElwain options behind an offensive line that, while awful last year at times, was going through growing pains with several youngsters, including former blue-chip recruit Martez Ivey.
Plus, it's not like the SEC East is full of land mines.
Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri all are going through coaching transitions; Kentucky and Vanderbilt can be dangerous but are undermanned; and Florida has had Tennessee's number for a decade, even though the Volunteers have the deepest and most talented roster in the division.
It's all set up for the Gators to make a run again, unless it's not.
The Case Against Florida
You can't seriously have all of your eggs in the baskets of castoff quarterbacks from Oregon State and Purdue, can you?
Del Rio and Appleby were in search of greener pastures after not cutting it at schools that, while in Power Five conferences, are hardly considered powerhouses that routinely produce top-tier quarterback talent.
The combination of legitimate quarterback concerns, the inexperience of highly touted true freshman early enrollee Feleipe Franks and remarkable absence of proven playmakers other than Callaway—who is suspended—will plague the Gator offense again in 2016.
Up front, the offensive line is still figuring itself out, and the trio of running backs Florida has vying for the top spot on the depth chart won't be able to match the production and reliability of former Gator Kelvin Taylor—who never fumbled during his three-year career.
That leaves a razor-thin margin for error for a Florida defense that, while talented, can't hold a candle to the that gave up 310.2 yards per game, 18.3 points per game and 4.65 yards per play a year ago.
Sure, Tabor was great as Hargreaves' running mate. But he benefited from all of the attention that opposing offenses scared of VHIII gave him.
Plus, it's Tennessee's time.
The 11-game winning streak over the Vols has to come to an end at some point, and this is the year it will happen. The Vols return a ton of talent, draw Florida in Knoxville early in the season when the Gators still are figuring out their identity and head coach Butch Jones should know not to coach scared like he did in last year's matchup between the two East rivals.
That, coupled with tough games vs. LSU and in Jacksonville vs. a talented Georgia team, will be enough to prevent a return trip to Atlanta.
The Verdict
Florida will be in the mix.
It isn't a shoo-in to win the division, nor is a 6-6 season (or worse) inevitable after losing three straight to end the year and navigating through massive roster turnover.
The Tennessee game will be a swing game for the Gators, and will be huge for the confidence of the coaching staff and the players. Putting the Vols into a one-game hole in September is paramount and can springboard the Gators to another title run.
LSU has its doubters (including yours truly), but is incredibly talented. That game being at home will help. As does the bye week prior to the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party—a game Florida has won 20 of the last 26 years.
Because of Tennessee's depth and schedule, Florida probably won't be picked to win the division when the assembled members of the media meet in Hoover, Alabama, in June at SEC media days. It might not even be picked second, since Georgia has the talent to make a run as well.
But it will get some love, and certainly could repeat as SEC East champs if McElwain answers some (not all) of his pressing questions and the Gators catch a few breaks.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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