Mohamed Elneny May Help Arsenal Eat Jam, but Gunners Still Miss Santi Cazorla

Arsenal fans have perhaps become too used to the promise of jam tomorrow to get overly excited by the improved performance against Barcelona or by the comprehensive victory over Everton on Saturday. Each season, the pattern repeats: the drift to the point at which hope is lost, followed by the recovery to fall only narrowly short, with enough green shoots showing to create belief that next season may be the one.

So a certain cynicism is understandable. Habitual failure to perform when it really matters, though, does not alter the fact that Mohamed Elneny has added much-needed energy and aggression to the midfield. At almost any other club, that would be hailed as an encouraging sign for the future. Just because it feels at Arsenal like another part of their ongoing emotional confidence trick doesn’t make it any less true.

The Arsenal story for a decade has been one of hard luck and key injuries, a tale of perpetual success ruined only by what-ifs and but-if-onlys. Keeping your players free from injury and working out ways to cope when they do succumb are part of the game—and nobody could realistically claim that Arsene Wenger’s failure to strengthen at the back of midfield had not been highlighted.

So it’s not in any way to suggest Arsenal deserve sympathy for their plight to point out that no absence has hurt them as much this season as that of Santi Cazorla, one of three players who suffered injuries in the 1-1 draw at Norwich in November. Cazorla struggled on to the end of a game in which both Alexis Sanchez and Laurent Koscielny had to be taken off, but his recovery has taken far longer than either of the others.

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

It’s not just that Cazorla did such a fine job as a playmaker from deep last season, contributing seven goals and 11 assists. It’s that his presence, forever buzzing around the back of midfield, seemed to get the best out of Francis Coquelin.

From the 2-0 win away to Manchester City to the end of last season, they were excellent together, a pairing that, at last, allowed Arsenal to dominate games from the centre as well as giving them the option of dropping deep with two holders to shield the back four.

In the 30 league games Cazorla and Coquelin have started together, Arsenal have taken 64 points. Discounting the game at West Bromwich Albion when Coquelin was forced off after 13 minutes, Arsenal have taken 23 points this season from the 11 games they started with Coquelin and Cazorla together (2.09 points per game). In the other 19, they have taken 32 (1.68 points per game).

The issue is in part positional. Aaron Ramsey has a preference for charging forward; he is a box-to-box player as opposed to a deep-lying holder. When he plays alongside Coquelin, the Frenchman can be left isolated. Play Mathieu Flamini alongside him, though, and the result is too negative; there isn’t sufficient creativity from the central positions. Mikel Arteta, sadly, looks too old for the Premier League.

That’s why the capture of Elneny was so vital. His goal against Barcelona caught the eye, of course, but it was his performance against Everton that was probably more significant in the longer term.

It’s true that Everton this season, particularly at home, have been prone to bouts of strange insipidness, but still, there was something impressive about the way Arsenal harried them to distraction on Saturday. The Gunners pressed hard and high to the point that the life had been squeezed out of Roberto Martinez’s side before half-time.

Elneny and Coquelin were central to that. Coquelin, perhaps, was the more obviously destructive of the two, making four tackles and a remarkable 12 interceptions (stats from WhoScored.com), but pressing doesn’t happen in isolation. One player charging about making tackles willy-nilly isn’t hugely helpful—as Flamini’s performances increasingly show.

What allowed the thought that Arsenal may be building something worthwhile to kindle was the way the midfield and defence worked as a united front, denying Everton space.

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The boss: "@ElNennyM has given us a very good balance in the way we want to play football." #EFCvAFC

— Arsenal FC (@Arsenal) March 19, 2016"

The consistency of Elneny’s passing is another boon. He completed 89.8 percent of his passes on Saturday; Coquelin completed 87 percent of his. It’s a central-midfield pairing that doesn’t give the ball away cheaply. The only negative in that regard is that neither made a key pass, and that may be where Cazorla is still missed.

Mesut Ozil has been responsible for 45 percent of all Arsenal assists this season That is remarkable, and he is, of course, due great credit for having set up 18 goals. But it is also a concern. What if Ozil has an off day? What if the opposition sits two men on him?

Cazorla’s 11 assists of last season have been missed. Alexis, for instance, has scored only once in the league and Theo Walcott twice since Cazorla’s injury. Those rapid through balls for speedy wide players to run on to have dried up in Cazorla’s absence.

Arsenal this season are scoring just 1.6 goals per game. They haven’t finished a season with a lower rate since 1998-99. For all the—not unreasonable—talk about defensive frailties and deficiencies of character, Arsenal have also been undone this season by a lack of goals. Given Elneny managed only five in 91 games for Basel, he’s not going to change that dramatically. Arsenal still need Cazorla back.

But what bringing in Elneny has done is to give Arsenal greater strength in depth in the centre. They can now play with two more natural holding players if they want to. They have an option to play alongside Cazorla when he is fit if Coquelin is injured or out of form. For the first time in ages, Arsenal look as though they’re part-way to having genuine cover in that vital area.

Not for the first time with Arsenal, though, the question is why did it take so long? And, given how often glimpses of hope are offered at this stage of the season, does it really matter? There may be more fruit and sugar in the pan, but when will anybody actually get to eat the jam?