NCAA Tournament 2016: Keys to Each First Four Game

The first round of the NCAA tournament begins on Thursday, but the four games that lead up to it have appeal of their own. 

The First Four tips off on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio, and the games offer plenty of intrigue. Established names like Michigan and Wichita State will try to justify their selections after sneaking in as bubble teams.

There are also surprise teams from small conferences—like Holy Cross and Fairleigh Dickinson—that earned a spot by staging major upsets in their respective conference tournaments.

These play-in games feature major-conference teams that didn’t garner national attention because they weren’t near the top of the standings and small schools that most casual fans haven’t watched all year.

To prepare for these opening games of the tournament, take a look at these keys to victory for each matchup.

South: No. 11 Vanderbilt (19-13) vs. No. 11 Wichita State (24-8)

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The selection committee put Vanderbilt into the tournament despite the Commodores’ upset loss to Tennessee in their opening game of the SEC tournament. It’s Vanderbilt’s first time in the Big Dance since 2012.

Wichita State also snuck in after falling to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals. The Shockers and Commodores were both sitting on the bubble near the end of the season, and both will get the chance to play their way into the field of 64 on Tuesday.

The key for both teams will be dictating the pace and style of play of the game.

Defend the Perimeter

The Shockers give up fewer points per game (59.3) than any team in college basketball. That number isn’t solely a product of playing in the MVC, either. They lead the nation in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom—even when adjusted for their opponents.

They will need to continue playing great defense against Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 21st in the country in three-point percentage (.388) and have great individual three-point shooters in Matthew Fisher-Davis and Wade Baldwin IV.

Wichita State needs to close out on Vanderbilt’s shooters to make the Commodores work for their shots. Forcing the Commodores to use more of the clock to find a good look will slow the tempo, which is exactly what the Shockers want.

Exploit the Talent Gap

The Commodores’ season has been disappointing because of the amount of talent on the roster. Baldwin and center Damian Jones are both possible first-round draft picks.

With players like that, going 11-7 in a weak year for the SEC is underperforming.

Against Wichita State, Vanderbilt needs to fully utilize its talent advantage. If the Commodores use their speed to get out in transition and get easy baskets, it will open shooters up at the three-point line. The Shockers are a veteran, disciplined team, but they haven’t faced many teams with the talent Vanderbilt has. That will play in the Commodores’ favor.

East: No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (20-13) vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (18-14)

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Florida Gulf Coast is in the NCAA tournament for the first time since its miracle run as “Dunk City” in 2013. The Eagles held off an upset bid from underdog Stetson in the Atlantic Sun title game to clinch an automatic bid.

The Eagles will face Fairleigh Dickinson, which is in the tournament for the first time since 2005. FDU upset Wagner, the top seed in the Northeast Conference tournament, for the league’s automatic bid. The winner of this game will play the East region’s No. 1 seed, North Carolina, in the first round.

Be a Model of Efficiency

FDU led the NEC in field-goal percentage (.482), three-point percentage (.390) and free-throw percentage (.757) during conference play.

The Knights don’t settle for many bad shots. They get to the rim, and they shoot a high percentage at the line and from outside.

That is a formula to succeed in the tournament. The temptation in a high-pressure environment is to try to do too much. Players take more contested shots or try to improvise more. The Knights need to do what got them to this game: run their style of offense and nothing more.

Play Big and Tall

There is a major mismatch FGCU should exploit as much as possible in this game. The Knights have one player over 6’7” on their roster. The Eagles have five.

FGCU’s height poses a huge problem for FDU. The Eagles are a top-20 rebounding team in the nation, grabbing 40.2 boards a game. Conversely, the Knights are 299th in rebounding at 33.6 per game.

The Eagles shouldn’t worry about getting back in transition. They should fight for every offensive rebound they can and get extra possessions. On defense, they can make FDU nervous about entering the paint by swatting away shots.

FDU may get timid at that point and start to settle for long-range jumpers. If that happens, FGCU’s spot in the first round is sealed.

East: No. 11 Michigan (22-12) vs. No. 11 Tulsa (20-11)

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Michigan lost to Purdue in a 76-59 blowout in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. The Wolverines will now try to play themselves into the first round against Tulsa.

Tulsa comes into the matchup after a big loss of its own, falling to Memphis 89-67 in the American Athletic Conference tournament, and the Golden Hurricane barely made it into the field. Selection committee chairman Joe Castiglione said Tulsa was the last team to get an at-large bid, according to ESPN.com’s Andy Katz.

Use Your Experience

Tulsa’s greatest advantage in this matchup is experience. Seven of the eight players who play the most minutes for the Golden Hurricane are seniors, including four starters. Only one underclassman plays at least 10 minutes a game.

An experienced team like that knows how to handle pressure. The Golden Hurricane should be able to demonstrate some poise by taking good shots and not turning the ball over.

Mistake-free basketball is the Golden Hurricane’s best chance to beat the Wolverines.

Play to Your Potential

The Wolverines have showed that they can handle quality opponents. They beat Indiana, Maryland, Purdue and Texas this season, all of which are in the top 30 in RPI.

However, Michigan is 5-7 in its last 12 games, including five losses to AP Top 25 teams. The Wolverines were 17-5 before hitting that skid.

Now they have a chance to regain their form. They are playing a non-ranked team that no one believes should even be in the tournament. ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi called Tulsa’s selection “indefensible by every known standard.”

Michigan has played and beaten better teams. It needs to play the way it’s capable of playing instead of what it has showed over the last six weeks.

West: No. 16 Holy Cross (14-19) vs. No. 16 Southern (22-12)

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Holy Cross has already put together one of the most exciting postseasons of the year. The Crusaders were the No. 9 seed in the Patriot League tournament, but they won four straight, including wins over top seeds Bucknell and Lehigh, to win the conference championship.

They will face Southern, the Southwestern Athletic Conference champion, for the right to play No. 1 seed Oregon in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Stay Aggressive

Holy Cross played like it had nothing to lose throughout the Patriot League tournament. The Crusaders ignored the fact that they had a losing record. Bucknell and Lehigh didn’t intimidate them.

When Holy Cross didn’t concede easily, those teams didn’t play with confidence.

"We were out of sorts," Lehigh coach Brett Reed told reporters, per ESPN.com, after his team lost to the Crusaders. "I don't think we were as assertive or as aggressive as we needed to be.”

The Crusaders need to maintain that attitude against Southern. There are no stakes for them, and they don’t need to be afraid of playing in the tournament. They need to shoot the ball and attack the rim with confidence.

Aim for 70

The Jaguars are not a high-scoring team, as they average 72.9 points per game. However, if they hit their season average, that almost guarantees them a win against an offensively challenged Holy Cross.

The Crusaders score just 65.3 points a game. That’s one of the main reasons they came into the Patriot League tournament with a losing record. They haven’t won a game since Dec. 21 when allowing their opponent to score 70 in regulation.

Southern has a great scoring threat in Adrian Rodgers, who averages 16.6 points per game. The Jaguars need to give him the ball and let him get to the basket. They don’t have to worry about stopping the Crusaders; they only need to make it hard for them to keep up.