
Will Offseason Gutting Dash Denver Broncos' Chances of Super Bowl Repeat?
Good times are fleeting in the National Football League.
It was just over a month ago that the Denver Broncos capped off Peyton Manning's swansong season with a victory in Super Bowl 50. That was past, though.
The present looks a lot more uncertain in the Mile High City, as a week about as rough as offseason weeks get has suddenly left the Broncos with holes all over the roster and their repeat hopes in serious doubt right out of the gate.
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The week kicked off, of course, with Manning's retirement on Monday. There were tears and accolades galore. A standing ovation, even:
Little did general manager John Elway know that the crying had only begun.
Before free agency was even officially underway, there were rumblings that defensive end Malik Jackson was headed out the door. ESPN's Adam Schefter confirmed both that and the fact the 26-year-old would have to stop by the bank first:
However, to this point things were still OK. Or at least as OK as anyone could reasonably expect them to be. It was hardly a stunner that Manning hung them up after an 18th season in which he showed serious and significant signs of decline.
And while it was unfortunate to see Jackson depart for Jacksonville, it was not all that surprising. The Jaguars entered free agency with over $70 million in their war chest. They were in a position to offer Jackson the sort of windfall the Broncos just couldn't match. They did. Jackson left.
Such is life in the modern NFL.
It was a similar situation when, as Schefter tweeted, inside linebacker Danny Trevathan joined the Chicago Bears on Wednesday night:
Don't get me wrong: Trevathan's loss stings. As Pro Football Focus passed along, the 25-year-old was very effective for the champs on a per-snap basis in 2015:
However, Trevathan also spent a great deal of the season as a two-down player who left the field in some sub-packages. With the Broncos in a bit of a cap crunch thanks to the big raise Von Miller is due, it was believed that if another team offered Trevathan full-time starter money, out the door he'd go.
The Bears did. He left. Such is life in the modern NFL.
It was the deal that came between that punched the Broncos right in the solar plexus:
The departure of quarterback Brock Osweiler to the Houston Texans on a four-year, $72 million deal was easily the biggest surprise of free agency's first day. It wasn't just the size of the deal; it was that the player who just about everyone had tabbed as the starter for the defending champs in 2016 wanted to leave.
Still, as ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli quoted, that was the case:
"I'm very thankful, I'm very appreciative for everything that the Denver Broncos organization has done for me. However, in saying that, at this point in time in my career, I feel like the Houston Texans give me the best opportunity to be successful.
From the top down, starting with the McNair family and then moving on down to the coaching staff, and with [offensive coordinator George] Godsey and coach [Bill] O'Brien and the offensive attack that they have here, I feel like their offense fits my skill set very well, and I'm very excited to play in that offense.
"
Per Ganguli, a suddenly scrambling Elway didn't waste time going into spin mode. "We've stayed true to our philosophy of building a team with players who want to be Denver Broncos and want to be here," Elway said. "That's been a successful approach for us."
He also started kicking over rocks under center with all due haste. In fact, per the NFL Network's Michael Silver, Elway has, in the space of a week, gone from Plan A (Manning) to Plan B (Osweiler) to Plan C (a trade for Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers) with Plan D (Ryan Fitzpatrick) on deck:
That's some serious shuffling.
But Jackson, with one foot out the door, wondered aloud, per Hugh Johnson of the Denver Post, whether the whole thing was avoidable—whether the gang could have all come back for one more run:
"I think the Broncos are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. They could have gotten me done, they could have got Danny done, they could have got Brock done for (next) to nothing and now we've all branched out…I don't know what they're doing. I know they let go a lot of key players but I know that defense is still going to be stout and I can't wait to see them in the season when they come here.
"
The thing is, they really couldn't.
The elephant in the room, the real cause of Jackson's and Trevathan's departures, is the Super Bowl MVP. Miller is set to land a megadeal that could make him the NFL's highest paid defender. A deal ESPN's Jeff Legwold thinks could break records:
The money just wasn't there. And Osweiler? While the Broncos had certainly allocated resources to re-signing him, there's only so much you can do when a player wants to explore other opportunities. Lucrative opportunities.
In fact, the only misstep that can truly be laid at Elway's feet is not extending a higher tender to restricted free agent C.J. Anderson. Now, if the Broncos choose not to match the four-year offer sheet the Miami Dolphins have on the table, per Schefter, they'll receive no compensation for losing the 25-year-old tailback.
That was an oopsie.
Are the Broncos in trouble? You bet. If losing Trevathan stung and bidding adieu to Jackson hurt, Osweiler's defection was a hammerblow, even if they add Kaepernick (who was awful in San Fran in 2015) or Fitzpatrick (a 33-year-old journeyman).
But guess what? The Broncos were already more or less in that boat before the week even started. Most pundits figured Trevathan and Jackson were leaving. And while Osweiler had moments last year in seven starts, he's hardly a slam dunk at quarterback—a point ESPN's Bill Barnwell made in under 140 characters:
Under Elway's stewardship (either as a player or an executive), the Broncos have now played in 39 (approximately) Super Bowls. The team has won three. Now, Elway faces perhaps his stiffest test ever: consecutive Super Bowl wins with different quarterbacks, which has never happened before.
Will it happen? Probably not. But not through any fault of the Broncos. There's a reason why it's been over a decade since we saw a repeat champion. Title teams are nearly impossible to keep together. Too many paydays and not enough green to pay with.
Such is life in the modern NFL.
Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.

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