SEC Tournament 2016: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
The Southeastern Conference tournament, which starts Wednesday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, may have more impact on NCAA tournament selections than any other conference tournament.
Six of the 13 teams competing in the SEC tournament are on the bubble for an at-large NCAA tournament bid. Each of those six needs to win a game or two in the conference tournament to improve its at-large chances and would love to win the tournament to remove any doubt. It will create a wild scramble in an event that features no team currently ranked among the Top 15 in the Associated Press poll and no overwhelming favorite.
The only team that overwhelmingly struggled during SEC play was Missouri, but the Tigers are not in the conference tournament after imposing a postseason ban on themselves for NCAA violations.
To help you sort through the mounds of possibilities, we provide a primer that lists the opponent and time for each team's opening game and offers a prediction and analysis of how each team will fare.
Teams are presented in inverse order of their seedings, with the top seed listed last.
Game times are in Central Time.
No. 13 Auburn Tigers
1 of 13
First Matchup: No. 12 Tennessee (Wednesday, 7 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose their opening game
Auburn (11-19, 5-13) was not much of a team before the suspension of leading scorer Kareem Canty, who subsequently left school in mid-February. Now the Tigers are even less of a threat. They have lost three straight and 11 of their last 13, and there is little reason to expect them to do any damage in the conference tournament.
The Tigers are 2-7 without Canty, who averaged 18.3 points and 5.3 assists, and their most significant win of the season was a 75-70 victory over Kentucky, a game in which Canty scored 26 points. That win came out of the blue, as Auburn had lost three straight, including a 15-point defeat at the hands of last-place Missouri. The other Auburn highlight was a Feb. 24 victory over Georgia, and that result was even more surprising because the Tigers played that game without Canty and Tyler Harris, who became the Tigers' leading scorer in Canty's absence.
Because the Nos. 12 and 13 seeds have to play an extra game, Auburn would have to win five games in five days to capture the SEC tournament title and an NCAA tournament berth. It's not going to happen. In fact, the Tigers are likely to be eliminated two days before four SEC teams play their first games.
Auburn split its two games with Tennessee this season, winning at home with Canty in the lineup and losing by 26 points on the road without Canty. Auburn made 12 of 26 three-point shots in the win, and if it matches that output on Wednesday, it has a chance to beat Tennessee. The Tigers are more likely to replicate the 5-of-26 three-point shooting it had in the loss to Tennessee.
The absence of Tennessee's top scorer, Kevin Punter, gives Auburn a slight chance, but even if Auburn manages to eke out a win in its opener, it will lose its next game against Vanderbilt.
No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers
2 of 13
First Matchup: No. 13 Auburn (Wednesday, 7 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose their second game
Tennessee (13-18, 6-12) is in the same situation as its opening-round opponent, Auburn: The Volunteers were not good when they had leading scorer Kevin Punter, and now they are even worse without him. Punter, who averaged 22.2 points, missed the final five games and is done for the season because of foot stress fractures that required surgery, according to Steve Megargee of the Associated Press.
Tennessee posted some good wins this season, including victories over Kentucky, Florida and South Carolina, but all three came with Punter on the court, and he scored 27, 26 and 36 points, respectively, in those victories.
The Volunteers pulled off an upset of LSU in their first game without Punter, but they have lost the four games since then, all by double-digit margins.
Tennessee split its two regular-season games with Auburn, including a 26-point Vols victory at home on Feb. 9. Punter played in that game but scored a season-low four points, so he was present in name only. It seems the Tennessee team without Punter should be able to handle an Auburn team without Kareem Canty.
Tennessee will have little rest from that Wednesday evening game before facing Vanderbilt Thursday afternoon. A rested Tennessee team would have trouble with Vanderbilt, which won both regular-season matchups by double digits, and a fatigued Tennessee squad without Punter has almost no chance.
No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs
3 of 13
First Matchup: No. 6 Georgia (Thursday, 8:30 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose their opening game
Mississippi State (14-16, 7-11) has improved considerably over the final three weeks, winning four of its final six games, including victories over South Carolina, Alabama and Vanderbilt. One of the losses in that span was a road loss to first-place Texas A&M, which needed two free throws from Danuel House with 2.1 seconds left to take a two-point victory.
A Bulldogs team that lost its first five conference games and nine of its first 11 is now capable of competing with the best teams in the SEC under first-year coach Ben Howland. The Bulldogs could be the surprise team of the conference tournament. However, they could also lose their opening game.
Mississippi State lost at home rather decisively in its only game against Georgia this season, but Gavin Ware and Craig Sword, Mississippi State's top two scorers, were in foul trouble, which limited their playing time and production in that game. Mississippi State's surge began immediately after that Feb. 13 loss.
Although Georgia is also playing well at the moment, Mississippi State's improved play could turn the tables. The game is a virtual tossup, with Georgia having a slight edge based on its previous win over Mississippi State.
If Mississippi State gets past Georgia, it has a chance to spring another upset in the quarterfinals, where it would face South Carolina. Mississippi State split its two games against the Gamecocks this season, and the Bulldogs' 10-point victory occurred just two weeks ago.
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No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide
4 of 13
First Matchup: No. 7 Mississippi (Thursday, 6 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose their opening game
Alabama (17-13, 8-10) needs a win or two in the SEC tournament to have a shot at an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament, and it may have to win the the conference tournament to get in. Neither Jerry Palm of CBS Sports nor Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com has the Crimson Tide in his projected NCAA tournament field at the moment, and neither even has Alabama among his top four teams on the outside looking in.
That provides Alabama with plenty of motivation, but it also adds pressure, and it remains to be seen how the Crimson Tide will react.
Alabama's postseason status took a hit over the final two weeks of the season, when it lost four of its final five games. The only win in that stretch came at home against Auburn. The good work coach Avery Johnson and the Tide had done by winning five in a row, including wins over LSU and Texas A&M, was all but nullified.
Guard Retin Obasohan continued to put up big numbers, but it didn't help. Despite Obasohan's efforts and Alabama's solid defense, the Tide simply do not score enough points. They rank 308th in the country in scoring and 255th in field-goal percentage (42.4), according to ESPN.com.
The Tide's downward trend coming into the tournament coupled with their loss to Mississippi in their only regular-season meeting suggest Alabama will lose its opening game and miss the NCAA tournament.
No. 9 Arkansas Razorbacks
5 of 13
First Matchup: No. 8 Florida (Thursday, noon)
Prediction: Lose in quarterfinals
Arkansas (16-15, 9-9) probably needs to win the SEC tournament to get into the NCAA tournament, and it can ruin Florida's at-large hopes by taking out the Gators in its opening game.
Florida has had the Razorbacks' number, beating Arkansas in nine of their past 10 meetings, including a Gators victory in Gainesville, Florida, in their only matchup this season. However, Arkansas has been playing well lately. A Feb. 17 loss to Auburn at home may have been the Razorbacks' worst loss of the season and probably spelled an end to their hopes of an NCAA at-large berth. But the Razorbacks have won four of five games since then, including a 20-point win over LSU and a road victory against Alabama.
The 15-point home loss to South Carolina in the regular-season finale emphatically ended a season-best four-game winning streak and slowed Arkansas' momentum coming into the conference tournament.
Moses Kingsley, Dusty Hannahs and Anthlon Bell, the three players who do most of the scoring for Arkansas, have all been productive lately, and Bell and Hannahs are excellent three-point shooters.
The Razorbacks give up a lot of points, which is why they tend to be streaky. They can be impressive when they are piling up points and getting steals with their pressure defense, but if they are not forcing turnovers, they have limited ability to slow down opponents that get on a roll.
The game against Florida figures to be close, with Arkansas having a slight edge. But even if the Razorbacks force enough Gators mistakes to pull out that game, they are unlikely to beat Texas A&M in the next round. Arkansas split its two games against Texas A&M this season, but the Aggies' 23-point victory in College Station was more representative of the relative abilities of these teams.
No. 8 Florida Gators
6 of 13
First Matchup: No. 9 Arkansas (Thursday, noon)
Prediction: Lose their opening game
Florida (18-13, 9-9) desperately needs a couple of wins in the SEC tournament to have a shot at an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament. With its current resume, the Gators probably would not make it to the Big Dance. Neither Palm nor Lunardi has Florida in his projected 68-team field at the moment, but both have the Gators among those who are on the fringe. It suggests that wins over Arkansas in Florida's opener and No. 1-seeded Texas A&M in its second game could be enough.
Beating Arkansas might not be sufficient by itself, and there are serious questions whether the Gators will win their opener given their recent play.
When Florida won at Georgia on Feb. 17, the Gators were 17-9 overall, including an impressive blowout victory over West Virginia, and looked like an NCAA tournament team. Florida nearly pulled off a big road win against South Carolina in its next game, but it lost in overtime to begin the slide. The Gators have lost four of five games since the victory over Georgia—its only victory coming against last-place Missouri. Florida has been competitive in virtually all those games but could not get the key baskets.
Dorian Finney-Smith, the Gators' best player, has been productive throughout the season, but the Gators do not have enough offensive firepower to win many high-scoring games. They rank 255th in the nation in field-goal percentage (42.4), according to ESPN.com.
Florida won the only regular-season meeting against Arkansas, but that four-point victory came on the Gators' home court when Florida was playing better basketball. Despite the motivation of knowing an NCAA tournament berth is still within reach, the Gators are unlikely to get more than one win in the conference tournament, and they will be hard-pressed to even get that.
No. 7 Mississippi Rebels
7 of 13
First Matchup: No. 10 Alabama (Thursday, 6 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose in quarterfinals
Mississippi (20-11, 10-8) offers an intriguing question: Can one standout player carry a team to a tournament championship and an automatic NCAA tournament berth? The Rebels have that kind of player in Stefan Moody, who could burst into national prominence with a run of big games in the SEC tournament.
Moody is averaging 23.1 points, and he poured in 43 points in a victory over Mississippi State last week. He had a season-low 12 points in the regular-season finale against Tennessee, but that was largely because he played just 21 minutes in a game the Rebels won by 23 points.
That last game was indicative of the roll the Rebels are on at the moment. Although the Rebels' late-season surge was due in large part to a conference schedule that was softer at the end than at the beginning, Mississippi's rise from a 1-5 conference start to its current 10-8 SEC record has to do wonders for the team's collective ego.
That state of mind and the presence of Moody should be enough to get the Rebels past Alabama, which has struggled lately and lost its only regular-season meeting with Mississippi.
That would not be enough to get Ole Miss into the NCAA tournament, and getting by Kentucky in Mississippi's second game will be a different story. Moody scored 23 points in the Rebels' only game against Kentucky this season, and the Wildcats still won that game by 22 points back on Jan. 2.
No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs
8 of 13
First Matchup: No. 11 Mississippi State (Thursday, 8:30 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose in semifinals
Georgia (17-12, 10-8) may need to win the SEC tournament to get an NCAA tournament berth, and it probably needs to win at least two games to have any shot. That is not impossible with the way the bracket is set up because the Bulldogs are 3-0 this season against their first two opponents, Mississippi State and South Carolina.
Georgia beat No. 3-seeded South Carolina both home and away this season, so the Bulldogs would like their chances against the Gamecocks in the quarterfinals. The issue is getting there.
Georgia's first opponent, Mississippi State, has played well down the stretch and will pose a major challenge. However, Georgia won the battle of the Bulldogs when they met for the only time this season in Starkville, Mississippi, and Georgia has righted itself from its embarrassing Feb. 6 loss to Auburn by winning all three games since.
Georgia guard J.J. Frazier has played some of his best basketball lately, averaging 22.4 points over the last five games. He could be the difference in the Bulldogs' first two tournament games.
Georgia is unlikely to get past Kentucky if it has to face the Wildcats in the semifinals, but the Bulldogs would at least be in the discussion for an at-large NCAA berth if they get that far.
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores
9 of 13
First Matchup: No. 12 Tennessee/No. 13 Auburn winner (Thursday, 2:30 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose in quarterfinals
Vanderbilt (19-12, 11-7) needs at least one win in the SEC tournament to feel good about its chances of landing an NCAA tournament bid, and two wins should assure the Commodores that bid. If Vanderbilt loses its opener, however, the Commodores will be in serious jeopardy of getting left out.
The Commodores are seeded ninth in Lunardi's latest 68-team projection, but Palm has Vanderbilt right on the edge, holding onto a No. 11 seed as one of the last four teams in his projected NCAA field. Losing to either Tennessee or Auburn in its first SEC tournament game would be the kind of bad loss Vanderbilt simply cannot afford.
Vanderbilt has no excuses if it loses its opener. The Commodores were 4-0 against Tennessee and Auburn during the regular season, and Vanderbilt has been playing good basketball of late, winning six of its last eight games, including a 13-point road win against Florida and a 12-point home victory over Kentucky.
In addition, the Tennessee-Auburn winner will have to recover from a Wednesday night game to face Vanderbilt on Thursday afternoon, giving the Commodores an advantage they probably shouldn't need.
Winning the opener would put Vanderbilt against LSU, with a win in that game probably solidifying the Commodores' NCAA berth. LSU is so hot and cold that you can never tell what you are going to get from the Tigers, who won their only game against Vanderbilt this season.
The key is 7'0" Vanderbilt center Damian Jones. He had just 12 points and four rebounds in Vanderbilt's 90-82 home loss to LSU on Jan. 2, and he had only 11 points and two boards in the nine-point loss to Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. Jones has played well recently, averaging 18.0 points and 9.2 rebounds over the six games immediately preceding the loss to the Aggies.
LSU found a way to slow Jones the first time the teams met and should do so again, ending the Commodores' run in the SEC tournament.
No. 4 LSU Tigers
10 of 13
First Matchup: No. 5 Vanderbilt/No. 12 Tennessee/No. 13 Auburn winner (Friday, 2:30 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose in semifinals
LSU (18-13, 11-7) may need to win the SEC tournament to get an NCAA berth, although getting to the finals might be enough to land an at-large berth. The only certainty is that the Tigers must win their first game in the SEC tournament to stay in the running for an NCAA bid.
It is virtually impossible to predict how the Tigers will fare this week. They have looked outstanding in some games, such as their 18-point win over Kentucky, their near victory against Oklahoma and their Feb. 13 win over Texas A&M. But they have been lousy in other games, such as the loss to Charleston and the recent consecutive losses to Arkansas and Tennessee by margins of 16 and 20 points, respectively.
Any team that has freshman standout Ben Simmons running the show has a chance, especially with fellow freshman Antonio Blakeney lifting his game and averaging 22.2 points over the final five games.
However, the Tigers are likely to be without guard Keith Hornsby, who has missed the past 3.5 games with a sports hernia injury. Hornsby, a senior, is the team's second-leading scorer and its best three-point shooter (41.5 percent). In games in which Hornsby was not available for the entire contest, LSU is just 6-6. The Tigers beat Kentucky by 18 points with Hornsby and lost to Kentucky by 17 points without him.
LSU received a bye into the SEC tournament quarterfinals and is likely to face Vanderbilt in its first game. The Tigers won at Vanderbilt in their only game against the Commodores, but Hornsby was a major factor in that game, scoring 23 points.
No. 3 South Carolina Gamecocks
11 of 13
First Matchup: No. 6 Georgia/No. 11 Mississippi State winner (Friday, 8:30 p.m.)
Prediction: Lose their opening game
South Carolina (24-7, 11-7) has a record that suggests an NCAA tournament berth is in the bag, but if the Gamecocks lose their opening game, that at-large berth could be in jeopardy. Palm and Lunardi have South Carolina as a No. 10 seed in their NCAA tournament projections, and Palm notes that the Gamecocks are a bubble team.
South Carolina received a bye into the quarterfinals and will be challenged by either team it could face. Both prospective opponents have played well lately, and both beat South Carolina within the past two weeks. In fact, Georgia beat South Carolina in both their meetings this season.
The Gamecocks regained some momentum by beating Arkansas by 15 points on the road in their final regular-season game, but this is not the same South Carolina team that tore things up for the first half of the season. South Carolina was 15-0 and ranked No. 19 before its unbeaten season came to an abrupt end with a 23-point loss to Alabama. South Carolina was 3-4 over its final seven games, including an ugly loss to last-place Missouri and a 27-point pounding at the hands of Kentucky.
Another concern is the health of Michael Carrera, the team's leading scorer and rebounder. The Gamecocks did fine with Carrera sitting out the Arkansas game with a hip injury, but they may not have the same result without him against Mississippi State or Georgia.
Coach Frank Martin will determine Carrera's status for the SEC tournament as the week progresses, telling David Caraviello of the Post and Courier on March 7 that he wants to ensure Carrera is healthy for the postseason. Evidently, Martin believes the Gamecocks are safely into the NCAA tournament regardless of what they do Friday. If Carrera does not play and the Gamecocks lose their opener, Martin could be in for a big surprise.
No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats
12 of 13
First Matchup: No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Mississippi winner (Friday, 6 p.m.)
Prediction: Win SEC tournament
Kentucky (23-8, 13-5) is not the team people thought it was at the end of November, when they were 7-0 and ranked No. 1. But with the collection of talent coach John Calipari has at his disposal, the Wildcats are still capable of amazing feats.
If the SEC tournament was held at Rupp Arena, where Kentucky is 17-0, the Wildcats might be prohibitive favorites. The early-season win over Duke and the overtime losses on the road against Kansas and Texas A&M demonstrate how good the Wildcats can be when they have all their pieces working. However, this Kentucky team is not nearly the consistent machine Calipari had last year. Inexplicable losses to Auburn and Tennessee proved that.
Kentucky is in no danger of missing the NCAA tournament, but its players figure to be focused for the conference tournament as many of them audition for the NBA draft. Freshman Jamal Murray has been outstanding lately, scoring more than 20 points in each of the last 10 games, and he is not even the most important player on the team. That honor belongs to point guard Tyler Ulis, who has increased his production over the second half of the season. Kentucky won seven of its final nine games, and Ulis averaged 17.3 points and a whopping 10.2 assists over that span.
Kentucky was 3-0 in its games against Alabama and Mississippi this season, and none of those games were close. The Wildcats' biggest challenge would probably come in the conference tournament finals, where they could face LSU or Texas A&M, both of whom own wins over the Wildcats this season.
But with the Wildcats now healthy and understanding their roles and limitations, they should come home with a conference tournament title.
No. 1 Texas A&M Aggies
13 of 13
First matchup: No. 8 Florida/No. 9 Arkansas winner (Friday, noon)
Prediction: Lose in tournament finals
Texas A&M (24-7, 13-5) has had a season of starts and stops. The Aggies looked like one of the best teams in the country when they won 10 games in a row and rose to No. 5 in the rankings at the end of January. But they looked vulnerable during a four-game losing streak in early February. They made another U-turn by winning their final six games of the regular season, and they seem to be playing at a high level again heading into the SEC tournament.
Texas A&M has star players in Jalen Jones and Danuel House, but the Aggies' key to success has been their willingness to share the ball. They rank ninth in the country in assists per game (17.4), a number that is more impressive when you consider that the Aggies rank only 104th in scoring, according to ESPN.com.
Texas A&M split its two regular-season games against Arkansas and won its only encounter with Florida by just three points. However, the Aggies are playing better at the moment than either of those potential quarterfinal opponents. A bigger challenge will come in the semifinals against either LSU or Vanderbilt. The Aggies split a pair of games with each of those teams during the regular season, and both have the talent to knock off Texas A&M. However, Texas A&M's depth should come into play by Saturday's game, allowing the Aggies to reach the conference tournament finals.
That's where the Aggies will lose, assuming Kentucky is the opponent. Texas A&M won its only regular-season matchup with Kentucky, but that game was played at College Station and went to overtime. The Wildcats should have the upper hand on a neutral court.
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