Previewing the 20 Biggest Names on the 2016 NBA Free-Agent Market
Buckle up, NBA fans. This summer's free-agent frenzy could get crazy.
Nearly every club has spending money, thanks to the rising salary cap. And while this isn't the best group of hoopers-for-hire we've seen in recent years, it is headlined by two of the game's greats and decently stocked with stars and support pieces behind them.
While the market won't open for a few more months, the planning portion has been underway for a while. In that spirit, we're taking an early glimpse at the top 20 members of the upcoming class.
The list includes everyone who could be a free agent this summer and shows each player's contract situation. All 20 players were then ranked by their talent, production and potential.
20. Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers
1 of 20
FA Type: Restricted
Age: 23
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 15.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 44.9 FG%, 14.7 PER
Slippery off the bounce and fearless at the rim, Jordan Clarkson will have his fair share of fans in free agency.
But none of his suitors will have the luxury of seeing how he'd produce for a winning team. During his two years with the Los Angeles Lakers, they've gone a dismal 32-106. That record isn't all on Clarkson, but it makes his numbers tough to decipher.
He's a solid player in several aspects, but he doesn't consistently shine in any one. He's a forgettable playmaker (career 3.1 assists per game), a subpar three-point shooter (career 34 percent) and a good-not-great scorer. Still, he can turn heads with his athleticism, and there's considerable room for upside given both his age and experience.
What does that combination equal? Unfortunately, not much more than a slew of question marks for now.
"Should Clarkson come off the bench? Can he make teammates better?" Bleacher Report's Michael Pina wrote. "Is he system-dependent? Would he thrive or crumble on a good team? Is he a poor man's Monta Ellis or a miniature Dwyane Wade?"
19. Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks
2 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 26
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 12.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.3 SPG, 13.7 PER
With three-plus seasons of NBA service under his belt, Kent Bazemore lacks the track record to confidently call him a prototypical three-and-D wing. That being said, he's filled that very role for the Atlanta Hawks this year.
Pressed into duty by DeMarre Carroll's departure, Bazemore has masterfully handled the added responsibilities. Despite shattering his previous highs in minutes (28.4) and field-goal attempts (9.9), he's posting personal-best shooting rates from all three levels: 44.6 from the field, 38.2 from long range and 83 at the charity stripe.
With a 6'11 ½" wingspan stretching out from his 6'5" frame, he's a pesky defensive presence. A two-time CAA Defensive Player of the Year at Old Dominion, he's currently knocking 1.7 percentage points off his opponent's normal field-goal percentage.
Bringing him back should be a priority for the Hawks, as he fits their system as both a willing passer and capable outside shooter. But he's also unlikely to be short on suitors, so Atlanta may have to pay a premium if it wants to keep him.
18. Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans
3 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 27
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 14.9 PPG, 2.7 APG, 1.0 SPG, 37.5 3P%, 13.1 PER
Eric Gordon's NBA career has been less of a roller coaster and more like a quick climb to near-stardom followed by an injury-riddled fall down the mountain.
He's among the biggest "buyer beware" players in this free-agency class. He hasn't made more than 64 appearances since his rookie year in 2008-09, plagued by knee problems, a shoulder injury and currently a fractured finger.
Those maladies will be reflected in whatever contract he signs, but so will his skill set that was once deemed strong enough to help anchor a trade for Chris Paul. When Gordon's been healthy, he has bolstered the New Orleans Pelicans with accurate outside shooting, handles to break down defenders and enough passing chops to serve as a secondary playmaker.
Despite his rocky tenure in the Big Easy, the Pelicans could try to re-sign him. If nothing else, his long-range stroke can help spread the floor and take some of the defensive pressure off Anthony Davis.
17. Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
4 of 20
FA Type: Player Option
Age: 35
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 17.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 BPG, 47.6 FG%, 22.3 PER
Technically, Pau Gasol holds a $7.7 million player option for 2016-17. But after restoring his value with back-to-back All-Star campaigns for the Chicago Bulls, that will be an easy decision to decline.
What could require some thought, though, is whether he'd like to stick around the Windy City. He hasn't had the easiest adjustment to first-year coach Fred Hoiberg's pace-and-space offense, but he also hasn't closed the door on a return.
"I'm happy here. I like a lot of things about my situation here. Now let's see if we can make the basketball better," Gasol said, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "That would be ideal. If we can fix that, it's obviously something I would want to continue to be a part of."
Gasol has mostly lost the mobility he once had, but he's had some effectiveness as a defensive anchor. At the other end, he's a comfortable shooter beyond the arc (career-high 16 triples on 40.0 percent shooting this season), a skilled scorer in the post and a crafty passer from all over.
16. Festus Ezeli, Golden State Warriors
5 of 20
FA Type: Restricted
Age: 26
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 7.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 55.7 FG%, 18.2 PER
Festus Ezeli plays a critical role for the Golden State Warriors, injecting them with rim protection, energy and athleticism off the pine. But he's talented enough to handle a much heavier load.
With Andrew Bogut in front of him and loads of frontcourt options around, Ezeli was only getting 17.8 minutes a night before knee surgery sidelined him. Take that into account, and his per-game marks look dramatically different. In terms of per-36-minute production, he's gone for 15.2 points, 11.9 boards and 2.5 blocks.
Those are starting-center numbers. And they aren't the only ones suggesting Ezeli could hold his own in an opening lineup. He ranks 18th among all centers with a 2.80 real plus-minus, per ESPN.com, and 21st in player efficiency rating (minimum 15 minutes per game).
His offensive range may never extend outside the restricted area, and this isn't his first knee procedure. But as a mobile, rim-running, screen-setting big man, he's a critical piece of the Warriors' reserve unit and could spark another team's starting five if it offers more money than Golden State wants to match.
15. Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
6 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 26
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 12.5 PPG, 11.2 RPB, 3.8 BPG, 62.2 FG%, 24.2 PER
Only the Miami Heat know whether surprise star Hassan Whiteside has played his way into their long-term plans.
So many numbers say it should be a no-brainer. His blocks average is the highest the NBA has seen in nearly 20 years. He ranks second in field-goal percentage, fifth in rebounds and ninth in player efficiency rating. He's one of only 11 players averaging a points-rebounds double-double.
But players are more than their individual stats. And the rest of Whiteside's game paints an incomplete picture.
Part of his incredible block total stems from his propensity to chase them, which exposes the interior of Miami's defense. To that end, the Heat surrender 1.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he doesn't play, and their defensive rebounding percentage drops 4.3 points when he does. He's averse to passing—21 assists in 113 career games—and does the bulk of his scoring on point-blank shots.
His raw talent is glaring, but he needs polish. Whoever signs him could get either a superstar on the rise, an albatross contract or anything in between.
14. Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors
7 of 20
FA Type: Restricted
Age: 23
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 12.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 40.3 3P%, 13.6 PER
Harrison Barnes is among the toughest players to evaluate in this free-agent crop. The eye of the beholder can put him in different lights.
Some might see a player protected by the Golden State Warriors, a guy who benefits from the world-class talent around him and his low-risk role. Others could paint him as a superstar-in-waiting, someone who just needs a big enough opportunity to tap into a wealth of potential.
"We know that Barnes, every so often, is capable of being a great player and carrying a team on his shoulders," Basketball Insiders' Moke Hamilton wrote. "... But the question that needs to be determined is whether or not, like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler, he is able to carry that burden each and every night."
Barnes has dazzled for the Dubs as a versatile forward who provides corner shooting, off-ball cutting and a potent blend of perimeter and post defense. But he's yet to prove himself as a shot-creator for his own looks or his teammates'. If Golden State decides there's a cap on how much his contributions are worth, it'll be interesting to see if the 6'8" swingman can draw a max offer from someone else.
13. Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks
8 of 20
FA Type: Player Option
Age: 27
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 12.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 42.0 3P%, 15.4 PER
Take Chandler Parsons' season stats at face value, and one might assume it's in his best interest to pick up his $16 million player option for 2016-17. They aren't disappointing numbers, but they're far from elite. Forty-one different players are averaging at least 12 points, four boards and two dimes.
But those digits don't accurately reflect Parsons' talent.
They were dulled early in the year by his return from microfracture knee surgery, and he's been feverishly working to build them back up since. Over his last 14 outings, he's tallied 20.6 points (on 53.9 percent shooting, 53.8 percent from deep), 6.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists. Only nine players are clearing 20 points, six rebounds and two assists a night.
"I think he's a very special player," Dallas Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. "I mean, look around the league. How many 6'9 ½" guys can do the things he can do with the basketball? Who can make plays off the dribble, can handle like a point guard, can finish at the rim, make runners, make mid-range shots and make threes?"
Put it that way, and it sounds like Parsons should decline that option, and Mavs owner Mark Cuban should empty his wallet to ensure Parsons eventually helps them navigate the post-Dirk Nowitzki era.
12. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
9 of 20
FA Type: Player Option
Age: 37
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 17.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 38.1 3P%, 18.8 PER
Dirk Nowitzki is a potential free-agent-to-be in title only. He'll never don a different NBA jersey than the Dallas Mavericks one he's rocked since 1998, and he's already publicized his plans to pick up an $8.6 million player option for next season.
"I'm going to definitely ride this contract out (this season and next)," he told USA Today's Sam Amick.
This should surprise no one. When Nowitzki last hit the open market in 2014, he inked a discounted three-year deal to maximize the Mavericks' buying power. Exercising this option was always part of the plan.
Still, it's fun to imagine how much money he could command in free agency. At 37 years old, he's the leading scorer on the Western Conference's No. 6 seed. He's also one of only six players averaging at least 17 points, six rebounds and 1.5 threes per game—and the lone 7-footer on the list.
11. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
10 of 20
FA Type: Player Option
Age: 39
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 8.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.4 BPG, 17.1 PER
The Alamo City's fountain of youth is alive and well, once again helping Tim Duncan challenge Father Time's unblemished record.
The San Antonio Spurs have seen his workload cut to a career-low 25.7 minutes per game, and the rest of his stat sheet has followed suit. But his per-36-minute marks of 12.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.9 blocks speak to the fact he still has plenty left in the tank. That he leads the league with a 6.78 defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com, proves he isn't bound by the same clock as the rest of us.
He has handled the transition from superstar to support piece. He's still a sturdy scoring option when needed (49.0 field-goal percentage), and he takes full advantage of the new weapons around him (his per-36-minute assists rate is a personal best). And he's making an enormous impact on the defensive side, where he's held opponents to 41.0 percent shooting—six points below their average.
Retirement is always a threat to poach an aging player, and Duncan is no exception. But with his game and his squad both as strong as they've been, he could have a hard time declining his $5.6 million player option.
10. Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
11 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 27
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 14.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 35.0 3P%, 14.8 PER
Jack of all trades doesn't sound like the most flattering description, but it's the reason Nicolas Batum has put himself in max-contract discussions. He's never quite harnessed a singular superstar-level strength, but his far-reaching appeal stems from having no discernible weaknesses.
"He can handle, he can shoot, he can drive and finish, he can pass and defend," CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote. "Batum may not be the top-tier star of a team, but he is certainly a guy you want playing on the wing for your team."
After a frustrating, injury-filled 2014-15, Batum was re-energized by an offseason trade to the Charlotte Hornets. Pressed into heavier duty as both a scorer and distributor, he's delivered career bests in points and assists, along with his second-highest rebounding average.
He's malleable enough to fit multiple situations on either side of the ball. That's one of the most coveted traits in today's NBA, so he'll likely have a slew of suitors lined up behind the Hornets.
9. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
12 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 34
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 18.7 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 45.8 FG%, 20.8 PER
It took a while for Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat to find common ground in last summer's negotiations before the sides settled on a one-year, $20 million arrangement. The Hall of Fame-bound shooting guard is hoping to avoid that delay this time around.
"The whole free agency thing, I didn't want to be in it last summer; I don't want to be in it this summer," he told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "I don't want to be on the market at all. ... I'm not curious at all. I want to get to it [with the Heat]."
Despite never harnessing the three-point shot, Wade has remained All-Star-relevant in this perimeter-oriented NBA. What he's lost in explosiveness, he's replaced in hoops smarts, shaking defenders with ball fakes, speed changes and a growing post game. He's not quite the Wade of yesteryear, but he is one of just 16 players averaging 18 points, four assists and four rebounds.
That Wade has appeared in 50 of Miami's 55 games this season should increase the franchise's confidence in giving him a hefty contract. The Heat have to leave enough room for other signings, but there should be a common ground where they're flexible and he's satisfied.
8. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
13 of 20
FA Type: Player Option
Age: 30
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 14.6 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 61.3 FG%, 20.1 PER
Dwight Howard's cape is gone, along with his Superman stats. Injuries and age have dropped him a peg or two below the NBA's elite, but he hasn't fallen as far as some may think.
"Howard is third in the NBA in rebounding and field-goal percentage," The Vertical's Chris Mannix wrote. "He's not an automatic double-team anymore, but he's a difficult cover in the post and a load to keep off the glass. Mock him, belittle him, but good luck finding six or seven true centers better than him."
Howard is still a load on the interior, particularly when he's exploding out of a pick-and-roll. He has never really found the right touch on his back-to-the-basket shots, yet his power and physicality still allow him to convert 75.2 percent of his shots at the rim. He's also still a valuable defensive presence in the middle, though a loss in athleticism has limited his ability to cover up teammates' mistakes.
Once he ditches his $23.2 million player option, his venture into free agency will be fascinating. He could come back to the Houston Rockets, but that group appears in need of a shake-up. If he looks outside of Houston, he could be the answer to the Boston Celtics' rim-protecting needs or the type of free-agent risk the small-market Charlotte Hornets need to take.
7. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
14 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 28
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 15.1 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, 36.2 3P%, 19.2 PER
Mike Conley has struggled to find the proper recognition for years. He's a good point guard who just happens to be playing in a period littered with great ones. Plus, the Memphis Grizzlies aren't exactly the most marketable team this league has to offer.
But this summer, the spotlight will be his to savor. He's several stories removed from the closest free-agent point guard, whether that's a reclamation project (Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams) or an unproven up-and-comer (Jordan Clarkson). Even though this year hasn't been Conley's best—his 41.5 field-goal percentage is a career low—he still picked the perfect time to enter the market.
The salary cap is getting ready to burst like a faulty fire hydrant—$92 million is the most recent estimate, per ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. The collection of floor generals behind him is flawed. And he'll have major-market suitors, with both the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets reportedly set to "be all over Conley," sources told Marc Berman and Fred Kerber of the New York Post.
The most likely scenario seems to be Conley re-signing with Memphis. But no matter where he signs, his long-awaited appearance atop the position will result in a major-money deal.
6. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
15 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 29
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 15.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.5 BPG, 50.6 FG%, 19.7 PER
Al Horford made his first All-Star appearance in 2010. He's been a part of the league's most underrated conversations even longer. Through a powerful amalgamation of size, skill, strength and athleticism, he's built his foundation around maximizing strengths and minimizing weaknesses.
The special thing about his skill set, though, is its constant expansion. From increasing his shooting range to tightening his handles, he's always working to stay a step ahead of his peers.
"The NBA game is changing a lot," Horford told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears. "... For me, I'm in the process of re-changing some aspects of my game to fit this new mold."
Horford has become a unique two-way weapon. He's one of only seven players with at least 50 blocks and 50 threes this season. He's a great pick-and-roll partner, he can bully his way to baskets underneath and he can set teammates up with timely assists. Defensively, he does everything: shot-blocking, post battling, perimeter switching, three-point contesting.
That's why, despite turning 30 this summer, he should have a max offer waiting for him. And it's probably safe to assume it will come from the Atlanta Hawks because they didn't trade him when they had the chance.
5. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
16 of 20
FA Type: Restricted
Age: 22
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 18.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.9 APG, 46.7 FG%, 16.9 PER
If Bradley Beal was simply a three-point specialist, he might still be worthy of a max deal. That's how good his long ball has been—40.3 percent since 2013-14, which is 11th overall (minimum 500 attempts).
But he's more than just a marksman. This season, he's one of just nine perimeter players averaging at least 18 points while shooting above 46 percent from the field. He's also a crafty passer and a scrappy, disruptive defender when he's dialed in.
He has superstar skills right now—he averaged 23.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.6 assists in last year's playoffs—and substantial room for growth. He also has a somewhat terrifying injury history, with four stress injuries to his right fibula in four NBA seasons. But even though he could be looking at minutes restrictions for the rest of his career, he's still worth a long-term investment for the Washington Wizards.
"The Wizards are still going to max Beal," NBA.com's David Aldridge wrote. "... The Wizards will just have to start Beal's maintenance program sooner. There's no reason he can't still be an All-Star-caliber player at 30 to 35 minutes a night."
4. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
17 of 20
FA Type: Player Option
Age: 26
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 23.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 44.4 FG%, 21.3 PER
DeMar DeRozan brings an All-Star style from a different generation. He's an old-school 2 guard, one who utilizes athleticism and aggression instead of outside shooting as his primary scoring source.
This is his third straight season as a 20-point scorer and by far his best balance of volume and efficiency. He has curtailed most of the mid-range looks that previously sabotaged his shooting rates, lifted his three-point stroke closer to mediocrity (33.7 percent) and, most importantly, attacked the basket like a bitter enemy. He ranks second in drives per game (11.6) and third in free-throw attempts (8.4).
This may not be DeRozan at his absolute best, but it's the highest level he's reached so far. He's shattered his previous highs in usage percentage (29.7), PER and assist percentage (21.1) while outperforming his career shooting marks from all three levels.
Potential suitors are taking notice. According to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, "a bunch of teams ... are prepared to offer him a max deal." But DeRozan admitted to ESPN.com's Marc Stein that it would be "pretty tough" to lure him away from the Toronto Raptors.
3. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
18 of 20
FA Type: Restricted
Age: 22
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 16.9 PPG, 14.9 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 51.7 FG%, 21.5 PER
Andre Drummond shouldn't be possible. His combination of size and explosiveness seems like the grand prize at a basketball science fair. He's a 6'11", 279-pound giant with enough athleticism to participate in the Slam Dunk Contest.
That makes it difficult to fret over his deficiencies. His free-throw struggles are well-documented (35.3 percent), and he's had trouble with a sputtering motor since college. Those problems would keep most guys out of the top 10, let alone the top three.
But Drummond has gifts that can be neither taught nor learned. And, as this season's youngest All-Star, the Detroit Pistons' hyper-athletic center is just getting started.
"He's always been big and he's always been athletic," Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers said, per ESPN.com's Arash Markazi, "and now he knows how to move."
Drummond, who's turned a max deal from the Pistons from a possibility into a formality, is having a historically dominant campaign. If the season stopped today, he'd be just the fourth player ever to average at least 16 points, 14 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. It's incredible to think he won't be the best free agent on the market, but he's stuck behind NBA royalty.
2. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
19 of 20
FA Type: Player Option
Age: 31
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 25.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 50.5 FG%, 26.9 PER
Want to appreciate LeBron James' greatness for a moment? Realize that those numbers represent a down year for him. These are the fewest points he's averaged since his rookie year and his second-lowest PER since 2006-07, and his assist average lags behind his career rate (6.9).
Now, realize how special these stats actually are. Only six other players have ever averaged at least 25 points, seven rebounds and six assists while shooting 50-plus percent from the field.
"LeBron is starting to show his age in small ways, but he's still a top-three player, the best of his generation and a guy who makes everyone around him better," SB Nation's Tom Ziller wrote.
James' stay in free agency won't last long. He'll almost certainly decline his $24 million player option before re-signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers to help maximize his take of the growing salary cap.
That lack of excitement isn't why the No. 1 spot belongs to someone other than James, though. As the King inches out of his prime, this perennial superstar and historically dominant scorer still resides in the highest reaches of the league.
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
20 of 20
FA Type: Unrestricted
Age: 27
2015-16 Notable Numbers: 27.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.2 BPG, 50.8 FG%, 28.1 PER
It's tempting to call Kevin Durant a once-in-a-generation scorer, but not every generation has an explosive offensive weapon like this. Both the quantity and quality of his point-production ability are nearly unrivaled. He owns the fourth-highest career scoring average in NBA history (27.34) and the fourth-best true shooting percentage out of the 62 players to average 20-plus career points (60.4).
After missing most of last season to three foot surgeries, Durant has reclaimed his post near the top of the superstar ranks. He's within striking distance of his second 50-40-90 shooting slash while sitting third in scoring, third in PER, second in true shooting percentage (63.5) and third in total win shares (9.9).
"He's proven to be one of the great scorers of right now, but maybe the history of the game with his efficiency," Oklahoma City Thunder coach Billy Donovan said, per Cliff Brunt of the Associated Press. "I think the one thing I admire with Kevin is his willingness to pass and make people better and be a playmaker. I think there's so much more to his game than scoring."
With perimeter skills and low-post length (6'9" frame with a 7'4 ¾" wingspan), he's the ideal weapon for today's spread-out style of play. He should be at the top of everyone's wish list, starting with OKC but also including his hometown Wizards, the defending champion Dubs, the superstar-focused Heat and any other teams with max dollars and a dream.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Feb. 20. Contract information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
