Surprise Max-Contract Candidates for the 2016 NBA Free-Agent Class
The path to a max contract can be a simple one for the select few players who are sitting atop the NBA's free-agent crop. Score like Kevin Durant, saturate a stat sheet like LeBron James or wreak interior havoc like Andre Drummond, and nine-figure deals become formalities.
But not every 2016 max-contract candidate has always had a jackpot payday within reach. The six players listed here have forced their way into that discussion in a variety of bank account-bursting ways.
Timing has helped a few of them. One has the singular skill that every modern team desires, while another bounced back from a down year and will head into free agency at arguably his best.
Others have flashed top-tier talent but also raised questions of whether that could (or should) translate to this level of pay raise. Whether limited by their role, bothered by injury or held back by an on-court limitation, these players have spurred arguments both for and against their max-money credentials.
Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
1 of 6
Ryan Anderson is a specialist.
He's a quantity-plus-quality shooter, averaging better than two triples per game on 38-plus percent shooting in five of the last six seasons. To appreciate the significance of that combination, only Stephen Curry has matched that production (though the reigning MVP has done it during all six campaigns).
Adding to Anderson's appeal is the fact he stands 6'10". For teams that crave a floor-spacing big—which is basically every club that doesn't have one—the 27-year-old free-agent-to-be should be at or near the top of their wish list.
"Ryan Anderson is pretty close to the perfect stretch 4 for today's NBA," CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote. "He's not a great defender, but he's an active rebounder, a smart guy and an absolutely disgustingly good shooter."
Anderson's strengths are clear, but so are his deficiencies. He's a turnstile defensively—ESPN.com's real plus-minus puts him 91st among 92 power forwards on that end—and he's only tallied over one assist per game during two of his eight big league seasons.
With 470 regular-season outings under his belt, it's unlikely his game will grow beyond its current limits. But given today's value on long-range shooting, one executive told Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times he "expects Ryan Anderson to be a max player this summer, just based on market."
It's hard to imagine a max price tag on a one-dimensional player, but Anderson might have the right dimension for the current climate.
Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors
2 of 6
Most fourth options would struggle to sniff a top-tier salary, but Golden State Warriors swingman Harrison Barnes is far from the typical No. 4.
In 2010, he became the first freshman to be named an Associated Press preseason All-American since voting began in 1986. While two uneven years at North Carolina quieted talks of him being a once-in-a-generation talent, he still shows flashes of elite ability packed into his uber-athletic 6'8" frame.
His ability to handle multiple assignments helps Golden State's switch-everything defense operate at a championship level. And, as both a floor-spacer (40.0 percent three-point shooting since the start of last season) and aerial acrobat, he plays a critical—albeit complementary—role in the Warriors' historically prolific offense.
But his standing on the team's totem pole complicates financial valuations of his game. The Warriors, who can match any offer he receives in restricted free agency, must decide if there's a dollar limit on his impact and what that is. Back in September, they put a four-year, $64 million offer in front of him that he declined, per The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Some of his stats have climbed since—including career highs in points (12.0), assists (1.8) and minutes (29.5)—but his line doesn't look like that of a typical max-money recipient. Suitors must decipher how much volume and/or efficiency he could add in a larger role. If even one believes he's capable of a sizable leap, a potential Powerball-sized payday could await him.
"Barnes is right to bet on someone offering him a max deal—averaging as much as $23 million per season—if he gets to free agency," ESPN.com's Zach Lowe wrote in September (then for Grantland). "Any team dangling a max contract at Barnes will be betting there is a borderline star ready to smash through the walls that Golden State's infrastructure places around him."
Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
3 of 6
A league-wide priority on versatility has Nicolas Batum eyeing a potential max just one season removed from arguably his worst as a pro.
A lengthy battle with a pesky wrist problem limited the 6'8" Frenchman to career-worst shooting marks from the field (40.0) and three (32.4) in 2014-15. But after being swapped from the Portland Trail Blazers to the Charlotte Hornets over the offseason, he's gotten back to his stat-sheet-stuffing best.
He's scoring (14.7 points per game) and assisting (5.5) at personal-best rates. His true shooting percentage has climbed more than two points from last year (53.8, up from 51.6). He's also one of only five players who are averaging at least 14 points, six rebounds and five assists—a distinction shared with All-Stars Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, James Harden and Draymond Green.
Batum has the playmaking chops to run an offense and the shooting stroke to play off the ball. He's quick enough to stay in front of perimeter players and long enough (6'8" with a 7'0 ¾" wingspan) to bother low-post bruisers.
"He's a really talented player," Hornets coach Steve Clifford told Sports Illustrated's Kenny Ducey. "He actually plays, to me, a lot like Tracy McGrady played. Great size, excellent vision and the ability to deliver passes also off the dribble."
The McGrady comparison is a slight oversell, but Batum is uniquely talented. And he's skilled in a way that is likely to command top dollar on the open market.
"[The Hornets are] just gonna have to give (a full max) to keep him," ESPN's Tom Penn said, per Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
4 of 6
Bradley Beal fits the statistical profile of a max-contract candidate.
He's a velvet-smooth scorer with the handles to break down defenders and the athleticism to finish at the rim. He's constantly improving as a playmaker and pick-and-roll navigator. And his most marketable skill happens to be the most coveted asset in today's league: perimeter proficiency.
The 22-year-old has converted 40 percent of his three-point shots over three-plus seasons, the 11th-best conversion rate during that stretch (minimum 300 makes). This year, he's both an 89th-percentile scorer on spot-up shots (1.15 points per possession) and 40.7 percent sniper on pull-up triples.
So, what's surprising about the max money likely awaiting him at season's end? His health history is almost at Stephen King levels of terrifying. Beal has lost chunks of every NBA campaign he's played to stress reactions in his lower right leg.
The cumulative toll of those repeat injuries has left him facing potential minute restrictions for the duration of his career.
"Probably, especially with the way my body works," Beal said in January, per CSN's J. Michael. "It doesn't want to listen to me so I got to as much as I can take care of it, be smart about it moving forward through the rest of my career. That's probably something that's going to happen every year."
Beal's proactive response is probably smart, but it's a curious sales pitch for an impending restricted free agent. That being said, it reportedly won't stop the Washington Wizards from overstuffing his bank account this summer.
"The Wizards are still going to max Beal," NBA.com's David Aldridge wrote. "There's no reason he can't still be an All-Star-caliber player at 30-35 minutes per night."
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
5 of 6
DeMar DeRozan entered the 2015-16 campaign as a shooting guard who couldn't shoot. In today's league, that label essentially functions as a barricade separating those who wear it from top-dollar contracts.
Despite boosting his three-point percentage to a career-high 33.7, the Toronto Raptors All-Star swingman is still not considered a shooter. He is, however, reportedly in line to have his pick of max offers come summertime.
"A bunch of teams, including DeRozan's hometown Lakers, are prepared to offer him a max deal starting at $25 million per season," ESPN.com's Zach Lowe wrote, "and the Raptors know they will have to spend big to keep him."
How did DeRozan, a seven-year veteran, secure a jackpot-sized payday without completely fixing his biggest weakness? He sharpened his existing strengths.
He leveraged his explosive athleticism by upping his aggressiveness. He chopped his average field-goal distance down to 11.3—the lowest it's been since 2010-11—and earned a career-high 8.4 free-throw attempts per game. Buoyed by his best field-goal percentage in three years (44.4), he's reached new high marks in points (23.4) and player efficiency rating (21.3).
"DeRozan has looked the part of a star the previous couple years," NBC Sports' Dan Feldman wrote. "This season, he has produced like a star, too."
In a few months, DeRozan will have the salary to match his blossoming star status.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat
6 of 6
Every free-agent addition carries a certain degree of risk and reward. But in the case of Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside, the two extremes are as massive as his 7'0", 265-pound frame.
Some of his statistics don't even fit in the virtual realm. He's tallied a league-best 3.9 blocks in just 28.2 minutes per night. The last NBA player to average that many blocks was Alonzo Mourning in 1998-99. The last to do it in fewer than 29 minutes per game was the late Manute Bol in 1988-89. Whiteside also has four 10-block efforts since the start of last season—four more than the rest of the league.
Plus, Whiteside is more than a shot-blocker. His 61.7 field-goal percentage trails only DeAndre Jordan's 70.3. Whiteside's 23.7 PER ranks ninth overall. And, with nightly contributions of 12.2 points and 11.0 rebounds, he's one of only nine centers who are averaging a double-double.
"After playing so well since joining the Heat, Whiteside seems like a lock to sign a maximum contract in July," Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy wrote. "Big men get big paydays, especially ones who post numbers like Whiteside."
But the big guy will be a tricky investment, particularly if he scores max money.
His track record is tiny, since he's made just 112 appearances and 72 starts since his career began in 2010-11. More experience could help elevate his game, but he'll turn 27 over the summer, so his ceiling could be limited. And, despite his gaudy individual numbers, the Heat have been nearly the same team with him (plus-0.9 points per 100 possessions) as without (plus-0.8).
His suitors will have to weigh all those factors—plus the maturity concerns he hasn't really quieted—before determining whether he's worth top dollar. Still, the fact he's in that discussion less than two years removed from his last NBA Development League appearance is nothing short of amazing.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Feb. 19.
