Tennessee Football: Realistic Goals for Quarterback Joshua Dobbs in 2016
Analysts around the nation are picking the Tennessee football team to be a lock for a big 2016, and quarterback Joshua Dobbs holds the key.
The senior-to-be signal-caller will be the unequivocal starter in his final season on Rocky Top, but how far the player nicknamed Rocket rises will determine how high the Volunteers can go in the rankings.
A step forward in 2015 was noticeable when Dobbs passed for 2,291 yards and 15 touchdowns against just five interceptions to go along with 671 rushing yards and another 11 scores. At times, he displayed the necessary leadership to carry the team through pivotal moments of big games.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
In others, however, he was inconsistent. The 6'3", 207-pound Alpharetta, Georgia, native averaged 176 passing yards per game and completed 59.6 percent of his passes, sputtering to post passing numbers strong enough for a balanced attack against Oklahoma and Florida.
Those stats were solid, but the Vols struggled to maintain any consistent downfield attack throughout the year. Their ability to manufacture first downs with the run game was due largely to the pressure Dobbs' legs put on defenses.
But his arm rarely kept opponents honest.
Many are enamored with Dobbs' seemingly limitless physical capabilities and mental makeup that could make him the face of the SEC. But all that must materialize in the ability to stretch the Vols' passing threat window and ultimately produce chunk gains. He hasn't been able to do that yet.
UT finished ninth in the SEC in passing plays of more than 30 yards.
Every single player in the country needs to improve various aspects of their play, so regardless of what kind of polarizing figure Dobbs is as a nontraditional quarterback, one thing is certain: Tennessee is fortunate to have him.
That's something most will agree on, including GoVols247 reporter Wes Rucker, who reminded fans not to lose sight of what kind of special talent the Vols have at quarterback:
Dobbs will be a seasoned, supertalented star in 2016. But where should the measuring sticks show major gains in Dobbs' game next year? Let's take a look at some realistic goals for the UT signal-caller.
Goal 1: 3,800 total yards
You may think expecting a quarterback to increase his total yardage by nearly 800 yards in a single season is a bit outlandish, but Dobbs has that kind of untapped potential.
In 2015, he finished with 3,020 total yards (if you count the 58-yard reception he had against Florida). Considering that the Vols are going to retailor their receiving corps to utilize more yards-after-catch guys, speedy targets who can turn short passes into big gains, that could benefit Dobbs.
He won't have to be elite throwing 20-yard passes if he has more receivers who can turn five-yard swings and slants into big gains. That should be the case with Josh Smith, Vincent Perry, Marquez Callaway, Latrell Williams and Corey Henderson now battling for reps.
"I think anytime you look at the elite of the elite in college football, they're usually the fastest teams that are left standing at the end," UT passing game coordinator Zach Azzanni told GoVols247's Ryan Callahan. "We really tried to address our speed on the perimeter, and we're going to keep doing that."
Having those blazers in the rotation should help Dobbs, but how much?
This may wind up being the most far-fetched goal of the group through no fault of Dobbs. When you have Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara in the backfield, you simply must hand the ball off—a lot. And that will diminish Dobbs' personal touches.
But if he tunes up his passing game, this number isn't out of reach.
If Dobbs gets to 800 rushing yards (and he should), he'd have to average just over 230 passing yards per game to reach the 3,800-yard mark. That number would have put him fourth in the league this past year. There's also the possibility that the Vols could play one (or more) games than they did in 2015 (more on that later).
Goal 2: 35 total touchdowns
For all the heat first-year offensive coordinator Mike DeBord took for his conservative play-calling, the Vols offense was rather prolific.
Tennessee finished third in the SEC with an average of 35.2 points per game, trailing only Ole Miss and Arkansas. Dobbs was a huge reason for that, finishing with a combined 26 touchdowns.
With the ground-tilling triumvirate back in 2016 along with an O-line that lost only left tackle Kyler Kerbyson, those numbers should get even better. Dobbs' rushing scores shouldn't go down if the Vols are in the red zone as often as they should be.
So, if the passing game improves the way it should with a better grasp of DeBord's scheme in Year 2, finishing with nine more touchdowns shouldn't be out of the question for the signal-caller.
If Dobbs is a part of UT crossing the goal line 35 times, it's going to be a season to remember on Rocky Top. How well had he begun to grasp the concepts toward the end of the year? Check out this highlight-reel run against Northwestern in the Outback Bowl, as shared by Fox Sports Knoxville:
That was one of the best plays of the entire bowl season.
Some people want to toss around comparisons for Dobbs and use former Mississippi State star Dak Prescott as a gauge for him, but that's not fair. Dobbs won't put up the kind of numbers the former Bulldog did during his final two seasons in Starkville, nor will he be asked to.
Dobbs has tons of offensive weaponry around him. He just needs to be the one who knows which triggers to pull at what time.
Goal 3: SEC Offensive Player of the Year
The last quarterback to win the league's Player of the Year award was Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel back in 2012. Dobbs may just break that streak this coming year.
If he does, he'll have to beat out a bunch of good players, but the league isn't as stacked with top-shelf stars as usual.
Athlon.com's Steven Lassan recently rated all of the projected starting quarterbacks in the country, and Dobbs ranked 12th on his list, trailing only Ole Miss' Chad Kelly in the SEC:
Dobbs is a better all-around offensive player than Kelly, though the Rebels star holds the upper hand in passing ability. If Dobbs can approach his ceiling in the passing game, he could overtake Kelly.
Then there's the tall task of overcoming the SEC's stable of star runners, led by LSU's Leonard Fournette, Georgia's Nick Chubb and Hurd.
Beyond that, though, there are few guaranteed stat hounds. Sure, several will emerge—they always do—but Dobbs is in the top group of playmakers. If he has a big year and, more importantly, the Vols are successful, he could carry home the hardware.
Everybody is enamored with a dual-threat quarterback on top of his game. Dobbs won't have to put together a Deshaun Watson-type season to win the award, but he has a skill set that is similar to the Clemson star's abilities. He just hasn't put everything together.
Goal 4: National champion quarterback
Finally, Dobbs' biggest goal is the ultimate team goal, but a selfless player would want it that way.
In the end, the Vols can't attain their wildest expectations without a dynamite finale by Dobbs. Make no mistake, this team is talented enough to win it all, as crazy as that may sound to some.
The biggest goal for Dobbs should be playing better against top-tier competition. Though he improved considerably in that regard in 2015, he's still never beaten Florida or Alabama. He'll have to go on the road to play Georgia, Texas A&M and South Carolina next year, too.
An early-season tilt at the Battle at Bristol against Virginia Tech will be a litmus test as well.
If Dobbs shows out in those games, the Vols will be in the SEC Championship Game. If they get there and win, the College Football Playoff could be close behind.
It's a leap to think a team can go from 9-4 to contending for a national title, but the Vols aren't that far away. They lost four games by a combined 17 points in '15, and Dobbs was mediocre in three of those contests. They held fourth-quarter leads in all but one game.
Elevating his play will lead to big wins in important games.
Dobbs has to get better against the best. If he does, Tennessee will find itself among the best at season's end.
All quotes and information gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information gathered from 247Sports unless otherwise noted. All individual stats gathered from UTSports.com and conference stats gathered from cfbstats.com unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee lead writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
