Predictions for the College Careers of the 2016 5-Star Recruits
Being a 5-star college football prospect doesn't guarantee they will have a successful career, though that's the expectation at the outset. Recruiting services don't arbitrarily hand out such lofty ratings, instead they're the result of detailed evaluations of those players' skills and meant to project what they're capable of at the college level.
The rest is up to the player, as well as the program they end up with, to turn promise into performance.
The 2016 recruiting class had 25 players that 247Sports' composite formula deemed were worthy of a 5-star rating, and 24 of those players have signed with FBS programs. Wide receiver Demetris Robinson, rated No. 14 overall and No. 1 at his position, remains undecided about his future.
For the other 24, we're going to take a stab at what lies ahead in their college careers. Check out our predictions for how every 2016 5-star recruit will fare over the next three to five years.
McTelvin Agim, DE, Arkansas
1 of 24
Height, weight: 6'2 ½”, 268 lbs
Ranking: 18th
With Trey Flowers anchoring the line, Arkansas had the No. 10 defense in the country in 2014. After he moved on, the Razorbacks dipped to 58th. McTelvin Agim will begin the rise back up the rankings this fall, first as a pass-rushing specialist and then moving into the starting lineup by November.
The top-rated player from Arkansas got to practice with the Hogs during bowl preparation, and through spring and summer workouts he'll have developed such a strong relationship with his coaches that he'll enter his freshman season with the experience of a sophomore. This maturity will continue to grow over the next two seasons, to where he's surpassing Flowers' impact by 2018.
Agim will probably look toward the NFL after his junior season, but if he stays for four years he'll top Flowers' career totals of 18 sacks and 47.5 tackles for loss.
Oluwole Betiku, DE, USC
2 of 24
Height, weight: 6'3 ½”, 240 lbs
Ranking: 16th
It's been a fast rise for Oluwole Betiku in his short time in the United States, the Nigerian native developing into one of the best edge-rushing prospects in the country thanks to former Penn State and NFL star Lavar Arrington's tutelage. That's gotten him to this point, but it will be how he continues to progress that ultimately determines how quickly Betiku can be a part of USC's defense.
Betiku's raw talent and physicality has helped him overcome a lack of experience, but that will slow him down during his freshman year, one where he will likely avoid a redshirt mostly because the Trojans are thin on the defensive line and at linebacker. His numbers in 2016 won't be great, but that time will pay off in future seasons.
The safe bet is to have Betiku on pace for a major role by his junior year, in 2018. It could result in a breakthrough performance that will make him a candidate to turn pro early, but he'll end up staying all four years and have a strong senior year.
Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
3 of 24
Height, weight: 6'4”, 265 lbs
Ranking: 8th
When asked about Nick Bosa on national signing day, Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said the younger brother of Joey Bosa is "a little ahead of his brother right now" (h/t Eleven Warriors) in terms of his ability as a freshman. However, Nick Bosa won't be able to match what Joey did as a first-year player.
That's because Nick Bosa is only a few months removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL suffered in November. He'll be cleared to participate in practice in the summer, but after being out of action for so long he'll take some time to get back up to speed. His progress during the preseason will be good, but ultimately the Buckeyes will opt to redshirt him.
By doing this, OSU helps spread out its array of defensive line prospects so that in 2017 he'll be in line to replace either Tyquan Lewis or Sam Hubbard when one or the other turns pro. And once he's in the starting lineup, Bosa won't leave until he's ready to head to the NFL either after the 2018 or 2019 season.
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Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
4 of 24
Height, weight: 6'3 ¾”, 317 lbs
Ranking: 9th
Auburn had the steal of signing day when it landed Derrick Brown over Alabama and Georgia. His signing ensures the Tigers will be stacked on the defensive line for another three or four years, and combined with the return of Montravius Adams and Carl Lawson will make for a formidable front this fall.
Brown also joins Byron Cowart, a 5-star defensive end from the 2015 class who didn't have a very strong first year. Cowart's performance will take a major leap as a sophomore thanks to Brown's presence in the middle next to Adams, with Brown eventually taking over the starting job that Dontavius Russell will have to begin.
The Tigers allowed 196.5 rushing yards per game last year against SEC foes, but Brown will help make for a large dip in that number. They'll remain one of the best in the league against the run throughout Brown's career, which will probably end in 2018 if he's able to maintain the progress he makes as a freshman.
Ben Davis, LB, Alabama
5 of 24
Height, weight: 6'3”, 240 lbs
Ranking: 10th
The players Alabama signs each year come in with lofty goals, many of which are the same from prospect to prospect. Ben Davis has one specific aspiration that stands out from the rest, that being to break father Wayne Davis' school career tackles record.
Wayne Davis had 327 tackles from 1983-86, a tally his son would be able to meet in three seasons at a lot of schools. But the Crimson Tide play so many guys that the defensive statistics don't pile up, with no player recording more than 108 tackles in any season during head coach Nick Saban's tenure, so it would take Ben Davis four years to get there.
He'll be around long enough to make this a possibility, though in his first season he'll have his hands full just getting onto the field on a regular basis. Instead, Davis will serve as a key reserve in 2016 and not start to become an impact player until his sophomore year, after which time he'll start to rack up the tackles (and sacks and tackles for losses) and keep Alabama's linebacker lineage going.
Jacob Eason, QB, Georgia
6 of 24
Height, weight: 6'5 ½”, 208 lbs
Ranking: 5th
Between the time Jacob Eason initially committed to Georgia and when he enrolled in January, his future school changed offensive coordinators twice and its head coach once. He remains just as important to the new regime as he was to the old guard, though, since the Bulldogs' passing offense was severely lacking the last two years.
Eason will be Georgia's starter for the 2016 opener against North Carolina in Atlanta, beating out Greyson Lambert and others during the spring and summer in a competition that's more a formality. New coach Kirby Smart will do everything he can to keep Eason in that role, continuing the dialogue he's started during the winter by trying to direct all pressure on himself.
"The pressure's not on Jacob, the pressure's on me," Smart told ESPN's Edward Aschoff.
The first year will have some bumps in the road, possibly involving a benching here or there, but by 2017 Eason will be playing like a seasoned veteran who's challenging school records. He'll spend four years in college, starting almost every game.
Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
7 of 24
Height, weight: 6'0”, 177 lbs
Ranking: 21st
In the ongoing debate between Florida and LSU over the unofficial title of “DBU,” LSU is hoping Kristian Fulton can help it get a leg up on the Gators and the rest of the SEC. And head coach Les Miles needs his secondary to produce (along with every other position group) to keep himself off the hot seat.
The Tigers tend to give their defensive back prospects a shot to contribute right away, with last year's top signee Kevin Tolliver II earning a starting job at cornerback, though Fulton's probably not headed for the same fate early on. He'll begin his career as Tre'Davious White's backup opposite Tolliver, also getting in for nickel formations, though as the season goes on Fulton will get more and more of the snaps.
In 2017, the Tolliver/Fulton combination will be among the best in the country, though LSU won't be as strong at safety and thus the overall pass defense numbers won't be particularly strong.
Over the course of his four seasons in Baton Rouge, Fulton will establish himself as a quality cover corner though he'll always be a notch or two below Tolliver.
Rashan Gary, DT, Michigan
8 of 24
Height, weight: 6'5”, 293 lbs
Ranking: 1st
The No. 1 overall recruit in 2016 ended up choosing the Wolverines over Clemson, where he would have paired up with No. 2 prospect Dexter Lawrence for a massive pair of interior linemen prospects. Instead, Gary will be the player Michigan builds around up front.
"He is two years ahead of almost any high school lineman in the country when it comes to college-level technique," Gary's trainer, Peter Kafaf, told Bleacher Report. "That technique builds off itself, so I expect him to be perfecting it during these next few seasons while other kids are just attempting to learn it."
That advanced understanding of his role will enable Gary to start Michigan's 2016 opener against Hawaii, the first of five consecutive home games during which he'll become more and more of a fan favorite. His ability to split double-teams and push the line forward in the middle will make opponents think twice about running up the gut.
By his sophomore year, Gary will start garnering some Heisman talk as the first non-offensive player with a legitimate shot to win the award in several years. That won't happen, but by the time his junior year is complete in 2018 Gary should be among the first 10 spots on most draft experts' big boards.
Mecole Hardman Jr., ATH, Georgia
9 of 24
Height, weight: 5'10”, 169 lbs
Ranking: 13th
The top-rated athlete in the 2016 class was a standout wide receiver and cornerback at the high school level, and each are possible for his role at Georgia. The same goes for being a return man, thanks to a skill set that can make Mecole Hardman Jr. a valuable weapon wherever the Bulldogs use him.
As a result, his first season will see Hardman getting tried out all over the field but without a clearly defined role. It also won't be as a starter, as he's not the type of player that would replace No. 1 receiver Malcolm Mitchell, while Georgia returns its starting secondary and still has Reggie Davis and Isaiah McKenzie handling returns.
Hardman's career arc figures to go the same route as Terry Godwin, the top-rated athlete in the 2015 class who started to show his mettle toward the end of that season. Godwin will take on a much bigger role this year, and Hardman will do the same as a sophomore.
By the time his career is over, Hardman will have created many highlights and various ways.
Benito Jones, DT, Ole Miss
10 of 24
Height, weight: 6'2”, 285 lbs
Ranking: 24th
Much like Gregory Little is to Laremy Tunsil and Shea Patterson (in another year) is to Chad Kelly, Benito Jones is considered the heir apparent to a star of Ole Miss' 2015 team. It just might take a little longer for him to rise to the level of Robert Nkemdiche than his fellow 5-star signees meet their expectations.
Jones enrolled early, which will give him some extra learning time during the spring and be in a position to contribute this fall. It probably won't be as a starter, though, since the Rebels return D.J. Jones and Breeland Speaks in the middle. That takes some pressure off the freshman to be an instant star like Nkemdiche was in 2013.
By his sophomore year, though, expect Jones to be a full-time participant on the line and carve out a solid career in Oxford. It might even be one that lasts a full four seasons, unless his development is such that in 2018 the NFL scouts are rating him as an early-round pick.
Jack Jones, CB, USC
11 of 24
Height, weight: 5'11”, 164 lbs
Ranking: 22nd
USC continues to bring in the best of the best from Long Beach's Poly High School, where recent signees Adoree' Jackson and Iman Marshall came from. His arrival will enable the Trojans to continue their transition of Jackson into an offensive player, though until Jones is ready to handle a full-time role in the secondary he'll remain a two-way player.
Jones will need to add some weight to be able to handle the rigors of dealing with the Pac-12's big receivers, and that will limit his use during the first half of 2016. By the end of his freshman season he'll be more involved, earning a start or two along the way.
The 2017 season will be when Jones gets his chance to take on more responsibilities, though still serving as the second act to Marshall on the other side of the field. Once Marshall turns pro after that year, the top job will go to Jones and he'll keep it for two seasons.
Mique Juarez, LB, UCLA
12 of 24
Height, weight: 6'1 ½”, 231 lbs
Ranking: 11th
Mique Juarez has already been compared to Anthony Barr and Myles Jack, two of the great linebackers that UCLA has produced in recent years. This kind of hype is on par with what Josh Rosen faced last season when he came to the Bruins already ordained as possibly the school's best quarterback ever.
Expect Juarez to forge a strong career in Westwood, but he's not going to be an instant superstar like Jack even though UCLA will try to feature him on offense from time to time. It will be on defense where he makes his mark, though, making some big plays that first season before emerging as a go-to defender in 2017.
He'll be the Bruins' next great every-down linebacker by 2018, though still not to the level of those before him. Instead, UCLA will have a solid producer who is as reliable as they come and one who sticks around for a full four seasons.
Caleb Kelly, LB, Oklahoma
13 of 24
Height, weight: 6'3 ¼”, 215 lbs
Ranking: 24th
Oklahoma's linebacker corps will have a completely different look in 2016 with the departure of Dominique Alexander, Frank Shannon and Eric Striker, which made getting Caleb Kelly out of California a big deal. More than any other player the Sooners signed this month, they'll need him to come in right away and make a difference.
The onus will fall on defensive coordinator Mike Stoops to have Kelly ready for such a significant role, though early on there will be some hiccups. Oklahoma faces Houston, Ohio State and TCU during the first month of the season, and Kelly will struggle at times against those tough opponents.
By the time his freshman year is over, tough, Kelly will be up to full speed and set for a huge 2017 campaign. A year later he'll be at Striker's level, making a possible jump to the NFL after that season seem likely.
Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
14 of 24
Height, weight: 6'4”, 327 lbs
Ranking: 2nd
Clemson has had six defensive players drafted since Brent Venables became its coordinator prior to the 2012 season, including a pair of first-round picks in 2015, and several more are going to have their names called this spring. These players ranged from 3- to 5-star prospects when they joined the Tigers, but regardless of their pedigree they've been developed into stars while in college.
Dexter Lawrence comes in with greater hype than any of those before him, though the process between his freshman year and when his Clemson career ends shouldn't be much different.
Christian Wilkins was a 5-star prospect heading into 2015 and saw action in all 15 games, though mostly as a backup. With others ahead of him on the depth chart, he was able to be eased into the rotation, setting things up to play a bigger role in 2016.
Clemson hasn't redshirted many defensive linemen in Venables' tenure, and Lawrence won't be one of them. He'll get meaningful snaps as a true freshmen and could start by the end of the year, but wait until 2017 or beyond before his full potential emerges.
Rashard Lawrence, DT, LSU
15 of 24
Height, weight: 6'3”, 305 lbs
Ranking: 23rd
Rashard Lawrence wasn't the only defensive lineman that LSU signed in the 2016 class, but he's the most significant of the group. He's also the one that will end up having the best career, just not one that includes a monster freshman year.
Much like how defensive end Arden Key worked his way into the rotation and eventually took over a starting spot, Lawrence will be able to get onto the field without having to be a full-time contributor. LSU's defense will be among its most veteran in years, thus lessening the need for Lawrence to do too much.
This gradual inclusion will linger into his sophomore year, during which Lawrence will move into the starting lineup and remain there for the rest of his career. He'll toy with leaving after his junior year, but the opportunity to continue developing under line coach Ed Orgeron will keep him in college through 2019. That move will pay off with a high draft slot after his senior season.
Gregory Little, OT, Ole Miss
16 of 24
Height, weight: 6'5 ½”, 305 lbs
Ranking: 3rd
Greg Little isn't just the highest-rated of Ole Miss' three 5-star signees, he's the one the Rebels will be most reliant on in 2016 as they look to build off a 10-win season but also overcome the loss of three potential first-round NFL draft picks. That includes one that Little will be directly responsible for replacing in left tackle Laremy Tunsil.
Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze has acknowledged that he expects Little to be able to come right in and start in Tunsil's old position, where he'll be starting on Labor Day against Florida State in Orlando. That will line him up against FSU senior DeMarcus Walker, who will give him a rude welcome to college but one that will help prepare him for the rest of the season.
Little will have some hiccups during his freshman year, but by the end of 2016 he'll be locked into his role and be keeping Chad Kelly's blind side well-protected. The same will be the case the following two years for Shea Patterson, putting him in line to be one of the top tackles drafted in 2018.
Isaac Nauta, TE, Georgia
17 of 24
Height, weight: 6'3 ¼”, 244 lbs
Ranking: 12th
Four tight ends combined to catch 28 passes for Georgia last season, with sophomore Jeb Blazevich hauling in the only touchdown from that position in 2015. Isaac Nauta is likely to top those numbers by himself as a freshman if he's able to beat out Blazevich for the starting job this summer.
Nauta is the Bulldogs' first legitimate weapon at that spot in years, and new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney will know just how to use him. He's been a tight end coach at the NFL level, and his last two jobs at the college level (Pittsburgh in 2015, Arkansas in 2013-14) saw him get a lot out of his tight ends. In those three seasons his big targets combined to catch 20 TDs.
A relationship will develop this year between Nauta and freshman quarterback Jacob Eason, one that will continue to grow over time. He won't be the passer's top target, but he'll certainly be one that is turned to in critical situations when a big catch is needed on third down, something Nauta will build his career around.
Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
18 of 24
Height, weight: 6'2”, 277 lbs
Ranking: 6th
The top recruits choose their schools based on a variety of reasons, among those are the chance to contribute right away. And with Ed Oliver making a rather historic pledge to a non-power program, the opportunity to be an instant starter had to be part of the decision-making process.
"When a top-10 prospect commits anywhere, there's a good chance he could start in his true freshman season," Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson wrote. "When that top-10 prospect chooses a "Group of Five" school like Ed Oliver did with Houston, those chances increase exponentially."
Oliver will be trying to bust through Oklahoma's offensive line on Sept. 3 when the Cougars face the Sooners in Houston. As the year goes on, he'll be destroying backfields all over the American Athletic Conference as the Cougars rank among the top teams in FBS in run defense, challenging for a playoff spot in the process.
That big 2016 for Oliver and Houston will lead to the inevitable, that being coach Tom Herman jumping to a bigger program. Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will go with him, but Oliver won't be able to do the same. He'll be left to keep things going, and though his career will be a solid one he may struggle to match the impact he made the first season.
Shea Patterson, QB, Ole Miss
19 of 24
Height, weight: 6'1 ½”, 192 lbs
Ranking: 4th
Before Josh Rosen started all 13 games last season for UCLA, the nation's top-rated pro-style quarterback recruit had been a bit of a crapshoot. You have to go back to 2009 to find another who started right away, that being USC's Matt Barkley, while in 2014 Kyle Allen took over the starting job at Texas A&M midway through the season.
In between, though, were the likes of Phillip Sims (Alabama), Christian LeMay (Georgia), Gunner Kiel (Notre Dame) and Max Browne (USC). Kiel didn't play until 2014, with Cincinnati, while Browne is hoping to win the starting job this fall after backing up Cody Kessler the last two years.
This is a roundabout way of saying not to expect much from Shea Patterson this fall, though in his case this is more due to his situation than his ability. Chad Kelly is firmly in place as Ole Miss' starter for 2016, though the departure of backups Ryan Buchanan and DeVante Kincade this offseason means Patterson is almost assured of being Kelly's backup.
Patterson will get into some games this season, but barring an injury to Kelly his time won't be plentiful. Save that for 2017, when he'll be named starter during the spring and then spend at least two years in that role before deciding whether to turn pro after his junior season, one that could include a Heisman campaign.
Miles Sanders, RB, Penn State
20 of 24
Height, weight: 5'11”, 199 lbs
Ranking: 20th
Miles Sanders was the top-ranked running back in the 2016 class, and had he picked a different school we'd be projecting the potential 1,000-yard season as a freshman. But he committed to Penn State in July 2014, and last season the Nittany Lions had arguably the best freshman rusher in the country in Saquon Barkley.
This means Penn State can go two ways this fall: become even more of a run-based offense as it moves from Christian Hackenberg to a new quarterback, thus allowing Barkley and Sanders to create a dynamic backfield duo, or let Barkley maintain his role as the primary back while giving Sanders enough touches to allow him to grow.
James Franklin will go the latter route, with Sanders getting five to 10 carries per game (compared to 20-plus for Sanders). In 2017 a greater balance will come about between the two rushers, though Barkley will again be the featured attraction.
It won't be until 2018, at the earliest, that Sanders is able to take on a big role in the Lions offense. By then his window of being a superstar will have passed but he'll still produce good numbers in those final two seasons.
Jeffery Simmons, DE, Mississippi State
21 of 24
Height, weight: 6'3 ½”, 277 lbs
Ranking: 19th
Jeffrey Simmons' choice of Mississippi State over Ole Miss gave the Bulldogs' 2016 class a major boost, though it will be a while before that signing produces significant on-field results.
MSU returns Johnathan Calvin and A.J. Jefferson for their senior years, which means Simmons won't need to be thrown into the fire. Instead, MSU can play him here and there to get him settled and possibly turn him into a third-down specialist as a freshman. This experience will get him prepared for taking over a starting job in 2017.
Simmons' sophomore year will be a good one, but his junior year will be better. Not so great, though, that he'll be tempted to leave for the NFL, resulting in a strong senior campaign that's the best of his career.
Levonta Taylor, CB, Florida State
22 of 24
Height, weight: 5'11”, 182 lbs
Ranking: 7th
The seventh 5-star defensive back that Florida State has signed since 2010, per Bleacher Report's Brian Leigh, Levonta Taylor heads to Tallahassee with high expectations and a lot to prove. He'll show what he's capable of as a freshman, though the full impact won't be felt until 2017 or beyond.
The Seminoles have an opening at cornerback, but sophomore Tarvarus McFadden has the edge there. He could end up playing the Star, but more likely will serve as a key reserve who sees a lot of time in nickel and dime packages. Taylor also will get some looks as a punt returner, scoring at least once as a freshman.
Come his sophomore year, though, Taylor will begin to move in the direction of the recently departed Jalen Ramsey and other past FSU star DBs. He could even get a sniff or two on offense if head coach Jimbo Fisher wants to get creative.
Combined with McFadden and Derwin James, FSU's 2017 secondary will be the best in the country. It will dip a bit the following year, though not to where Taylor won't get consideration for a high draft slot after his junior season.
Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
23 of 24
Height, weight: 6'5”, 296 lbs
Ranking: 17th
Jonah Williams was the No. 2 offensive tackle in the 2016 recruiting class and one of eight signees who enrolled back in January. And what is that going to get him this season? Most likely, a spot on the scout team and a redshirt.
Of the 15 offensive linemen that were listed on the Crimson Tide's depth chart for the national championship game, 12 of them are back for 2016. Right tackle Dominick Jackson graduated, but Williams has a lot of highly regarded prospects to jump over to get snaps at that position as a true freshman, let alone be a starter.
Alabama's 2014 class included Cam Robinson and Ross Pierschbacher, who anchored the left side of the offensive line this past season. Robinson started as a true freshman, the first to do so at the school since 2006, while Pierschbacher redshirted and was moved to guard.
Williams will fall somewhere in between those two, with a chance to be a starter at tackle in 2017 or 2018.
Lyndell "Mack" Wilson, LB, Alabama
24 of 24
Height, weight: 6'2”, 220 lbs
Ranking: 15th
Just like Alabama's other 5-star linebacker signee, Ben Davis, Lyndell Wilson was a highly sought-after prospect who might have been the player to build a defense around had he chosen Florida or Georgia. Instead, he picked the Crimson Tide for its history of producing NFL talent at the position and for its winning tradition.
And just like Davis, he knows that means that playing time will need to be earned and won't come easily. This will make it so Wilson won't get much action in his first season, though when he's on the field he'll probably still be better than most of his opponents' players.
Wilson will become more involved in 2017 and even more so the following season, and by the time he's a senior his career will be getting compared to those of the players he's going to back up this fall.
Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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