FSU vs. USF: Growth Spurts and Grothe Pains

This Saturday was supposed to be a lose-lose for Florida State. That was the hope of Bulls fans when former FSU athletic director Dave Hart began talks with South Florida toward scheduling a home-and-home series late into the 2008 season.

This Saturday was supposed to be the day, the defining moment when South Florida arrived, and showed the College Football world that it was a member of the Big-Three.

This Saturday was supposed to feature an FSU team wearing all-white for the first time, to a sold out crowd, in willful anticipation of the guys from Tampa. 

Well, I suppose the last one is still something to be excited about. 

If you haven't yet heard the news, Matt Grothe suffered a season ending ACL tear in the lopsided win against FCS opponent Charleston Southern. With the score 21-0, and USF making a big stop on Defense, Grothe suffered a sprained shoulder, and was probably not in a position to go back in, but in he went, and now he is paying for it.

So are the fans of the Bulls, and even the Seminoles. 

Nobody wants to play against a backup QB.

Granted, with USF's backup beat up Charleston Southern, and there is reason for optimism, but only if you're a USF fan. This is just another of the many lose-lose scenarios for FSU in this match-up. If USF's QB can live up to his billing, USF fans will be vindicated, and the weeks and months of taunting will ensue. If he doesn't, then FSU fans will have to hear from the Bull-faithful a miltitude of hemming and hawing about how FSU only managed to beat a rookie, and that's not very hard to do. The truth is, for USF, putting up 50 points last week—while impressive, is not too difficult against an FCS opponent. Try doing it against a top ten team.

FSU did, just last week. 

As a Tampa native, it has been my profound impression that USF fans, much like Boston Red Sox fans, have in recent years embraced their new identity as a winner, and winning comes at a price. Inflated beliefs of winning consistently, begins to cloud the judgment of a winner. Winning teams' fans believe they can't lose. Believe me, after 14 straight years of hardly doing just that, following the 2001 season, FSU fans realized their team was no different than any other. 

USF only needed one play. With Matt Grothe going down, they must now place their hopes and dreams of a winning season in the hands of true freshman—B.J. Daniels. 

This kid has talent, sure, but this is Tallahassee, in the fall, and FSU is poised to put together a run that could put them back among the best in the ACC.

How USF Can Win:

USF boasts a defense anchored by senior defensive end George Selvie. Keep the D-Line coming early and often, and Ponder too, could find himself straining on a gimpy leg. 

FSU has one of the best aerial attacks in College Football in the early going, and keeping Ponder flushed from the pocket can lead to field position battles, and take-aways from an offense that has only allowed three sacks, one interception, and has averaged 36 points a game through it's first three contests. 

It is worth reminding those of you out there reading, the last time FSU lost when scoring 36 points (or more,) was in 1984. 

USF must get turnovers and keep their young QB on the field. Allowing FSU's ground attack and pass attack to flourish will only lead to a run away against USF.

How FSU Can Win: 

Show up. Period. No swagger, no nonsense, no hangovers.

If FSU plays like the Seminoles of last week and not the Seminoles from the week prior, they can control their destiny in time of possession and scoring.

The last consideration of course, is a healthy Christian Ponder.

Odds are, FSU's offense will be ready, and FSU's defensive interior has come a long way since week-one. Weakness at defensive end due to injury may force FSU to play some younger guys, but with USF's struggling offensive line, the matchups should be pretty balanced. 

In the end, much like my earlier prediction, USF is not ready for the Big-Three just yet. Miami is looking like a contender, and FSU is already focusing on getting to Tampa to meet up with Jacory and Co. for a rematch. The last thing FSU would want is a bunch of USF fans in the stands chanting "over-rated."

Fortunately for USF, win or lose, they do get another crack in Tampa against FSU next season. If the past is any indication of what USF can do, Jim Leavitt will have his guys primed for this year's matchup, and I'm sure next year is already on the minds of many USF fans.

How many times a week do I hear this from a USF fan you ask? At least a couple. 

Still, I'm sticking with my prediction, at least for this year's game.

FSU: 45, USF: 24.