Auburn Football: 5 Reasons the Tigers Should Be Optimistic About 2016
At first glance, there might not be a lot to be overly optimistic about for the 2016 Auburn Tigers.
The Tigers will be coming off a highly disappointing 7-6 campaign that started with championship hype. They'll be on their fifth defensive coordinator in six years. The quarterback situation doesn't have a clear answer, and Auburn will have to reload at several position groups.
This combination of factors and question marks put Auburn at No. 9 in Bleacher Report lead SEC writer Barrett Sallee's way-too-early power rankings for the conference.
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But this is Auburn, a program that doesn't quite stick to preseason expectations. The Tigers' best seasons in the last couple of decades all came when they didn't open the year inside the Top 20.
Auburn still has plenty of talent and resources needed for a successful season—it's just a matter of it all coming together for Gus Malzahn and his roster. Here are five reasons why Tigers fans can be hopeful that will happen in 2016.
The return of Carl Lawson
Auburn wasn't able to retain what it hoped would be the architect of a strong defense, but its biggest difference-maker is staying put for 2016.
A few weeks after one-year defensive coordinator Will Muschamp was officially announced as South Carolina's head coach, Auburn defensive end Carl Lawson announced he would not enter the 2016 NFL draft in a Wolf of Wall Street-inspired tweet:
Lawson's father confirmed the news to Brandon Marcello of AL.com and gave some insight on why his son was staying at Auburn:
"He does love Auburn and he wants to get his degree, which he's close to doing. He feels like he personally set some goals for himself when he came, he hasn't accomplished them yet and he wants to get that done. He just figures he hasn't played his best football and he certainly wants to win a national championship ring. There's a lot of things he wants to do and show he can come back and get better.
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While Lawson is just one player, he has been crucial to Auburn's defensive success since he enrolled prior to the 2013 season.
The pass-rush specialist missed virtually one half of the 2015 season—the second half of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic against Louisville and the next six games—because of a hip injury.
When Lawson returned, Auburn's defensive numbers improved.
| Total YPP | 4.85 | 5.91 |
| Passing YPG | 206.57 | 244.67 |
| Rushing YPG | 173.14 | 232.20 |
| PPG | 22.00 | 27.67 |
| Sacks | 12 | 7 |
| TFL | 30 | 23 |
If Byron Cowart can develop into a force alongside tackles Montravius Adams and Dontavius Russell, Lawson should lead a fierce Auburn defensive line into 2016. A consistent pass rush has been Auburn's biggest defensive weakness these last two seasons, and that lineup should be able to get great pressure.
A deep group of experienced running backs
It's no secret Malzahn's offense works at its absolute best with a dual-threat quarterback.
And with Auburn picking up two such signal-callers in this year's recruiting class—JUCO transfer John Franklin III and incoming freshman Woody Barrett—a move back to the run-heavy system of offense could be in store for 2016.
That would be the best move for Malzahn, whose play-calling received plenty of deserved criticism in 2015. His roster has a giant question mark at quarterback, an underdeveloped group of wide receivers and a stacked running back depth chart.
Peyton Barber, Jovon Robinson, Roc Thomas and Kerryon Johnson are all set to return this fall, and they each averaged at least four yards per carry in 2015.
| Peyton Barber | 237 | 1,016 | 4.29 | 13 |
| Jovon Robinson | 117 | 639 | 5.46 | 3 |
| Roc Thomas | 43 | 261 | 6.07 | 1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 52 | 208 | 4.00 | 3 |
Barber kept the Auburn offense from completely sinking during Jeremy Johnson's early struggles, and Robinson was getting nearly six yards a touch at the end of the season.
(In another confusing decision from the coaching staff, Robinson would disappear at times in close games. That also has to change.)
Thomas and Johnson both have the explosiveness to become even better big-play weapons in the running and the passing games.
If Auburn goes back to the Wing T-style offense that tormented the SEC in the days of Cam Newton and Nick Marshall, the starting quarterback will be able to rely on four established rushers.
With a running quarterback alongside them, these skilled backs would present a lot of challenges for any defense.
Malzahn's reunion with Herb Hand
Malzahn's latest addition to his coaching staff following J.B. Grimes' departure to Cincinnati was met with concerns from some fans.
But don't let Penn State's offensive line performance this season fool you. Herb Hand is potentially the best hire Malzahn has made in his Auburn career.
The former Penn State offensive line coach was the quick front-runner to replace Grimes as soon as the job became available, and Malzahn wasted no time signing on his close friend and former co-worker.
Malzahn and Hand were co-offensive coordinators at Tulsa in 2007 and 2008. As football writer Chris B. Brown noted in a Grantland story from 2014, Hand introduced zone-read rushing concepts to Malzahn and created the nation's most potent offense:
"Tulsa led the country in total offense in both of Malzahn’s two seasons, sporting a slightly different style each time: In 2007, Tulsa finished third in the nation in passing offense, as quarterback Paul Smith threw for more than 5,000 yards and 47 touchdowns. The next season, Tulsa finished fifth in rushing, as Malzahn merged his wing-T-infused run game with the zone-read ideas Hand brought from West Virginia, where he’d coached under Rich Rodriguez.
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Now, after one of Malzahn's worst offensive seasons as a college coach, he's reuniting with the man who helped him build a No. 1 offense.
While Hand's offensive lines at Penn State ranked 113th and 124th nationally in sacks allowed, keep in mind he was dealing with a roster that had been crippled by NCAA sanctions.
According to Marcello, Hand had to bring two players over from defense to help build a depth chart with the Nittany Lions:
Auburn doesn't have depth issues on the offensive line, as Grimes built one of the best units in the entire SEC during his three seasons with the program. Hand will have to replace NFL-bound tackles Shon Coleman and Avery Young, but he won't have to do it with defensive players.
From a total offensive perspective, Hand is a great hire for Auburn. He could be the key in helping Malzahn find that play-calling magic that made the Tigers so fearsome in 2013 and 2014.
Strong recruiting finish in store
With less than three full weeks to go until national signing day, Auburn is in a great position to close out the year with another top-10 recruiting class.
The Tigers are currently No. 10 in 247Sports' Composite Team Rankings, which combine scores from the major recruiting outlets.
There's still great room for improvement between now and the beginning of February, too, as Auburn is tied for the second-fewest commitments among Top 10 teams.
Auburn currently has 17 pledges and has five blue-chip players listed as "top targets" in 247Sports' database.
Those targets include No. 8 overall player Derrick Brown, a defensive tackle, and former wide receiver commitment Nate Craig-Myers—the No. 3 player at his position.
The way the Tigers are succeeding on the recruiting trail despite a lackluster 7-6 season has to be encouraging for Malzahn and his new-look staff.
Some of his newest assistants, such as defensive coordinator Kevin Steele and defensive backs coach Wesley McGriff, have plenty of experience at getting highly ranked recruiting classes.
McGriff played a major role in helping Ole Miss land its star-studded 2013 recruiting class, one that featured Robert Nkemdiche and Laquon Treadwell.
"McGriff could have a domino impact on those players because it’s players that Auburn have gotten late interest from and he’s able to tell them that he knows how to get talent to the NFL, which is where every player wants to be," Jason Caldwell of Scout told Matthew Stevens of the Montgomery Advertiser.
If Auburn can add a few more instant-impact players in the 2016 class, the Tigers should have a much brighter outlook for the fall.
Five home games to start the season
An even-numbered year means only one thing for Auburn: the all-road "Amen Corner" duo.
Auburn will have to face its two biggest rivals, Georgia and Alabama, away from home in 2016. The Tigers lost both legs of the road series in 2014, the first time the SEC schedule had changed to the new format.
However, while the 2016 schedule looks brutal for Auburn, there is one big positive.
Auburn will start 2016 with five straight home games, opening with defending national runner-up Clemson on September 3 and concluding with an October 1 meeting with Louisiana-Monroe.
| Sept. 3 | Clemson | Auburn |
| Sept. 10 | Arkansas State | Auburn |
| Sept. 17 | Texas A&M | Auburn |
| Sept. 24 | LSU | Auburn |
| Oct. 1 | UL-Monroe | Auburn |
| Oct. 8 | Mississippi State | Starkville, Mississippi |
| Oct. 22 | Arkansas | Auburn |
| Oct. 29 | Ole Miss | Oxford, Mississippi |
| Nov. 5 | Vanderbilt | Auburn |
| Nov. 12 | Georgia | Athens, Georgia |
| Nov. 19 | Alabama A&M | Auburn |
| Nov. 26 | Alabama | Tuscaloosa, Alabama |
The season opener will undoubtedly be a huge challenge for Auburn, as Clemson will return Heisman finalist Deshaun Watson and several other star players from a team that took Alabama to the brink in the national championship game.
However, the five-game home stand to open the year is a great place for Auburn to build momentum in what is sure to be a make-or-break season for Malzahn and his staff.
Being able to rely on a loud home-field advantage at Jordan-Hare Stadium for games against LSU and Texas A&M can be a real difference-maker.
Momentum is everything in college football, and if Auburn can get off to a strong start in 2016 with several home wins in a row, then the Tigers should be in much better shape when they hit the tough road games in the back half of the slate.
With just four true road games on the 2016 schedule, the odds might not be as highly stacked against Auburn as they seem. The first five contests will be a good opportunity to set the tone for a bounce-back campaign.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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