NFL Playoff Preview 2016: Looking Ahead to the Divisional Round
The first round of the 2016 NFL playoffs wrapped up Sunday evening, and what a weekend it was. Two of this season's most dramatic games were from the Wild Card Round. Now the attention shifts as the top seeds know who they’ll be hosting this weekend.
The NFC showed its depth as the Seattle Seahawks escaped from Minnesota with a one-point victory over the Vikings, and the Green Bay Packers defeated the Redskins in Washington. Their next opponents will be the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals, respectively.
On the other side of the bracket, the AFC is struggling. Injuries and inconsistent quarterback play are not usually in the recipe for a Super Bowl contender, but every team except Kansas City—Denver, New England and Pittsburgh—limped into the playoffs. That could mean a highly entertaining set of games is coming in the divisional round.
Let’s preview the second round of the NFL playoffs and try to make some sense of a zany Wild Card Weekend. Make sure you leave your divisional round predictions in the comments section.
AFC Playoff Seeding
1 of 6AFC No. 1 Seed: Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos decided to start Peyton Manning at quarterback in the divisional round, a risky but high-upside move. Benching Brock Osweiler was justified as the inexperienced quarterback simply couldn’t jump-start the offense like the team had hoped. Starting Manning may be a last-ditch effort to win with the aging signal-caller.
The move makes sense, though. Manning will be playing at home, and he’s familiar with his surrounding cast. He hasn’t been the same player we remember from a few seasons ago, but hoping future Hall of Fame QB Manning can put together a few good games in a row through the Super Bowl is a safer bet than one on Osweiler.
If Denver’s defense can refocus and become the lockdown unit it has shown to be for stretches of 2015, the Broncos should be the favorite to make the Super Bowl. The offense needs to do just enough to keep the defense fresh and effective. A Manning-led offense is expected to do as much.
AFC No. 2 Seed: New England Patriots
A rash of injuries have dramatically altered the identity of the Patriots offense. With the team coming off a much-needed bye week, all eyes will be on New England to see if the rest helped. The Patriots won’t have an easy path to the Super Bowl, and they’re running into a buzz saw in Kansas City this week.
It seemed New England was working on specific strategies in Week 17 against Miami. It lost the game, but the run-heavy approach allowed Steven Jackson to work his way back into football shape. His presence is needed to help take some pressure off Tom Brady and the passing game.
The strength of this team right now is its talented defensive front seven. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has done a masterful job adjusting his scheme to the change in available talent from 2014 to 2015. This unit is fast, physical and opportunistic. Expect the defense to be what helps carry this team through the playoffs.
AFC No. 5 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs dismantled the weakest team in the playoffs 30-0 this past round. While the Houston Texans never had a realistic chance once Brian Hoyer began throwing interceptions, Kansas City’s a tough code to crack with its top-notch talent and coaching.
Nobody has been playing more impressively than the Chiefs. The offense has complemented its terrific defense, unlike in past years. With a more competent offensive attack, the Chiefs are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Quarterback Alex Smith deserves credit for his evolution as a passer. Players don’t usually change in their 11th season, but he became more willing to take downfield chances in 2015. That was a much-needed adjustment from years past for this team.
AFC No. 6 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh’s win in Cincinnati can be characterized in many ways, including as borderline dirty. The Steelers' physical approach and willingness to push the envelope worked as they baited the Bengals into several costly penalties. If Ben Roethlisberger can fully participate in the divisional round, they are a serious upset candidate.
Winning on the road is difficult, but this is an experienced team from the top of the roster to the bottom. While Pittsburgh’s defense has been easy to move the ball on, ranking 21st in yards allowed, it's come through in the red zone. This defense has given up fewer than 20 points per game.
Pittsburgh hasn’t lived up to its enormous offensive potential in the last three games, but maybe another 30-point game—which favors its talent and style—is coming.
NFC Playoff Seeding
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NFC No. 1 Seed: Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers have been rolling through their competition all season, but their last two months have been the most impressive. In their last nine games, they’re 8-1 with an average of 34 points per game. For a team supposedly lacking playmakers on offense, the Panthers score a lot of points.
Carolina’s offensive balance and the great play of Cam Newton have led to a tremendous season to this point. But expectations are high after finishing 15-1. Owning home-field advantage should keep this team relaxed but focused in its abilities.
The playoffs tend to magnify weaknesses as the quality of opponents rises to the very best. Carolina faced the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, which creates doubt about its 15-1 record. The Panthers will be looking to prove their regular season wasn’t a fluke.
NFC No. 2 Seed: Arizona Cardinals
Arizona was able to turn in a fantastic regular season to finish 13-3. This team is loaded with playmakers on each side of the ball. Unlike anyone else left in the NFC bracket, Arizona's offense is a true powerhouse that challenges defenses.
Outside of a Week 17 blowout against Seattle, the Cardinals were the most impressive team in the league. The emergence of rookie running back David Johnson helped complement a terrific passing attack led by MVP candidate Carson Palmer. That's too many weapons to slow down for most teams.
The Cardinals defense is impressive as well, although there are more concerns on that side of the ball. The loss of Tyrann Mathieu is big for this opportunistic unit. It could stretch the defense too thin and force it to stress the secondary too much on blitzes.
NFC No. 5 Seed: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay looked like a different team in the Wild Card Round. The Packers played the weakest team in the NFC bracket, the Washington Redskins, but it was a quality road blowout. The Packers offense had its way moving the ball up and down the field for 346 total yards and 35 points.
The somewhat ironic part of this team is how it's played compared to years past. Green Bay hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut this season like recent history, instead relying on a quality defense to keep games close. It used to be the Packers defense faltering in key moments.
The Packers’ talented and deep secondary is largely to thank. The personnel overhaul worked instantly, and the injected youth played well from the get-go. The competition is about to ramp up as they move on.
NFC No. 6 Seed: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are one of the more interesting teams left in the playoffs. They went through an offensive-explosion late in the season but clearly have a weakness. This team does not do well against high-end defenses with a great pass rush.
Both the St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings stifled this offense in at least one game this season. Minnesota probably should have pulled out the Wild Card win, but the Seahawks got a needed break to win by one point after the Vikings missed 27-yard field goal will less than 30 seconds left in the game. Now they’ll play another physical defense with a pass rush.
AFC Divisional Matchups
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
The Pittsburgh Steelers escaped from Cincinnati with a two-point victory. Pittsburgh played a physical game, egging the Bengals to cross the line and make a mistake. The Bengals took the bait and handed the Steelers the game after two 15-yard penalties on the final drive.
That road victory leads Pittsburgh to Denver to face the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Steelers had to beat the Bengals with a battered Ben Roethlisberger and without DeAngelo Williams to carry the rock. Overcoming the talented Broncos defense without those two being healthy may be their biggest obstacle all season.
The good news for Pittsburgh is Williams should be able to play, per Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Roethlisberger will surely play based on his history of playing through pain. Pittsburgh needs a reasonably healthy version of Roethlisberger to compete, and Landry Jones simply cannot see the field.
For Denver, this game boils down to ball control and efficiency. In their Week 15 matchup, the Steelers were able to turn the game into a shootout, which favors their style. Denver’s defense is good enough to bounce back from allowing 34 points in their previous meeting, but it’s the offense that can turn the tide.
Peyton Manning must be more efficient than Osweiler was against Pittsburgh. Osweiler was just 21-of-44. He did compile 296 yards and three touchdowns, but being so pass-heavy cost Denver from extending drives and milking the clock. Manning’s overall talent is trending downward, but he should be able to take advantage of this bend-don’t-break defense.
Even if Roethlisberger and Williams play close to their full capacity, Denver didn’t become the No. 1 seed by accident. This defense will be ready, and Manning will be as motivated as ever to prove he’s still capable of winning big games. I’ll pick Denver to win this game 27-24 in another physical showdown.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Is it possible the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the AFC? Absolutely, and they are on an 11-game winning streak because this is a well-rounded team. After drubbing Houston 30-0, the Chiefs travel to New England to play the Patriots.
Kansas City’s ability to stifle the opposing offense is second to none in the NFL. This defense has allowed an average of 11.6 points per game throughout the Chiefs' winning streak. Although paired with a conservative and more modest offense, this defense creates favorable situations for the offense to convert scoring drives.
The Chiefs avoided a disaster as wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was ruled to have just a sprained ankle after going down with what initially looked like a serious knee injury during Saturday's game. Per ESPN, the Chiefs said he’s day-to-day and should be ready to play Saturday afternoon. Maclin and quarterback Alex Smith have been instrumental to this efficient yet effective attack.
The Patriots must prove to be healthy to win this matchup. They backed into the playoffs with two consecutive losses and slipped to the second overall seed. A major reason is their lengthy injury list.
New England was the most injured NFL team this season, and one week off is unlikely to meaningfully change who this team is right now. The Patriots’ transition from a high-powered team to a ball-controlling, defense-first squad sets this game up as a potential nail-biter. Neither team will be swinging haymakers often. They don't have the firepower.
The Patriots offense desperately needs Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman to play well. Kansas City is able to use a deep secondary to create matchups; safety Eric Berry and cornerbacks Sean Smith and Marcus Peters are excellent playmakers who can be used like chess pieces.
This will be a defensive struggle where points are at a premium. Since the Tom Brady era began in New England, he's won 113 of 133 home contests, per The Football Database. Because of that, I’m picking New England to win 17-16.
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NFC Divisional Matchups
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Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
The stock on Seattle is probably at an all-time low right now, considering how they won in Minnesota. The 10-9 victory was aided by two massive gaffes by the Vikings, including a field goal off a turnover and a missed field goal that could have won the game. The Seahawks know that it takes an element of good fortune to win a Super Bowl.
Surely they won’t worry about the way in which they won, but we will. For the second time in three weeks, a physical defense with great pass-rushers gave this offense all it could handle. This wouldn’t be as big of an issue if Seattle were facing one of the other two NFC teams, but it's facing a terrific defense in Carolina.
For Seattle to be effective, Marshawn Lynch has to be near 100 percent. His absence was more obvious against the Vikings than may have been anticipated. As well as Russell Wilson has played, he can’t be asked to carry such a burden once again Saturday.
The Panthers should be looking for revenge in this game. Seattle defeated Carolina 31-17 at home last year in the divisional round of the playoffs. These teams have undergone some incredible experiences since that matchup.
Carolina is intriguing because of the poor competition it's faced in 2015. The Panthers don’t need more motivation to prove doubters wrong, but we haven’t seen Carolina play a tough stretch of intense games.
This should be a close game from start to finish. Carolina feels like it could be a special team. But Seattle is experienced, and a healthy Lynch changes this offense. I’ll take Seattle to advance to the NFC Championship Game with a 24-17 win.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
The question surrounding the Packers must be whether they can sustain their Wild Card Round level of play. Beating Washington wasn’t impressive, but this looked like the more dominant version of Green Bay that we haven’t seen since the first six games of the season. If the team cannot play at that high level, it’s doubtful Green Bay can beat Arizona.
Aaron Rodgers looked more comfortable with his receivers against Washington. The Redskins play a lot of zone coverage, which fits their talent but is bad when playing Rodgers. Arizona doesn’t need to play zone with its personnel.
Arizona destroyed Green Bay in Week 16, 38-8 at home. This is a direct rematch of that game. While it’s hard to replicate that type of dominance, the Cardinals are not a good matchup for the Packers.
With the way Carson Palmer and the Cardinals offense have played this year, they quickly open the game up and apply pressure on the opposition to rack up points. The Packers cannot survive that type of game with Arizona, as we saw a few weeks ago.
The Packers have a chance to win this game if they can establish the running game and also limit the Cardinals’ big plays. The level of competition greatly jumps from Washington to Arizona, so I’m throwing that result out when projecting this game. I’ll take Arizona to win, 31-21.
Injury Notes
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AFC
- Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger left the Wild Card Game late in the third quarter with a right shoulder injury. He returned to help Pittsburgh win. The Steelers are optimistic he will play this week, per ESPN. For the Steelers to have any chance to win, they need Big Ben to play and be effective.
- Steelers star receiver Antonio Brown sustained a concussion on a cheap shot from Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict. Brown must be evaluated via the NFL’s concussion protocol, per ESPN's Scott T. Miller. Losing Brown for Sunday's game would be back-breaking for Pittsburgh. He’s in a class of his own as a playmaker, and the Broncos’ deep secondary will feast if Brown is out.
- DeAngelo Williams is another Steelers playmaker coming off injury. He was inactive last week, and Pittsburgh got marginal production from his replacements. Williams is expected to play this week, per Dulac. Getting Williams back is huge for Pittsburgh. While Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman were decent for their roles, Williams is a legitimate starter. The Steelers cannot afford to be pass-heavy against Denver, and Williams allows them to be balanced.
- Kansas City Chiefs leading receiver Jeremy Maclin only sprained his ankle against Houston (per ESPN's Adam Schefter), despite fears of something much worse. His status is unknown for the Chiefs’ game in New England next Sunday. The Chiefs desperately need Maclin to be a legitimate threat. Points will come sparingly against New England, and Maclin is by far their best offensive weapon. Even if he can draw cornerback Malcolm Butler every play, the Chiefs would be happy to see that predictability.
NFC
- The Green Bay Packers could be without another receiver this week. Davante Adams left the Wild Card Game against Washington with a right knee injury, and his status is unknown. While Adams hasn’t played well this season, he was able to tally 48 yards and a touchdown on four receptions against Washington.
- Green Bay left tackle David Bakhtiari’s status for next week is also unknown. He has a left ankle sprain to return from, but he has been out since Week 16. He’s absolutely needed if he can play at all against a talented Cardinals pass rush.
Odds and Ends
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- The road teams went 4-0 in the Wild Card Round. This is incredible, as Vegas had all four teams favored entering this week. It is the first time that all road teams won in this round, per the NU's Law Murray (h/t Chris Wesseling). How this projects moving forward is unknown, but it shows the depth of quality teams. Home-field advantage meant nothing, but the stronger teams put away the Round 1 winners. The road success will end for at least one team this week.
- All four road teams had a quarterback with playoff experience. Each of them won, and the quarterbacks with zero playoff experience ended up losing. The second part of the NFL season is a new challenge at one point for all players, but it shows experience matters.
- Green Bay scored 35 points for the first time since Week 3. It’s not a coincidence that it also allowed just one sack, although it did go for a safety. This offense must protect Rodgers at least as well against Arizona to have a chance to win.
- Chiefs safety Eric Berry beat cancer to come back and help his team reach the divisional round of the playoffs. He’s been a terrific player all season at one of the most difficult positions in which to excel. Whether a Chiefs fan or not, Berry’s an easy person to root for.
- The key player for Pittsburgh’s defense is linebacker Ryan Shazier, who laid a borderline illegal hit on running back Giovani Bernard, which led to Bernard leaving the game. No flag was called, and it allowed Pittsburgh to set the tone of the game. Shazier dominated, totaling 13 tackles, two tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. This defense absolutely needs Shazier to be a star to rise to a Super Bowl-sized challenge.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats used are from sports-reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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