Alabama vs. Clemson: Preview, Prediction for 2016 College Football Championship

So, as it turns out, having the College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year’s Eve isn’t actually a great idea. Terrible ratings aside, though, the worst thing about the Orange and Cotton Bowls was that they were, to put it simply, boring.

Both Alabama and Clemson were clearly the better teams in their respective matchups, and there was little doubt by the end of the game that the committee had named gotten the No. 1 and No. 2 teams correct, even if Ohio State and Stanford fans scream until they turn blue.

But where there were bad semifinals, there is the chance at an epic clash in the national championship. With an established dynasty facing off against a team that has been on the fringe of the title picture without actually throwing its hat into the ring until this season, this could be a clash for the ages.

With two Heisman finalists—including the winner—in Derrick Henry and Deshaun Watson set to take center stage, there is no absence of star power in the championship game, and it very likely could come down to which superstar plays better Monday night at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Kickoff will take place at 8:30 p.m., with game coverage on ESPN.

Odds are, though, both players will find their typical amount of success. So before making a final score prediction, let’s take a look at which players could swing the game in their team’s favor.

X-Factor for Each Team

Alabama: QB Jake Coker

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

It might seem a bit unfair to label a starting quarterback for any team as an X-factor in the biggest matchup of the year, but when it comes to Alabama, there is this idea that the signal-callers are merely there to not screw up.

While the defense and the running backs take all the accolades, the quarterbacks are asked to not lose games, or at least that’s how the stereotype goes. But this has never really been a fair assessment, and this season has been no different with Jake Coker.

After emerging from a seemingly arbitrary competition in the early stages of the season, Coker hasn’t quite hit the heights Greg McElroy or AJ McCarron did, but he has had an outstanding season and showed he is more than capable of winning a title.

Against Michigan State, the veteran quarterback finished 25-30 for 286 yards and two touchdowns, and was a huge part of the 38-0 victory. If he can repeat his Cotton Bowl performance against Clemson, it could be hard for the Tigers to keep up.

Clemson WR: Hunter Renfrow

Joe Skipper/Associated Press

Beyond the obvious of Watson and running back Wayne Gallman, there might not be a more valuable player for the Clemson Tigers on offense than No. 1 receiver Artavis Scott. Leading the team in receptions and yards by a wide margin, the sophomore is clearly Watson’s top target, and that isn’t likely to change in the title game.

Thing is, Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart is more than aware of this fact and will game-plan as such, leaving the door open for the rest of the receiving corps to step up for the Tigers when their name is called. With Charone Peake drawing his share of attention in the secondary and Deon Cain suspended, it could come down to Hunter Renfrow to fill that role.

Only a freshman, Renfrow finished the season with 404 yards and three touchdowns through the air—fifth on the team—but stepped up in a big way when called on, putting in vital performances against Louisville, N.C. State and Oklahoma.

His showing against the Sooners, in particular—four catches for 59 yards and a score—could be a sign of things to come if Alabama elects to focus on Clemson’s top two receivers. Don’t be surprised if the matchup comes down to how the freshman receiver performs under pressure.

Prediction: Alabama 24, Clemson 20

LM Otero/Associated Press

Whether it be the natural charisma that Watson brings to the table or the typical idea of Clemson as a high-flying, speedy offensive team—which was the case during the last half-decade or more—the thing that gets overlooked by most casual fans is just how good the Tigers are defensively.

Ranking No. 6 in the country in yards per game allowed and No. 16 in points per game—a number that doesn’t do justice to the season as a whole, with games against N.C. State and North Carolina breaking the curve—Clemson dominated the Oklahoma offense, one of the most balanced in the country, to earn a spot here and cannot be overlooked in the title game.

But while the Tigers might be able to hold Alabama and Henry in check, none of that will matter if they can’t score themselves, and against the Crimson Tide that is easier said than done.

Alabama has only allowed more than 25 points once this season, and that was in a game where the team turned the ball over five times and saw the ball bounce in Ole Miss’ favor time and again. After watching Ohio State run over his defense in the semifinal the year before, Nick Saban isn’t going to let the same thing happen with Clemson this time around, and it could result in a defensive struggle for the ages.

It will be far more entertaining than some of Alabama’s field-goal heavy clashes with LSU in the past, but with scoring at a premium the Crimson Tide should have an advantage with their run-based attack and will keep their dynasty rolling with a close win against Clemson.

All stats via cfbstats.com