Cal at Oregon: The Ducks Look to Spring a Bear Trap

Oregon snapped the longest active winning streak in the nation at sixteen games last week by beating Utah 31-24 at Autzen Stadium. With LaMichael James leading a resurgent running game, the Ducks seem to have finally put the Boise State debacle and the loss of LaGarrette Blount behind them.

Good thing too, because there are more than enough problems to keep Chip Kelly and the team busy.

Coming into the season, many were looking at this week’s game between the Ducks and the Golden Bears to determine who would challenge USC for the Pac-10 title. Cal seems to have upheld their end of the bargain. They have dominated FCS Eastern Washington, thumped Maryland, and pulled away from Minnesota in the fourth quarter to gain a top ten ranking.

The Ducks however have managed to squeak by Purdue and Utah after laying an egg on the blue turf and come into the game an unranked underdog.

The biggest concern for the Ducks this week is without a doubt their lackluster passing game. Fans and pundits alike have called for Jeremiah Masoli’s benching. This follows his dismal performance against the Utes, 4-16 for no touchdowns, an interception. As well as two lost fumbles.

After finally blossoming against Arizona last year Masoli became a true dual threat QB, able to beat defenses with both his feet and his arm. Indeed, after impressive outings against Oregon State and Oklahoma State some were touting him as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate.

How quickly things change.

Masoli seems to have regressed to the player he was earlier last season. In 2008 his worst performance as a passer was on a rainy day in Berkeley. His 7-21 passing numbers contributed to an inept offensive showing and an Oregon loss, despite a tour de force performance by the defense which netted five turnovers.

A similar defensive performance this Saturday at Autzen will be hard to come by. A year ago Cal’s passing game had problems of its own. However, with Nate Longshore no longer breathing down his back Kevin Riley has been able to complement the dynamite running game led by Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen. The Bears seem to have finally found the offensive balance they have been lacking the past few years.

The Duck’s defense has risen to the occasion over the past few weeks, scoring two touchdowns against Purdue and holding the Utes offense to only 17 points. With the offense still finding its groove, Oregon can’t afford to get drawn into a shootout this week.

Despite Riley’s improvement, this Cal offense still keys off of Best. Keeping him contained is defenses’ priority number one. Oregon will have a much better shot at doing so if safety TJ Ward is able to return from an ankle injury suffered against the Broncos.

The Ducks’ most important job on defense is simply to stop big plays. Both of Utah’s offensive touchdowns last week came on defensive breakdowns that allowed 20+ yards gained. If Oregon’s defenders can keep Best in front of them and not get burned by Cal’s receivers downfield, they can keep the game within reach.

Despite a thrilling punt return by Walter Thurmond III in the first quarter, the Ducks special teams continued to show warts against the Utes. A blocked punt led to Utah’s only touchdown of the first half, and Jackson Rice never looked comfortable again. Thurmond also muffed a punt later in the game that gave Utah a short field.

Cal’s return teams have not been overly impressive so far this season. If Oregon’s special teams can avoid the costly errors they made against Purdue and Utah the Duck’s will have the advantage in this phase. Against a team like Cal, the Ducks need to take any advantage they can get.

Oregon found the successor to Blount and Jeremiah Johnson as LaMichael James stepped out into the limelight with a 152 yard day against Utah. Combined with Masoli’s scrambling ability and a maturing offensive line that has improved its run blocking the past couple of weeks, the Duck’s running game has shown it has the tools to regain the form it showed last year.

All of which means that Oregon’s chances against Cal most likely come down to Masoli and the passing game. For the Duck’s offense to take flight, Masoli has to do the hardest thing possible for a struggling QB being vilified by the fans to do:

He has to relax.

Masoli has not looked comfortable throwing the ball all season. He has allowed himself to get “happy feet” too often and his throwing motion has been off. Last week ESPN cameras showed an exasperated Chip Kelly miming “flick it, flick it!” after a missed throw on fourth down to tight end Ed Dickson.

As much as Masoli needs to do for the Ducks to win, he has to realize that he cannot try to do it all himself.

He has to remember that keeping the QB upright is the OL's job. He can’t always be moving around willy nilly just in case the rush is coming. All he can do is go through his reads, step up if he feels pressure, and get rid of the ball if the play has taken too long.

He has to have faith that his receivers will make a play if the ball is catchable. With Jeff Maehl and Jamere Holland both having dropped several catchable passes this season, that is easier said than done. However, trying to do the receivers job for them only leads to Masoli “guiding” the ball and messing up his release, making their job tougher in the end.

Masoli also has to start going through his progressions more. He has had a bad habit this season of staring down his receivers. He has to realize that it is not his job to use his impressive arm strength to force the ball to his primary target, but rather to find the open man and get them the ball so they can do their job.

The Ducks offensive play calling will be key to building up Masoli’s confidence in this game. Start with simple plays that will let the QB and receivers find a rhythm, WR screens or  short hitches. Even if it doesn’t work on first down Oregon can still run the ball well enough to move the chains.

Following the the Ducks struggles throwing the ball, Cal will no doubt start the game by loading the box and daring Oregon to beat them with the pass. The Ducks must take advantage of single coverage and force the Bears to respect the pass.

While it will sound like a broken record,  the best way to start this process is to get the ball to Ed Dickson. He has the stickiest hands on the team and is a mismatch for the LB's who are normally assigned to him in coverage.

Cal has been playing crisp, almost mistake free ball for the first three weeks of the season. It will be hard to be that composed at Autzen, but if the Ducks want to end a three year losing streak to the Bears they will need to elevate their own execution to a higher standard than they have shown all year.

If Masoli calms down and starts enjoying the game he can have the kind of renaissance performance he did last year against Arizona. If he can find his mojo again, and Oregon can come out on the right side of the turnover differential, the Ducks have a chance to break the spell Cal has had over them for far too long.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 38, California Golden Bears 35