Citrus Bowl 2016: What Florida Must Do to Beat Michigan

Florida and Michigan will meet in the 2016 Citrus Bowl having experienced similar seasons. 

Jim McElwain’s first season as Florida head coach was a success. The Gators won the SEC East and enter their bowl game with a 10-3 record. However, a late-season slump saw the team lose convincingly to Florida State and Alabama in its last two games. 

The Jim Harbaugh era at Michigan also got off to a rousing start. The former San Francisco 49ers coach quickly turned the program around, taking a team that finished 5-7 in 2014 to 9-3 this season. Yet, just like Florida, the Wolverines begin the postseason with a sour taste in their mouth after a 42-13 beating from rival Ohio State in their season finale. 

The Gators have a tough task in front of them as Michigan effectively plays a physical style designed to wear down its opponent. Florida has the defense to combat the Wolverines, but can it get enough from its offense? Here are three goals Florida must accomplish to earn a victory.

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Hold Michigan to Under 100 Rushing Yards 

Despite Harbaugh’s physical preferences, Michigan is not a stout rushing team. The Wolverines rank 93rd nationally in rushing yards per game with 153. 

However, the running attack is critical to Michigan’s offensive success. It takes pressure off of quarterback Jake Rudock by giving him additional time to find his receivers downfield, especially off of play action. 

It is no surprise then that in its three losses, Michigan failed to reach the 100-yard plateau on the ground, averaging a measly 65 yards in those contests. In their wins, the Wolverines averaged 182 yards rushing. 

Florida has the rush defense to stifle Michigan. It ranks 17th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game with 121. In their wins, the Gators held opponents to 97 yards per game while allowing 199 in losses. 

Both teams rely on such success running or stopping the ground game, which makes it even more imperative for Florida to hold Michigan. 

In Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor, Florida has arguably the nation’s best cornerback tandem. This should allow the Gators to stuff the box and leave their star corners in single coverage, where they will be able to lock down Michigan’s receivers. 

Look for Florida to accomplish this goal, giving its offense more possession time to get something going.

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Consistently Convert on Third Down

Florida’s offense found itself in a stagnant hole following starting quarterback Will Grier’s suspension, and the unit has yet to climb itself out. 

A predominant reason for this is Treon Harris’ deficiencies throwing the ball. Opposing defenses experienced success against Florida by loading up the box and daring Harris to beat them through the air, which he struggled to do. 

In order to reverse this trend, Florida must put Harris in manageable third-down situations to extend drives. The Gators were a pitiful 25 percent on third down in their losses while experiencing a 38 percent success rate in their wins. 

Harris completed only 45 percent of his throws on third down this season, with that number dropping to 40 percent when the yards to gain were more than six. 

Florida can utilize Harris’ legs, and speedy receiver Antonio Callaway can break away from defenders on drag routes in short-yardage situations. This will keep the offense on the field and lead to points, which could be at a premium in this game. 

Can the Gators consistently put themselves in this situation? It does not appear so. 

Michigan’s 16th-ranked rushing defense should be able to suffocate Florida’s 105th-ranked running game. Making matters worse is that the Gators' already young offensive line will be without Mason Halter. 

The Wolverines were recently burned for over 200 yards by Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, but Florida does not have a game-breaker at running back or the strong offensive line to pull this off. Michigan will allocate its resources to stopping running back Kelvin Taylor and Harris on the ground, putting the Gators in 3rd-and-long situations. 

This bodes well for Michigan, who holds opponents to 26 percent on third down, 23 percent in wins.

Win the Turnover Battle 

For all of its struggles, Florida’s offense has managed to take care of the ball well. 

The Gators hold a plus-15 turnover margin as Harris threw only five picks this season. This helped them stay in every game, particularly losses, longer than they should have as their defense was able to consistently work with solid field position. 

Florida will need to be at its best in this department against Michigan. The Wolverines enter the Citrus Bowl with a minus-six turnover margin. 

Ball security is the main area where Florida can take advantage. By forcing Rudock into must-pass situations, the Gators can utilize their secondary to change momentum with turnovers. Florida picked off 14 passes in 2015 and Michigan threw 10. 

On the contrary, Florida must commit zero turnovers to give itself the best chance to win. The Gators posted a plus-nine margin in wins and a plus-one in losses. Meanwhile, the Wolverines were minus-four in losses. 

With a struggling offense in a low-scoring game, the Gators cannot afford to help Michigan score. The lower the score, the greater chance Florida has to steal a win. Creating turnovers of its own help greatly as well.

All statistics are courtesy of CFBstats.com.