Fantasy Football: A Way-Too-Early Mock Draft for the 2016 Season

Is it too early to conduct a 2016 fantasy football mock draft? Clearly, we didn't wait for you to answer, because, well, this is a 2016 fantasy football mock draft. 

The 2015 fantasy football campaign is already over for most of us, with just one final stanza in leagues that play through Week 17. 

We recognize the 2016 fantasy football market still has so many meaningful milestones to pass before becoming a realistic landscape, but the goal is not only to have some fun but to also get an early gauge on how the new market will begin to develop. Free agency and the NFL draft are still months away, which means our favorite rookie running back for Week 14 in 2016 could be in the weight room at Central Michigan or Northern Iowa right now.

Even with many questions proving impossible to answer at this stage—like where Matt Forte will land in free agency or whether the Chicago Bears pay up for Alshon Jeffery—it's fun to hypothesize so far ahead with the recency of 2015 still so fresh. 

For the ground rules of this mock draft, we are using a half-point PPR (point per reception) format in order to recognize the value of receiving without making it an entirely wideout-driven economy. We aim to capture what the market might look like over the first six rounds of a 12-team draft. Players destined for free agency are still listed with their 2015 teams, while we don't include incoming rookies, either.

As always, please share your thoughts on the 2016 fantasy market and, of course, feel free to mock our early mock.

Round 1: Antonio Brown Is the Safest Candidate for the Top Pick

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Round 1

1. WR Antonio Brown, PIT
2. RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT
3. RB Todd Gurley, STL
4. WR Julio Jones, ATL
5. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
6. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
7. RB Adrian Peterson, MIN 
8. TE Rob Gronkowski, NE
9. RB David Johnson, ARI
10. RB Devonta Freeman, ATL
11. WR Dez Bryant, DAL
12. RB LeSean McCoy, BUF

Receiving love 

In our mock draft from this past August we saw nine running backs in the first round, while this far-too-early 2016 edition has merely a six-pack of backs projected in the top frame. The market will surely shift several times before next summer's mock drafts start to produce some stable ADP (average draft position) data, but we're guessing wideouts still dominate the August 2016 marketplace just as this edition suggests. 

We saw injuries afflict the receiver and running back positions alike this year, but league-wide trends are focused on increased passing efficiency and volume. Entering Week 17, we have just four 1,000-yard rushers in the league yet 21 players with 1,000 yards receiving. This makes elite backs more valuable, surely, but evidence suggests there are simply fewer for us to trust and price in drafts. 

Running rookies

It's not bold at all to have the St. Louis Rams' Todd Gurley near the top of the draft board. It won't be surprising at all to see him go No. 1 overall in many leagues next summer. It might be bold, however, to vault David Johnson of the Arizona Cardinals into such lofty draft status.

The reasoning isn't merely his recent league-winning surge; it's important to note the Cardinals really don't have a viable incumbent alternative to Johnson. Veteran Chris Johnson significantly slowed before going on injured reserve this season, while Andre Ellington was Sam Jackson's understudy in Unbreakable. Last year saw C.J. Anderson as a first-round fixture, while David Johnson's stock appears far more sustainable on the best per-drive offense in the NFL this season.

Round 2: Cam Is Poised as the Top Fantasy Arm in 2016

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Can Cam Newton repeat his rare 2015 fantasy campaign?

Round 2

1. RB Doug Martin, TB
2. WR Allen Robinson, JAC
3. WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI
4. WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ
5. WR A.J. Green, CIN
6. WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN
7. RB Thomas Rawls, SEA
8. RB Mark Ingram, NO
9. QB Cam Newton, CAR
10. WR Keenan Allen, SD
11. WR Julian Edelman, NE
12. RB Matt Forte, CHI

Fantasy free agents

The Chicago Bears' top offensive tandem of Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte is entering unrestricted free agency this March.

Even including games spent purely as a decoy given a number of lingering soft-tissue ailments this season, Jeffery was still 16th among skill players this season in fantasy points per game in PPR formats. That's not just among receivers but all skill players, which suggest his second-round stock is still quite intriguing.

While it's more likely Jeffery will stay in Chicago given he'll be 26 entering next season and is a clear candidate for either a rich, long-term pact or the franchise tag, as Bleacher Report's Matt Eurich discussed recently, Forte is quite likely moving on, given the team's depth chart behind him.

It's Forte who proves most polarizing, as the open market will determine his destination. Jeremy Langford will likely assume lead back duties going forward with Forte having turned 30 this season and with 2,502 touches over his career in the regular season.

This might appear bold to deploy Forte in the second round, but we're merely taking a nod from last season, when veterans like Frank Gore and Andre Johnson crept into the third round in some formats without nearly the production pedigree of Forte's past two seasons. Once again, we aren't ranking these players for next season but rather predicting how the market might behave.

Forte was 15th in fantasy points per game among all skill players this season in ESPN standard leagues and tied with Mark Ingram for seventh among backs. It's easy to write off his lost season, but even at his advanced age, his 2015 tape and fantasy metrics suggest he could become a top pick next summer if he lands in a fantasy-friendly spot like feature work in Dallas or Houston, for example. 

Can Cam do it again? 

The Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton's brilliant 2015 will surely lead to inflated 2016 draft stock. He is fourth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks since entering the league in 2012 and is second behind only Andrew Luck in per-game fantasy output since the start of last season. 

Will the market learn its lesson from this year's disastrous top tier at quarterback that saw the Indianapolis Colts' Andrew Luck fail to help fantasy managers even when healthy? History says no, as some top signal-callers always creep into the top rounds. 

With quarterback proving so deep once again in this increasingly pass-happy league—the Jaguars could possibly lead the league in passing touchdowns, mind you—we'd suggest you wait a bit later on QB, but Newton's combination of rushing and improved passing weapons next season will only incite more interest from the market.

Seattle shift

We're projecting a shift in the Seattle Seahawks' backfield, as Marshawn Lynch is set with a massive cap hit on the downward arc of his brilliant and bruising rushing career, and Thomas Rawls will cost Seattle less than one-tenth of Lynch's cap number, per Spotrac. In the seven games Rawls saw the start or featured workloads this season, his clip of 15.1 fantasy points per game would rank second only behind Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons.

Round 3: Big-Play Maven Sammy Watkins on the Rise

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Round 3

1. RB Jeremy Langford, CHI
2. WR Mike Evans, TB
3. WR Jordy Nelson, GB
4. WR Sammy Watkins, BUF
5. WR Amari Cooper, OAK
6. RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC
7. RB Eddie Lacy, GB
8. WR Martavis Bryant, PIT
9. QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
10. WR Calvin Johnson, DET
11. WR Brandin Cooks, NO
12. RB Chris Ivory, NYJ

Sammy the superstar? 

This might appear bold for Watkins, but let's consider he is 21st among all skill players and 10th among receivers in per-game fantasy scoring in ESPN standard leagues this season. In averaging 11.6 standard fantasy points per game, Watkins finished above the likes of A.J. Green, Keenan Allen and Martavis Bryant in per-game production.

Tyrod Taylor is in the top 10 in QBR, passer rating and nearly every vertical passing metric, which suggests Watkins has already established his case as top-12 fantasy wideout.

Mega-done? 

Is Calvin Johnson going to be with the Detroit Lions next season? Is he going to be worth a high-end fantasy investment? No really, please let us know in the comments below.

With deflated stats and an inflated cap hit, we might see a new home for Johnson in 2016. Given his Canton-bound pedigree, Megatron is tentatively in the third here, with a pivotal offseason left to refine his stock.

Round 4: Jordan Reed Rising to Rare Heights for Redskins

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Round 4 

1. TE Greg Olsen, CAR
2. RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA
3. RB Lamar Miller, MIA
4. WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
5. TE Jordan Reed, WAS
6. WR Jeremy Maclin, KC
7. WR Allen Hurns, JAC
8. WR Eric Decker, NYJ
9. WR T.Y. Hilton, IND
10. QB Tom Brady, NE
11. QB Andrew Luck, IND
12. TE Tyler Eifert, CIN

Shifting values

This round is rich with running backs who could gain serious value depending on what unfolds in the coming months.

Marshawn Lynch is unlikely to stick with the Seattle Seahawks given his big asking price and the rise of Thomas Rawls. We could be wrong, but huge margins in price and age often win out in the NFL. 

Lamar Miller was again elite in terms of efficiency, averaging the 12th-most fantasy points despite ranking 27th in the league in carries per game with just 11.7 this season. That's not a typo—the Dolphins held him below 12 carries despite his averaging 4.64 yards per carry.

While workload again felled his fantasy season, if Miller lands in a spot as the unquestioned bell-cow back, he'll vault way up the board. Really, if these proven producers land in new spots with feature workloads (think Dallas, Houston or even Denver), they would significantly rise up the board. 

Tight end tier

The argument for waiting until at least this far for tight end talent could prove prudent next season, as the gap between Rob Gronkowski and this class isn't so wide anymore.

There is a valid angle for Reed to merit even higher stock given he was just one fantasy point per game behind Gronk in ESPN leagues this season, but serious durability issues remain part of the package. 

Round 5: The Return of Josh Gordon

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Round 5 

1. RB Latavius Murray, OAK
2. RB Jamaal Charles, KC
3. WR Randall Cobb, GB
4. WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
5. WR Doug Baldwin, SEA
6. QB Carson Palmer, ARI
7. RB Matt Jones, WAS
8. QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
9. WR Josh Gordon, CLE
10. WR Jarvis Landry, MIA
11. RB Jeremy Hill, CIN
12. WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

Fading Fitz? 

The Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald enjoyed an awesome revival campaign but also a serious second-half statistical fade. He was fourth in fantasy points per game among wideouts through Week 9 this year in ESPN standard scoring and just 35th at the position since Week 10. With Michael Floyd's balloon payment looming as a big offseason angle for the Cardinals, it will be interesting to see how the market prices this veteran.

Waiting on Charles

Before his injury, the Kansas City Chiefs' Jamaal Charles was en route to another elite fantasy season, as he was third in fantasy points per game in ESPN formats for players with at least four games played. We honestly don't know when to expect Charles back given his serious ACL injury.

We are essentially pricing Charles similarly to how Arian Foster of the Houston Texans was drafted last season—as a risk/reward investment in a player with a superstar pedigree but serious recovery concerns. Even Foster will have a market if he can return to the field next summer.

Washington ground game

Matt Jones has had some fumbling issues for the Washington Redskins this season, but with Alfred Morris heading for free agency and the team finding some stability behind center, this big-play producer could be an interesting mid-round back if he sticks atop the depth chart.

The return of Gordon

The Cleveland Browns' Josh Gordon is undeniably gifted but still needs to clear some serious hurdles before getting back into the league. This mid-round projection bakes in any potential for any suspension weeks to start the season, no pun intended. If he's available for Week 1, we're guessing Gordon's stock enters the third round, even if the Browns are still leaning on Johnny Manziel. 

Round 6: DeMarco Murray Leads the Risk/Reward Class

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Round 6

1. WR John Brown, ARI
2. RB Dion Lewis, NE
3. RB Charcandrick West, KC
4. RB Danny Woodhead, SD
5. TE Delanie Walker, TEN
6. QB Russell Wilson, SEA
7. RB DeMarco Murray, PHI
8. RB Jay Ajayi, MIA
9. RB Carlos Hyde, SF
10. WR Stefon Diggs, MIN
11. RB Melvin Gordon, SD
12. WR Michael Floyd, ARI

Risk/reward rounds

Getting into the middle tier of the draft, we begin to really find the boom-or-bust assets, as prospects such as Charcandrick West, Melvin Gordon and Carlos Hyde could become young feature backs or simply shares of respective committees.

Jay Ajayi of the Miami Dolphins is particularly intriguing since he could become the feature back with Lamar Miller facing a payday.

A new coach will surely inherit DeMarco Murray's salary and talent in Philly; there is some real profit in his 2016 profile if the offensive line and scheme can be repaired.

Leftovers

Any glaring omissions strike you? Help us figure out who we left out of the top six rounds. Names like DeSean Jackson, Gary Barnidge, Travis Kelce (lack of downfield targets and red-zone usage still caps the upside angle), Jordan Matthews and Michael Crabtree missed the cut, but we're sure there are many more worthy candidates.