Ed Feng's CFB Playoff Semifinal Projections
Which team will win the College Football Playoff?
Undefeated Clemson is the top seed, but the Tigers must fend off three one-loss contenders, a few of which might be better than the Tigers.
Here, we'll use the college football analytics at The Power Rank to break down matchups and assign a win probability to each team in the semifinal games. These numbers drove the playoff odds for Bleacher Report over the past two seasons.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
These analytics also imply a probability for each team to win the College Football Playoff. I averaged this win probability with the implied odds from the market, as provided by Odds Shark, to make this visual:
The ensemble predictions heavily favor Alabama with a 46.6 percent chance to win the title. Oklahoma follows with a 25.8 percent chance. My numbers (21.8 percent) differed from the market's (29.7 percent) the most with the Sooners.
Clemson has the third-highest chance at 16.2 percent despite being the top seed, and Michigan State brings up the rear at 11.4 percent.
Let's break down the semifinal matchups.
Alabama vs. Michigan State, Cotton Bowl
Alabama faces another Big Ten opponent as a big favorite in the College Football Playoff. Last year, Ohio State upset the Crimson Tide 42-35 by rushing for 302 yards (number doesn't include sack plays).
There are two reasons Alabama will get a better result against Michigan State this season.
First, the Spartans can't run the ball. MSU has rushed for 4.3 yards per carry, 111th out of 128 FBS teams (numbers do not include sacks like traditional college football statistics). Moreover, it faces an Alabama front seven that has allowed 3.5 yards per carry, second-best in the nation.
Michigan State must throw the ball with quarterback Connor Cook to have any chance of scoring against Alabama. Cook has completed only 56.9 percent of his passes this season, below the college football average of 60 percent.
However, Cook throws a large portion of his attempts downfield, and those difficult passes bring down his completion percentage. In the Rutgers game, he threw 18 of 38 passes more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, by my charting.
Still, the Spartans will have a tough time challenging the Crimson Tide defense.
Second, Alabama has transitioned from a pass to run offense over the course of the season. In the first four games, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin called for passes on 53 percent of plays while breaking in new quarterback Jacob Coker. Over the last nine games, Alabama has thrown on only 38 percent of snaps, instead offering teams a steady diet of Derrick Henry runs.
This change in play-calling led to a Heisman Trophy for Henry, and it could serve the Tide well against Michigan State.
The Spartans are solid against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry, 34th in the nation. They play an aggressive style of defense, as tackle Malik McDowell often pushes his blocker a few yards into the backfield.
This aggressive style does allow for big runs at times, and Henry will have his opportunities to break away.
Overall, my numbers predict an 8.4-point win for Alabama on Thursday at AT&T Stadium, which corresponds to a comfortable 73 percent win probability. The market now favors Alabama by 10.
Oklahoma vs. Clemson, Orange Bowl
This game won't be anything like last year's bowl matchup between these two teams. Clemson beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl, as Oklahoma's secondary missed numerous tackles and the Sooners were just outmatched for the entire game.
Oklahoma's defense has made a vast improvement from last season, allowing only 4.7 yards per play, 10th-best in the nation and much better than its rank of 32nd last season.
When Clemson has the ball, it should throw against Oklahoma's defense. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has led an offense that has gained 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 19th-best in the nation (numbers include sacks). The Tigers are not as efficient in the run game, gaining 5.2 yards per carry (59th in the nation).
When Oklahoma has the ball, it will find more success with running than throwing. Clemson's defense has allowed 4.7 yards per pass attempt, sixth-best in the nation. The Tigers' pass rush sacks the quarterback on 9.3 percent of pass attempts.
On the other hand, Clemson also allows 4.7 yards per carry. It's strange to see a defense that allows equal yards per play in passing and rushing, as pass plays are usually more efficient. Oklahoma should give the ball to running back Samaje Perine early and often.
Overall, this might seem like a shootout type of game, with quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Watson making the headlines. However, Oklahoma and Clemson both have top-10 defenses, so don't be surprised to see a fair share of stops.
My numbers give a slight 0.8-point edge to Oklahoma in Thursday's matchup at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, which implies a 52 percent win probability. The market likes the Sooners more as a 3.5-point favorite.
Ed Feng has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford and runs the sports analytics site The Power Rank. Stats provided by the Power Rank unless otherwise noted. You can find him on Twitter @thepowerrank.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
