Rose Bowl 2016: Key Stats to Know for Iowa vs. Stanford
Iowa vs. Stanford might not be the Rose Bowl matchup most fans thought would take place when the 2015-16 season started, but here we are.
The Hawkeyes' improbable undefeated regular season came to a screeching halt in the Big Ten Championship Game, but it's first trip to Pasadena since 1991 is a nice consolation prize.
Stanford had its playoff hopes dashed a little earlier in the season. A loss in the first week to Northwestern left no margin for error and a two-point loss to Oregon in the middle of November finished it off. Now, the Cardinal have a shot at some revenge on the Big Ten with a win in its most storied bowl game.
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The matchup is an intriguing one between two like-minded teams. But how do they stack up? Here's a look at some of the key stats that will impact how this game plays out.
The Advanced Metrics
In a game between two high-quality teams, advanced metrics can be great for giving a snapshot of just how well two teams have played this season.
Football Outsiders' FEI rankings, ESPN.com's FPI and TeamRankings' predictive rankings are good to look at because they factor in the quality of opponents while looking at how well both teams have actually played—not just the results.
Essentially, we already know these teams won a lot of games. These stats attempt to quantify these teams beyond the win-loss records:
| Stanford | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| Iowa | 19 | 28 | 29 |
Even though Iowa enjoyed a greater record this season, the advanced metrics actually give the nod to Stanford across the board. This disparity only serves to confirm the perception that Iowa might not be as good as its record, even though it has done just about everything possible to fight that bias.
Stanford's advantage in these metrics most likely explains its status as the 6.5-point favorite, per Odds Shark.
Turnover Margin
If you're wondering how the Hawkeyes have been so successful this season despite moderate efficiency on both sides of the ball, the answer is very simple. Few teams in the country have been better at winning the turnover battle.
Led by a ball-hawking defense (pun intended) and a quarterback in C.J. Beathard who only threw four interceptions this season, Iowa is eighth in the country in turnover margin with .92 per game.
To put it in perspective, Iowa lost the turnover battle in just two games this season. The first was its season opener against Illinois State. The Hawkeyes lost a fumble and forced no turnovers of their own. The second was the Big Ten Championship Game against Michigan State—their only loss of the season.
| Stanford | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Iowa | 26 | 14 | 12 | .92 |
Stanford has been far less adept in the turnover department. The Cardinal have actually turned it over fewer times but simply don't make as many plays on the defensive side of the football.
Turnovers are going to play a crucial role in this game. Iowa isn't as efficient as Stanford in other areas of the game, but the Hawkeyes have won all season by creating extra possessions through takeaways.
Given the Cardinal have the seventh-fewest giveaways in the nation, doing that in the Rose Bowl will be a challenge for the Hawkeyes.
Rushing Defense
It's no secret that both of these teams love to run the football. The fans know it, the coaches know it, the players know it.
If Stanford's Aziz Shittu's forecast for the game is right, the broadcast team is going to have some filler to do to fill the bowl's time slot.
"It's going to be smash-mouth football," the defensive end said, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. "The game is scheduled for 3 1/2 hours. It's probably going to end in three hours the way both teams are going to run the ball."
According to TeamRankings, Stanford is ranked 11th in the nation in rushing percentage, running the ball 64.5 percent of the time. Iowa is 27th, running it 59.7 percent of the time. So which team is better equipped to stop the run?
The numbers point to Iowa:
| Stanford | 415 | 1910 | 4.60 | 146.92 |
| Iowa | 435 | 1494 | 3.43 | 114.92 |
The Hawkeyes run defense has been a strength all season. Limiting opponents to 3.4 yards per carry has been a major contributor to the Hawkeyes' success.
Stanford's ability to stop the run is a little less intimidating. Under David Shaw, the Cardinal have usually been a stalwart against the run; however, the talent in the front seven isn't quite what it used to be. Stanford has given up big days on the ground to the tune of 469 yards in its last two games against USC and Notre Dame.
That could be a serious issue taking on a team as dedicated to running the football as Iowa is. Senior running back Jordan Canzeri told the Rose Bowl that he will be healthy and ready to go after spraining an ankle in the Big Ten Championship Game:
With Canzeri and junior running back LeShun Daniels ready to go, Stanford's once-vaunted defense could be in trouble. The Hawkeyes would love nothing more than to get the run game going and should have success there.
Combined with Iowa's ability to shorten the game and control the football, an upset could be brewing.
However, the Hawkeyes haven't done well in bowl games recently. Kirk Ferentz's squad is currently on a three-game losing streak in postseason play. Although Daniels and Canzeri should have good days, it doesn't answer how the Hawkeyes defense will slow down AP Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey.
Stanford's versatile playmaker and overall efficiency could be the difference as Iowa struggles to force the turnovers it needs to win the way it did all season.
Prediction: Stanford 27, Iowa 24
All statistics used courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
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