Fiesta Bowl 2016: Key Stats to Know for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Numbers never lie. 

Well, sometimes they do, but when previewing a matchup like Ohio State vs. Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, they're a pretty good indication of how the game will play out. 

Both storied programs put together strong resumes this season but just came short of the playoffs. Notre Dame missed out by a total four points, with two-point losses to Clemson and Stanford. Ohio State missed out on the party by three against Michigan State. 

Now, all that's left to do this season for one of the teams is go out with a New Year's Six bowl victory and earn bragging rights over a program it hardly ever sees. The two teams have played just five times despite their relative proximity. 

Here's a look at some of the stats that are going to tell the story of this game along with a prediction for what the score will ultimately be. 

The Advanced Metrics

Metrics that seek to quantify team performance continue to become a better barometer for which teams are the best in college football. Rather than stats that are easily swayed by pace of play and garbage time like total yardage, these stats seek to measure teams on either a play-by-play or drive-by-drive basis. 

The result is a more accurate depiction of just how well a team is playing. Both Notre Dame and Ohio State have been favorites of most metrics. Here's how they measure up in ESPN.com's FPI, TeamRankings' predictive rankings and FEI and S&P+ from Football Outsiders. 

	FPI	Predictive Ranking	FEI	S&P+
Ohio State	3	3	7	4
Notre Dame	9	9	6	8

Looking at the metrics, two things come to mind. First, Ohio State might be on the same level as the team that won the national championship last season. This year's team ranks higher in TeamRankings' predictive rankings. The Buckeyes were No. 1 in FEI and S&P+ a year ago, but that was after they ran through Alabama and Oregon to a national title. 

The second takeaway is that Notre Dame is as good as its ranking indicates. The Irish get knocked because of a weak schedule and perceived nepotism in the polls, but they're a legitimate Top 10 team. 

Notre Dame is Extremely Efficient at Running the Ball

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

DeShone Kizer and Will Fuller have attracted all the headlines for Notre Dame this season, but it's the ground game that really makes the offense go. 

The Irish are No. 6 in the nation in yards per carry at 5.7. Brian Kelly's ability to get the most out of his carries allows for one of the most balanced attacks in the country. According to TeamRankings, Notre Dame is No. 52 in the country in rush-play percentage at 54.96. 

Notre Dame's success on the ground can be attributed to multiple players. C.J. Prosise leads the way with  1,029 yards on the season, but he's missed two games due to injury and only averages 15.7 carries per game when he is healthy. 

Freshman Josh Adams has been huge as the replacement for an injured Prosise. He has at least 140 yards rushing in three of his last four games. 

Notre Dame should be able to hurt Ohio State through the air. The Ohio State secondary is strong, but the duo of Kizer and Fuller have been hard for just about everybody to stop this season. 

However, Michigan State laid out the blueprint for beating Ohio State: Refuse to give up on the run on offense and also stop the run on defense. 

The former should be no problem for the Irish; it's been a part of their identity throughout the season, and they just came off a 299-yard performance against Stanford.

The latter might be an issue because...

Notre Dame's Run Defense Is Its Greatest Weakness

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

This is where the news gets bad for the Irish. 

Despite Jaylon Smith and Sheldon Day being two of the best interior defenders in the country, Notre Dame's defense against the run could best be described as underwhelming. 

They rank 78th in yards allowed per carry at 4.5. The advanced metrics aren't a fan of Notre Dame's run defense either. Their S&P+ rush defense is ranked just 51st. 

Those aren't ideal numbers for a defense that's about to be tasked with stopping one of the most prolific backs in the country in Ezekiel Elliott. After going off for 214 yards against Michigan to end the regular season, Elliott has made it known that he's looking forward to the matchup on January 1:

The key to stopping Ohio State is shutting down the run. As good as J.T. Barrett and the rest of the passing attack can be, Urban Meyer's offense revolves around establishing the run first and then attacking the gaps in pass coverage off the run. 

However, stopping the Ohio State ground attack is easier said than done. It takes a truly elite run defense to do that job. At this point, Notre Dame has shown that it doesn't have that quality. 

That's going to make it difficult to hang with Ohio State over the course of four quarters. Expect Elliott to take over as the game goes on and lead the Buckeyes to one more win before running to the NFL draft. 

 Prediction: Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 21

All statistics used courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.