10 NBA Coaches Whose Seats Are Heating Up
About two months into the 2015-16 season, the path of this NBA season is starting to take shape, and some coaches' seasons are looking to be closer to the end.
Though this list isn't exactly ranked from No. 10 to No. 1, it can be sorted into portions, going from lukewarm to hot, in that order.
To make it clearer, since the coaches on this list have the best odds of getting let go throughout the NBA season, let's split the list into halves, with 6-10 being coaches who are on the border of being on the hot seat and 1-5 coaches who are on the hot seat.
Basically, the 6-10 guys are most likely finishing the season before they are potentially fired, while the 1-5 guys could be let go at any time. (Except for Byron Scott, who is kind of a tweener who could fit both sides.)
Further, in those halves, the rankings for the bottom five are fluid, while the coaches in the top five are more firmly ranked.
10. Dwane Casey: Toronto Raptors
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Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey may be the safest coach on this list because his regular seasons are not the issue.
It's how his teams perform in the playoffs.
After winning 49 games in the regular season last year, the Raptors were swept by the Washington Wizards in the first round of the playoffs.
On top of the early exits, Casey has been the subject of criticism in late-game situations. Blake Murphy of Raptors Republic said, “The Raptors’ offense actually doesn’t grade out that poorly on crunch-time numbers, but putting the playbook away late kills me … maybe keep the whiteboard in hand late instead of deferring to talented but imperfect one-on-one options.”
After being bounced by the Wizards, there was speculation that Casey would be fired, but he was retained by general manager Masai Ujiri.
If the Raptors fail to make an impact in the playoffs—or if their regular season crashes—it could be time to look elsewhere.
So who will be the next coach? In a roundtable with Blake Murphy, Tim Chisholm of Raptors Republic mentioned the glaring candidates (one who is seemingly brought up every year). “Again people point to Jeff Van Gundy, who hasn’t coached in nine seasons, or Tom Thibodeau, who took forever to get hired and then physically broke his whole roster, but they don’t excite me.”
It'll be interesting to see what happens. But with no extension from Ujiri so far, we could find out Casey's fate soon enough.
9. Alvin Gentry: New Orleans Pelicans
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Whether you choose to blame New Orleans Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry himself or GM Dell Demps for the surprisingly poor start by the Pelicans this season, one fact is becoming apparent with Alvin Gentry: he's just not a good NBA head coach.
To be fair, the roster put together by Demps isn't something that meshes with Gentry's philosophy. Guards Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday are both ball-dominant and can be nonexistent off it offensively. The Pelicans re-signed Omer Asik to a $60 million contract, despite his lack of offensive contribution.
Unfortunately for Gentry, previous head coach Monty Williams led the Pelicans to the playoffs during his last season in 2014-15, and Demps' seat could be heating up. Consider it bad timing for Gentry to have a slow start.
In Gentry's first season as head coach of the Pelicans, the team has the fourth-worst record in the league at 8-19.
An assistant head coach last year with the would-be NBA champion Golden State Warriors, Gentry was hired to take the Pelicans offense to the next level.
But the issue with the Pelicans hasn't been their offense. It's their defense. In the bottom third in 2014-15, the Pelicans are last in the NBA in defensive rating, giving up 109 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com.
It's early in the season, and Pelicans could turn it around because they do have Anthony Davis. But with an unstable front office situation and a disappointing start, Gentry could be ousted sooner rather than later.
8. Derek Fisher: New York Knicks
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Before the season started, Kyle Schlosser of SNY.tv said New York Knicks head coach Derek Fisher should be on notice the whole year.
"At this point in the process, such patience cannot be exercised once again," Schlosser said. "Fisher needs to be on the hot seat. That seat needs to remain hot all season long."
When you're in the largest market in the country, everything is magnified times 1,000.
Per Steve Popper of NorthJersey.com:
"You ever notice that Derek Fisher does some odd lineup stuff?
— Steve Popper (@StevePopper) December 24, 2015"
Or, per Anthony Donahue of SNY:
"Grant goes from not playing at all to playing down the stretch. That's that Derek Fisher 9th grade coaching style.
— Anthony Donahue (@AnthonyMSG) December 22, 2015"
(This came on the heels of Jerian Grant playing three minutes in three games, including two games in which he did not play last week.)
The Knicks stumbled into Kristaps Porzingis, and while they're enjoying thoughts of his future potential for the time being, Derek Fisher isn't part of that future.
7. Jeff Hornacek: Phoenix Suns
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Phoenix Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek burst onto the coaching scene with 48 wins in his first season as coach of the Suns.
Since then, it's a been a decline. Though GM Ryan McDonough shoulders some of the blame for a roster that included three point guards (two of which are no longer on the team), Hornacek's magic from season one seems to have dried out.
And it starts with their inability to close games. “You look at it: good teams close quarters, finish games,” P.J. Tucker said via Gerald Bourguet of Fansided.com. “We just haven’t done that.”
Earlier this month, during the start of a road trip, the Suns' late-game woes continued, via Empire of the Suns:
"During the first 4 games of the Suns road trip they've been winning for 126 minutes, tied for 17 & losing for 54. Phoenix is 1-3.
— EmpireOfTheSuns (@EmpireOfTheSuns) December 5, 2015"
Like Casey, late-game execution could be part of the downfall for Hornacek. With no current extension and rumors that his alma mater, Iowa State, may have wanted to snatch him from Phoenix, per Arizonasports.com, after the Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg left, the tea leaves say the Suns could be coachless come the offseason.
6. Sam Mitchell: Minnesota Timberwolves
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Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Sam Mitchell was put into this situation under the worst circumstances.
The unfortunate (and too-soon) death of former coach and president of operations Flip Saunders, who put together a stacked roster of young talent, thrust Mitchell into a coaching vacancy that wasn't the team's intention or long-term goal. (Naturally, of which, isn't any fault of his own.)
More, the Timberwolves openly tried prying current Memphis Grizzlies head coach David Joerger and bringing him to Minnesota (after it failed to nab college coaches Tom Izzo, Fred Hoiberg and Billy Donovan), per Marc Stein of ESPN.com, so it wasn't even in the original plan for Saunders to coach the team, let alone Mitchell. (Mitchell was a top candidate too, but Saunders' deciding to take the reins after Joerger says all we need.)
But the issues with Mitchell are apparent. The team's makeup doesn't fit with Mitchell's coaching style.
Steve Lee of Today's Fastbreak wrote, “His critics point to his aggressive, old-school approach and at the same time fielded opinions about his lax attitude towards his young, inexperienced team, knowing that the school of hard knocks isn’t necessarily going to help the growth of the team.”
With a young core that includes three players under the age of 21 in Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, the future of the Timberwolves doesn't mesh with Mitchell's philosophy.
As for replacements, Lee mentions several candidates that include Joerger, who may become available very soon (explained later).
Lee also mentions that possible candidates could be Los Angeles Clippers' assistant Sam Cassell or ESPN's Mark Jackson.
For an off the radar candidate, Lee mentions David Vanterpool, who is an assistant in Portland. Vanterpool's work with the young Trail Blazers' backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum could be valuable to the Wolves.
“Vanterpool has a wealth of experience as a young coach, spending time in Russia, Oklahoma City (director of player personnel) and with the Canadian National team (which brings familiarity with Wiggins),” said Lee.
More, last month, USA Today's Steve Amrick, said Kevin McHale could be another candidate.
The bottom line is that Mitchell may stay an interim until the Wolves find the next guy.
5. Byron Scott: Los Angeles Lakers
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We know by now that Scott is hesitant to adapt to the pace-and-space era of the NBA.
I mean, it even took Kobe Bryant telling Scott that the young core should get fourth-quarter minutes, per Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times.
"Kobe did not play after 3:56 of third quarter because he told Byron, "Let them go." He was talking about Lakers young players.
— Mike Bresnahan (@Mike_Bresnahan) December 10, 2015"
Whether we like to admit it explicitly, the Los Angeles Lakers are tanking.
One thing comes to mind when it involves Scott.
Scott is obviously not a part of the long-term plan for the Lakers' team. If the team is trying to tank to keep their top-three protected pick in next year's draft (the Ben Simmons sweepstakes) while simultaneously getting about $50 million in cap space, per basketball-reference.com, after Kobe Bryant's last season ends in April, the front office has done nothing to suggest that Scott is part of that future.
Dave Schilling of LakersNation.com acquiesces to this idea. “Maybe the critics outside of L.A. were right, that this is a bad team and Byron is just a stop-gap coach until they can figure out what’s next.” He is a stop gap and that means his time as head coach of the Lakers is near its end.
According to Schilling, “Fan favorite candidates to replace Byron include Tom Thibodeau and Scott Brooks.” The theme here is that Thibodeau will be one of the hottest coaching commodities in the NBA come next season. (Whether or not you believe in him is another story.)
(For now, though, enjoy the Bryant farewell tour. What a great career, man. As a basketball fan, it makes my heart heavy.)
4. Randy Wittman: Washington Wizards
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The Washington Wizards are in the midst of preparing for the free agency of superstar Kevin Durant.
To the Wizards' advantage, Durant is from the Washington D.C. area.
To the Wizards' disadvantage, the appeal of signing with a team which is on the decline loses a bit of the oomph it had when the Wizards swept the Raptors and it looked like Wittman got his coaching chops.
Wittman is in the first year of a three-year extension, so coming into the season, he seemed safe. But according to Tom Ziller of SBNation.com, “In an all-important twist, Wittman's contract is only partially guaranteed for 2016-17.”
So while it seems the Wizards are committed to Wittman, they aren't contractually. It's writing on the wall.
More, according to Steve Kyler of basketballinsiders.com, “Wizards sources labeled replacing Wittman as a last resort – one that’s not being actively considered.”
That could very well be true, but the grumblings of cutting ties with Wittman will always be there, like they were for the majority of last season. The Wizards are 13-14, and are the 11th-seed in the East, 2.5 games back of the eighth-seeded Detroit Pistons.
And with the possibility of Durant looming in the background, the Wizards may be forced to jettison Wittman early on in hopes that it doesn't deter Durant.
Since this is so new, no clear-cut rumors or speculation is out there for who the Wizards can or will target when Wittman is let go so it's a situation to keep an eye on.
3. George Karl: Sacramento Kings
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Sacramento Kings head coach George Karl was hired after the surprising firing of previous coach Michael Malone, whom DeMarcus Cousins said the team believed in.
"Cousins said the firing was "unexpected" and "emotional" for the team because so many of them believed in Malone.
— Jason Jones (@mr_jasonjones) December 15, 2014"
So to be fair, Karl is getting the brunt of the pressure due to a bad ownership and front office group.
To Karl's credit, Rajon Rondo seems to have re-ignited his career as one of the best distributor's in the league. But his screaming anti-gay slurs toward referee Bill Kennedy put a black on eye on an otherwise good resurgence story.
But Karl's fractured relationship is with Cousins—the franchise's best player—and who has had his run-ins with coaches before.
Last month, Steve Kyler of basketballinsiders.com said it was more likely the team would side with Cousins. “Sources close to Kings ownership say it’s far more likely that Karl is removed as coach than Cousins being traded,” Kyler said.
As for a replacement, who can really tell with owner Vivek Ranadive? Matt Moore of CBSSports.com says Corliss Williamson—an assistant on the team—could take over because he “would bring a toughness that the team would likely respond to.”
But the Ranadive's golden goose is Kentucky Basketball head coach John Calipari. Via Moore, transcribed by Probasketballtalk.com, Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher said, “Ranadivé's biggest dream is to have Kentucky coach John Calipari come out and coach this roster full of Kentucky players.”
"The belief is that Ranadive plans to make an offer that Calipari simply cannot refuse,” Bucher said.
The bottom line is: Karl never really had a chance.
2. Lionel Hollins: Brooklyn Nets
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The Brooklyn Nets are a mess—a complete and utter mess.
Ignoring all of the front office blunders that include giving up their first-round pick next year unprotected, Nets head coach Lionel Hollins seems to be on his way out Brooklyn.
According to a Russian news agency—TASS—via Brian Lewis of NYPost.com, “The coach’s credibility is at an end. The article later said “This just isn’t working and everyone knows it.”
(The irony here is that the coach's credibility within the organization has ended.)
With Hollins seemingly on the way out, Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated said newly hired scout Randy Ayers makes an interesting replacement. Mannix said, via netsdaily.com, “Though officials insist Ayers is not an emergency replacement for Hollins, there is respect for Ayers' coaching within the organization.”
There's just not much more to say other than Hollins will be gone.
1. Dave Joerger: Memphis Grizzlies
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Joerger seems to be the coach who is most imminently fired of anyone on the list, as told by Brian Geltzeiler:
"League source tells me that Dave Joerger is extremely close to being fired. Depending upon tonight's game, could happen as soon as tomorrow
— Brian Geltzeiler (@hoopscritic) December 14, 2015"
Obviously that didn't happen last week, but the pressure is near-bursting. We knew the Grizzlies' roster makeup was doomed to fail in the pace-and-space era, and Joerger admitted such by having Zach Randolph come off the bench in favor of Matt Barnes.
But the turmoil is there between the front office and Joerger, according to ESPN's Marc Stein.
"Keep your eye, meantime, on Grizz. Latest run of blowout Ls can only heat up simmering tension between bench & lead decision-maker Joe Abadi
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) December 12, 2015"
"Abadi is main shot-caller & driving force behind Jeff Green/Vince Carter moves. More thinly veiled shots at roster last nite from D. Joerger
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) December 12, 2015"
It's widely known that Grizzlies' owner Robert Pera has criticized Joerger in the past and almost fired him last season, according to Stein. "The biggest source of vulnerability for Joerger, of course, is the fact that Pera has internally questioned Joerger's leadership in the past and nearly fired him once before," Stein said.
More, Stein said Joerger's replacement could be simple. "Pera is known to be a huge fan of Tom Thibodeau, has pursued him before and could be moved to make a run at Thibs before someone else does," he said.
Couple that with a roster that ranks 26th in offensive rating and 27th in points per game according to NBA.com (0.2 points ahead of 29th-placed Milwaukee/Brooklyn), and Joerger seems to be the coach who will be on his way out first.
