Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Carolina has been taking control of the rivalry with Atlanta, winning five of the last six meetings outright and going 6-1 against the spread over the last seven matchups with the Falcons. So it looks like the Panthers have an excellent chance of reaching 15-0 when they visit Atlanta Sunday.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.3-13.7 Panthers

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina now owns what is tied for the third-longest regular-season winning streak in league history after outlasting the Giants last week 38-35. The Panthers led that game 35-7 midway through the third quarter, allowed New York to come all the way back and tie the game with just under two minutes to go, then calmly drove 49 yards in seven plays to the game-winning field goal with five seconds left.

Carolina outgained the Giants 480-406, as MVP-to-be Cam Newton threw for 340 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 100 yards more. And over half of New York's yardage came after the Panthers had grabbed that 28-point lead.

Unfortunately for Carolina's financial backers, the Panthers blew the cover as four-point favorites.

Carolina has now outgained and outrushed each of its last 10 opponents, and nobody else in the league has done that.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons are coming off their best performance in recent memory, a 23-17 victory at Jacksonville, snapping a six-game losing streak. Atlanta, as a two-point underdog, took the opening possession 80 yards in eight plays for a touchdown, the first time they'd done that this season. The Falcons led 17-3 at the half, let the Jaguars rally and tie the game at 17-17, but a pair of Shayne Graham field goals provided the winning margin from there.

Atlanta got outgained on the day, 357-328, but won time of possession by a 35-25 margin.

Even though the Falcons recently lost six games in a row, four of those defeats came by a combined 11 points.

At 7-7, Atlanta isn't dead yet; it needs two victories in its last two games, and help from elsewhere, to make the the playoffs, but it has life.

Smart pick

Carolina leads the NFL in turnover ratio at plus-19, while Atlanta sits at minus-six. And while it's very difficult to predict turnovers, they do seem to run streaky. Besides, the Panthers are playing with huge verve right now, while the Falcons are one of the most fickle bunches in the league. Give the points with Carolina.

Betting trends

The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.

The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Falcons are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their last five games against their division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.