Pinstripe Bowl Betting: Indiana vs. Duke Odds, Analysis and Pick

Indiana ended the regular season on a 3-0 run against the spread; Duke, on the other hand, finished with just one cover over its last five games. Two teams with sights set on breaking long bowl-victory droughts meet when the Hoosiers and Blue Devils play in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.

Pinstripe Bowl point spread: The Hoosiers opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.6-30.4 Hoosiers

Why the Hoosiers can cover the spread

Indiana started 4-0 this season and then lost six games in a row. But four of those losses came by one score or less, including a seven-point decision to Ohio State, an eight-point decision against Iowa and that heartbreaking overtime loss to Michigan. The Hoosiers also only trailed eventual Big Ten champion Michigan State by five points late in the game up at East Lansing, before the Spartans broke loose for touchdowns to create a misleading 52-26 final score.

In the end, needing victories in their last two games to become bowl-eligible, Indiana won at Maryland 47-28 and at Purdue 54-36 to finish at 6-6 overall and 7-5 ATS. The Hoosiers outgained the Boilermakers by 173 yards and outrushed them by 159 yards. So Indiana has outgained and outrushed two of its last three opponents.

On the season, the Hoosiers are averaging 491 yards on offense—286 through the air and 205 on the ground. They've also scored at least 36 points seven times.

Why the Blue Devils can cover the spread

Duke started 6-1 this season, the only loss coming against a pretty good Northwestern team. But then came that joke of an ending in that loss at Miami, which apparently took an emotional toll on the Dukies, who then also lost their next three games, falling out of contention in the ACC. The Blue Devils then recovered just in time to win at Wake Forest in the season finale 27-21, finishing at 7-5 overall and 4-4 in ACC play.

On the season, Duke is averaging 431 yards per game on offense while allowing 372 yards per game, and both figures rank in the top third in FBS.

Smart pick

Duke is 0-3 straight up but 2-1 ATS over its last three bowls games and had a chance to win every one. Last year, the Blue Devils led Arizona State late in the Sun Bowl but fell 36-31. Indiana, meanwhile, hasn't played in a bowl since 2007 and may be without leading rusher Jordan Howard, who's dealing with a sore knee. The smart money here dines with the Dukies.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in five of Duke's last six games.

Duke is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games against the Big Ten.

Duke is 0-3 SU in its last three bowl games.

The underdog is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in all Pinstripe Bowls.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.