AJ McCarron Can Keep Cincinnati Bengals on Course for AFC North Crown

The Cincinnati Bengals can survive without Andy Dalton.

Dalton suffered a fractured thumb in his team's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and is unlikely to play again this season, according to ESPN's Dr. Mark Adickes. That forces AJ McCarron into the starting lineup. McCarron relieved Dalton against the Steelers and struggled. He completed 22 of 32 passes for 280 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

To be fair, it was McCarron's first extended action in a regular-season game. He was thrust into the spotlight without ideal preparation.

A week of practice should help him in his efforts to replace Dalton, but the reality is that McCarron isn't likely to be a good quarterback. He fell to the fifth round of the 2014 NFL draft because he lacked physical talent and wasn't refined enough technically to compensate for those physical limitations.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, McCarron will try to become the first Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback to win an NFL game since 1987:

So why should the Bengals be optimistic about moving forward with their backup quarterback? There are a couple of reasons.

At 10-3, Cincinnati is in a good position despite losing to the Steelers on Sunday. It is two games ahead of Pittsburgh with three to go. Of those final three games, two are against the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens. With 4-9 records, the 49ers and Ravens have been two of the least impressive teams in the league this year.

More importantly, the Bengals have the best supporting cast around the quarterback position in the NFL. Dalton didn't need to be a great player for the offense to function effectively; he just had to avoid making disastrous mistakes while offering competent service to his receivers.

With A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Giovani Bernard, Dalton didn't need to be a precise downfield thrower.

Green and Eifert form arguably the best receiving tandem in the league. Both players are inaccuracy erasers—their wide catch radii and ball skills in tight coverage allow their quarterback to throw in the direction of them rather than with precision to them.

Jones and Sanu are less effective but offer a similar style of play with impressive yards-after-the-catch ability.

Bernard doesn't show off the same ball skills, so he requires more accuracy from his quarterback. However, Bernard's ability after the catch is so impressive that he can turn short, simple throws into valuable plays. Fifteen of Bernard's 40 receptions this season have gone for first downs, while seven have gone for 20-plus yards.

To add to the overwhelming nature of the Bengals' talent at the skill positions, the team has arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Behind the Cincinnati line, Dalton didn't have to consistently play against pressure.

In Andre Smith and Andrew Whitworth, the Bengals have valuable run-blocking tackles. Whitworth is a great pass protector, while Smith is above average in that role. Center Russell Bodine is the only concern for the offensive line, but he is a talented—if inconsistent—run-blocker.

With those advantages, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has built an offense that simplifies the quarterback's reads and lets him make decisions before the snap instead of after it.

Because of the schedule and the standings, the Bengals will likely need to win only one more game to secure the AFC North and a home playoff game. It won't be easy, but if Jackson relies on the run and can set McCarron up with easy plays, Cincinnati has the surrounding talent to carry the quarterback.

All it will need from McCarron is for him to avoid disastrous mistakes. Against the Steelers, he was unable to do that:

Credit: NFL.com

On this play, McCarron threw an interception that William Gay returned for a touchdown. Gay is lined up in off coverage at the top of the screen. He moved closer to the line of scrimmage after the snap, which impacted McCarron's decision.

McCarron had an opportunity to make a decision that would have made Gay's actions irrelevant, though.

This was a packaged play. McCarron had the option to hand the ball off to his running back or throw a quick pass outside. With six blockers in front of Jeremy Hill and just six defenders in the box, the run was set up for success.

McCarron should have recognized this:

Credit: NFL.com

At this point of the play, McCarron had already made his biggest mistake, but Cincinnati needed him to avoid compounding it. He could have done that by finding his receiver running the slant route while hoping the officials didn't notice the offensive linemen downfield.

The offensive linemen advancing downfield tells us that this was a packaged play. If this had been a pass with play action, the linemen would have held their depth to pass-block:

Credit: NFL.com

McCarron initially focused his eyes downfield, closer to the slant route than the receiver in the flat. But then he snapped his head toward the receiver in the flat and immediately released the ball. McCarron never saw where Gay was.

His pass could have had a better chance to get to its intended target, but he needed to throw it with greater velocity. Instead, it hung in the air, and Gay was able to cut it off.

This kind of play is where a full week of preparation can have a big impact. A week of preparation won't make McCarron a better passer, but he can be more comfortable in the offense. With a better understanding of his options, he could have avoided the interception.

McCarron is confident in his ability. Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis touched on that confidence Monday, as Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported: "McCarron exudes moxie, confidence since the day he walked in [the] door here."

Christopher Price of WEEI.com asked McCarron to compare himself to an NFL quarterback during the draft process in 2014:

"

When it comes to similarities, from body build to how we were talked about coming out of college, I think Tom Brady. I think we play the game the same way. He still moves in the pocket pretty well to get away from blitzes. Everyone doubted his arm strength coming out. It's turned out pretty good so far.

"

When speaking to reporters after Sunday's game, McCarron revisited the comparison. This time, he didn't compare himself to Brady in terms of ability, but rather situationally. McCarron pointed out that Brady in his second season also took over for an injured starter (Drew Bledsoe).

The Bengals don't need McCarron to be Brady. They'd settle for the New England Patriots version of Matt Cassel. All they need is for McCarron to be competent. If he can be competent and the Bengals play to their established standards around him, they should win the AFC North.

After that, it's about hoping Dalton can get healthy in time for the playoffs.