Falcons vs. Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?

The Carolina Panthers open their season series against the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday with both teams heading in different directions. The Panthers, of course, remain undefeated, have already clinched the division title and seem to be inevitably costing toward at least a bye week and likely home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. 

The Falcons, meanwhile, have lost six of their last seven games, are on the outside looking in on the playoff picture and are in serious trouble.

It wasn’t always this way, of course. Through Week 5, both teams were undefeated. It looked, at the time, that the two games in three weeks between the clubs in the second half of the season would determine the eventual division winner.

October was such a long time ago, however. The Panthers have evolved from winning close games against questionable opposition to being a defensive juggernaut, while the Falcons' explosive running game that propelled them to great heights early in the year has come back to earth. On paper, the game in Charlotte, North Carolina, should be an easy win for the Panthers.

Then again, last week’s matchup looked fairly easy as well, and the New Orleans Saints nearly pulled off the upset over Carolina in the Superdome. Divisional rivalries have a way of getting the best out of teams, and you can often throw out the records, or at least ignore them somewhat, when two teams that know each other well get together. The Falcons and Panthers split the season series last year, but Carolina has won four out of the last five.

Let’s see what it will take for the Panthers to continue that streak and not let up against a struggling Falcons squad.

Offensive Game Plan

Bill Feig/Associated Press

Take your pick on how to attack the Falcons defense. The Falcons are below average against both the run and the pass. They only have three sacks over their last four games—the lowest total in the league—so they’re giving opposing passers all day to scan the defense. They’ve allowed 564 rushing yards over their last four games—third-most in the league—so teams have been running at will, as well.

There is talent that Carolina will want to avoid, of course. Kroy Biermann has one of those three sacks from his defensive end position and seven quarterback pressures over the last three weeks, per Pro Football Focus. He’s also the strongest run defender on the team by a significant margin, leading the team with 22 stops. 

The issues the Falcons have with run defense isn’t so much their line but their linebackers once running backs get to the second level. Middle linebacker Paul Worrilow particularly stands out in this regard; per PFF, his 15 missed tackles are fourth in the league at his position. He probably shouldn’t be a starter, and he’s not getting much help from his teammates on the second level. 

If Michael Oher, Andrew Norwell and the rest can continue to win battles at the line of scrimmage, Atlanta has not shown the ability to slow down mobile quarterbacks such as Cam Newton or stop pounding rushers such as Jonathan Stewart.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

In the secondary, it comes down to playing matchups well. The matchup to avoid is throwing the ball at Desmond Trufant—he may not have a ton of interceptions this season, but he’s a sure tackler and doesn’t let people slip around him for massive gains. It’ll be Trufant’s responsibility to take away the explosive, over-the-top pass play that Newton and Ted Ginn have hooked up for multiple times this season, so long as Ginn remembers to catch the football.

No, the player Carolina wants to throw against in coverage, ideally, is nickel cornerback Jalen Collins. The second-round pick from LSU has not had a stellar rookie season—against Tampa Bay, he gave up a 36-yard completion to Vincent Jackson. The Panthers don’t really have the receiving corps to stretch the field, but the improved play of Devin Funchess and the return of Corey Brown gives them at least an interesting set of options if they want to go four-wide and stretch the Falcons secondary.

That might be overthinking things, however. The Panthers’ offensive identity is to run, run and run some more, and perhaps that’s precisely what they should do against Atlanta. They’re in a position where they can play to their strengths and probably come out all right.

Defensive Game Plan

Bob Leverone/Associated Press/Associated Press

The marquee matchup of the week is the battle between Josh Norman and Julio Jones, both of whom should be headed to the Pro Bowl this year. Jones leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards and is behind just Adrian Peterson in total yards from scrimmage. 

Norman no longer holds the NFL lead in interceptions, but he’s arguably been the best cover corner this season; he’s allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of just 39.9, per PFF, which is only slightly better than the 39.6 rating you would receive for simply throwing all of your passes out of bounds. It’s likely All-Pro vs. likely All-Pro, and it’s definitely the most enticing matchup in the game.

The Falcons’ running game is also better with Devonta Freeman in and not Tevin Coleman; Freeman missed the game two weeks ago with a concussion, and Coleman just hasn’t provided the same oomph out of the backfield. Add in the usually sharp Matt Ryan, and you have the potential for a powerful offensive attack.

That hasn’t been really the case so far this season, however. While the Falcons have been about league-average in the rushing department, their passing attack, even with Jones, has been decidedly below average. Roddy White is showing his age, neither Leonard Hankerson nor Justin Hardy has really taken a step forward as a third receiver, and Jacob Tamme hasn’t looked great as a tight end. The passing game is pretty much just Jones making great plays, and while that’s useful, it’s not enough to drive an offense.

The Falcons need to stay committed to the run to have a chance, and then when the Panthers start creeping up safeties, they should hit Jones over the top. For that to happen, the offensive line will have to find a way to keep Kawann Short, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis from swarming and stopping Freeman cold.

Remember, the Panthers have occasionally struggled with run defense this season, allowing more than 100 yards in four consecutive games in the middle of the year. They’ve mostly turned that around, and it’s not likely that the Falcons will get too much of a push there. However, the most likely upset scenario is offense-driven—a big day for Freeman on the ground to keep the Falcons around until late and then a few jump balls to Jones in the end zone for the win. Carolina just needs to stay focused on its assignments.

Key Players

Carolina QB Cam Newton

Newton has gone back and forth in recent weeks—he’s alternating between Offensive Player of the Week performances and solid but unspectacular showings. He’s won the award three of the past five weeks, which has propelled the team and his MVP candidacy down the stretch.

According to the pattern, then, Newton is scheduled for another solid but unspectacular day against Atlanta. However, he has had success against Atlanta recently. In last year’s season finale, Newton scored through the air and with his feet in what rapidly became a blowout.

He’s done that 30 times in his NFL career; one more time and he’ll tie Steve Young’s record. He’d love to do that at home against a division rival like Atlanta.

Carolina OT Michael Oher

Oher is actually leading Pro Bowl voting among offensive tackles, which no one would have predicted before the season started. Some of that is just the bounce he gets as a starter on a 12-0 team, but Oher has significantly improved from his stint in Tennessee.

It hasn’t been an even improvement, however. According to PFF, Oher has been the 10th-best pass-blocker in the NFL this season among tackles but is dead last in terms of opening running lanes.

Can that really be accurate? Having watched Oher in action, as well as some of the other low-end players such as San Francisco’s Erik Pears, I’m not so sure I’d have Oher in last place, but it is the weaker element of his game. His primary matchup this week will be eighth-overall pick Vic Beasley; this might be a chance for Oher to use his experience to win the battle, even in the run game.

Atlanta OT Jake Matthews

Last year’s first-round pick did not have good games against Carolina last year. At home, he gave up a sack and five quarterback hurries to Charles Johnson and then gave up seven more total pressures in the road game in Week 17, per PFF. Johnson has made a lot of young players look foolish, but Matthews notably struggled.

Matthews has been better in his sophomore season.  He’s healthier, for one, but he also looks more confident in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. We’ll see if he can ride that improved play into a better matchup against Johnson, or if he’ll have another long day against Carolina’s pass rush.

Panthers DE Charles Johnson

Speaking of Johnson, last week was his first full week back from the hamstring injury that cost him most of the regular season. He actually returned to action two weeks ago, but this last week was his first game playing more than half of the defensive snaps since the beginning of the year.

Johnson had a great game against New Orleans. He didn’t sack Drew Brees, but he was a regular figure in the backfield, forcing the quarterback out of position on a regular basis. Obviously, he’d like to finish the play—he hasn’t recorded a sack since Week 1 at Jacksonville—but he’s clearly getting back to full health. He had a lot of success last year against Atlanta, so we’ll see if he can repeat that feat this year.

Panthers LB Luke Kuechly

Newton is getting a lot of MVP talk, as quarterbacks always do, but you can make the argument he’s not even the most valuable player on the Panthers. While he has been very good, this is still a defensively driven team, and Kuechly is the heart and soul of the defense.

What’s been most impressive about him this season is that he simply does not miss tackles. PFF has recorded him with three misses all season long, which is incredible, even when you take into account he missed four games with a concussion. For all of Freeman’s success this year, he hasn’t been particularly adept at breaking tackles or getting yards after contact, and it will be up to Kuechly and the linebackers to keep the Atlanta running back bottled up.

Prediction

Carolina is still more likely to lose at least one game on the schedule than it is to go 16-0, especially when you start to factor in the chances of the team resting starters down the stretch. It’s tempting to look at any of the divisional matchups and pick that one for the potential upset, but it’s probably best to keep looking this week.

Atlanta may not be in shambles, but it is reeling badly at this point in the year. The Falcons have enough talent to turn things around, but not on the road and not against an undefeated team.

Considering Carolina blew Atlanta out the last time they played, and the fact that Carolina is a better team now, and the fact that Atlanta had more to play for in the last matchup, it’s easy to see another comfortable win for the Panthers this week, as they improve to 13-0.

Prediction: Carolina 42, Atlanta 7

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.