Heisman Watch 2015: Last-Minute Expert Predictions for Epic Race

Amid a crowded field of Heisman Trophy candidates, only three finalists will attend Saturday night's ceremony in the hopes of snagging 2015's prestigious crown for college football's best player.

Alabama running back Derrick Henry, Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson will compete for the honor in a race without a runaway favorite.

Henry compiled monster raw numbers on a prominent school team bound for the College Football Playoff. Yet McCaffrey soared to the finish line as a prolific rusher, receiver and returner. Watson, meanwhile, dominated under center as an efficient dual threat for the undefeated and No. 1-ranked Tigers. 

Either way, voters will continue the trend of choosing a quarterback or a running back. But there's a strong chance a quarterback doesn't win for the first time since 2009, when Alabama running back Mark Ingram took the honor.

Of five polled Bleacher Report experts, three believe Henry will join his former Crimson Tide alum in the Heisman club. An ESPN.com poll, however, declared McCaffrey the victor. Watson didn't stray far behind in either vote. 

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Total Points
Derrick Henry, RB, ALA	3	0	2	11
Christian McCaffrey, RB, STA	2	2	1	11
Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE	0	3	2	8

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
Christian McCaffrey, RB, STA	6	4	0	0	0	46
Derrick Henry, RB, ALA	3	5	1	1	0	40
Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE	1	0	8	1	0	31

Final Candidates

Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama

The typical Heisman voter will get down to brass tacks rather than analyze advanced metrics. Although the one-dimensional rusher offered less versatility than his adversaries, Henry loaded up the box score in key categories.

Afforded 339 carries, including 90 during Alabama's final two games, the junior amassed 1,986 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, he not only led the FBS in rushing yards, but he broke an SEC record in the process:

Even if obtained through high volume, those numbers already made him the first running back since 2002 to claim the Maxwell Award. He didn't squander his many opportunities, scoring at least one touchdown in all 13 games while exceeding 200 yards in four of Alabama's last seven contests.

ESPN.com's Luke Knox identified competition as another key factor working in Henry's favor. In seven games against ranked opposition, he's averaging an NCAA-high 180.1 yards per game. Compiling 430 yards over Alabama's last two tilts also leaves a strong final impression.

The conventional stats make Henry the prohibitive favorite, according to Odds Shark. While the race is much tighter on overall individual merit, Henry is likely to receive the trophy. 

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Henry certainly reached the end zone more frequently, but McCaffrey accompanied his 13 scores with 2,387 yards from scrimmage and 1,042 kick-return yards. That touchdown tally also doesn't include the two he threw, so don't count out Stanford's Renaissance man. 

As pointed out by CBS Sports' Tom Fornelli, nobody comes close to replicating the 19-year-old's overall impact: 

"

Christian McCaffrey leads the nation with 3,496 all-purpose yards. The guy in second (SJSU’s Tyler Ervin) is 1,086 yards behind him.

— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) December 7, 2015"

The sophomore also closed the season in style, breaking Barry Sanders' record with 461 all-purpose yards during the Cardinal's Pac-12 Championship Game victory over USC. In a performance that cemented his invitation to New York, McCaffrey ran for, caught and threw a touchdown. The outing earned Stanford head coach David Shaw's adoration, per ESPN.com.

"To my left here is the best player in the nation," Shaw said. "I don't know if that's even a question. There's nobody in the nation doing what he's been doing. It's not even a debate."

Ironically, that effort created a massive debate. Many voters will drool over Henry's touchdowns and call it a day. Others will select a great quarterback on the nation's best team without a second thought. But by doing everything for a team who just missed the College Football Playoff, McCaffrey forced everyone to take notice. 

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Richard Shiro/Associated Press

With football awards on the line, don't ever count out the quarterback—especially one leading a 13-0 club into the College Football Playoff. In an SI.com fan poll, per Zac Ellis, the readers bought into the position's allure, voting Watson the winner over his rushing foes.

This thought isn't exclusive to fans. ESPN.com's David M. Hale used that as the foundation for his argument:

"

It's no knock on the other contenders, but Watson's job as QB is far tougher, and he has done it exceedingly well. He has beaten three top-10 teams, accounting for nine touchdowns and 1,001 total yards in those games. He has torched defenses with his arm (420 passing yards against Boston College, the No. 1-ranked defense in the country) and he has been an unstoppable weapon with his legs. (Not counting sacks, he averaged more yards per rush than Henry or McCaffrey.)

"

He wouldn't be here if Clemson went 9-4, but Watson also has the gaudy numbers to back up his candidacy. The sophomore has completed 69.5 percent of his passes and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt. While his passing numbers don't propel him over Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, a peculiar ceremony snub, Watson's 887 rushing yards and 11 scores put him over the hump.

His 11 interceptions are a bit much, but his 41 total touchdowns have mitigated the damage to his chances. Besides, he has practically played the role of quarterback and running back lately, registering 45 runs for 245 yards and five scores in Clemson's final two victories.

Yet his finale isn't gaining national buzz comparable to that surrounding Henry and McCaffrey. It's odd to see the quarterback as a third wheel in a trio of deserving contenders, but Watson may have to make due with a national title.