Who Will Be the Last Undefeated Team in 2015-16 CBB Season?
Based on talent and schedule, SMU is our current favorite to be the last undefeated men's basketball team standing this season—which will make for some fun conversations about one of the nation's best teams not being allowed to partake in the NCAA tournament.
Thanks to Wichita State and Kentucky nearly pulling it off in the past two years, a perfect 40-0 season feels more attainable than ever.
Well, at least it did a few weeks ago. We're already down to just 10 teams without a loss, and everyone under the sun is complaining about the lack of elite teams this year.
Perhaps the problem is just that the elite teams aren't who they're supposed to be? Purdue, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Xavier have each looked the part of a Final Four contender, even though they don't play in Lexington, Durham or Chapel Hill.
How long those teams will last without a loss, though, is what we're hoping to forecast today.
In addition to each team's odds of being the last undefeated and our guess at which teams are going to give them the most trouble, you'll find a percent chance of being undefeated on January 1 and February 1 on each of these slides. Those numbers are calculated by multiplying together the percent chance that KenPom.com gives them of winning each game before those dates.
Rankings are not exclusively based on those percentages, but it's also hardly a coincidence that the top three teams on our list are also the three teams that KenPom.com gives the best chance of being undefeated at the start of February.
UNC-Wilmington Seahawks
1 of 10
Likely First Loss: December 12 at Georgetown
Other Potential Losses: December 16 at East Carolina, December 19 at Radford, December 23 vs. UMKC, January 7 at Towson
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 0.9 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: less than 0.0001 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 1,000-1
Every year, there's at least one team that doesn't really belong in this conversation—a squad that slipped through the cracks by not scheduling many opponents, let alone good ones.
This season, that team is UNC-Wilmington.
While a few teams near the top have already played 10 games, the Seahawks are 5-0 with two of those wins coming against D-II schools. They commit too many fouls, shoot poorly from both the three-point and free-throw lines and have benefited from facing teams that are atrocious on defense.
Of course, if they upset Georgetown on Saturday, we'll be singing a different tune on Sunday. Until that time, though, there's nothing to suggest this team will still have a zero in the loss column on Christmas Eve.
Saint Mary's Gaels
2 of 10
Likely First Loss: December 12 at California
Other Potential Losses: January 9 at Pepperdine, January 21 vs. Gonzaga, February 4 at BYU, February 20 at Gonzaga
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 7.3 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.4 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 30-1
Who could have possibly guessed one month ago that the Saint Mary's Gaels would have a realistic shot of winning at California this coming Saturday?
It's a two-part surprise, the bigger of which is Cal not being particularly good (yet?). But it's also pretty shocking that Saint Mary's has won each of its six games by a double-digit margin after losing all five of last year's starters to graduation.
Emmett Naar is the only player on this year's roster who averaged at least 15 minutes or four points per game last season, yet the Gaels have eight players averaging at least eight points per game and are ranked in the top five in the nation in both three-point field-goal percentage and two-point field-goal percentage as a team.
Led by Naar and Boston College transfer Joe Rahon—who have combined to play 370 out of a possible 400 minutes against D-I opponents—Saint Mary's is one of the best passing teams in the country. It seems to always find the wide-open man for an easy bucket. And with Dane Pineau leading the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, even the occasional misses frequently result in second-chance buckets.
It's worth noting, though, that the Gaels have not yet played a game away from home, nor have they faced an opponent in the KenPom Top 100. Considering the sheer number of elite teams who had already been battle-tested in advance of not looking so good in their first true road game of the season, we're quite skeptical about the chances of Saint Mary's winning at Cal on Saturday.
Should the Gaels pull off the upset, though, they don't play their road games against BYU and Gonzaga until February, so there's a pretty reasonable chance that they could hang around for a while.
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
3 of 10
Likely First Loss: December 12 at DePaul
Other Potential Losses: December 22 at Texas Tech, January 23 at Texas-Arlington, February 11 at Louisiana-Monroe, February 13 at Louisiana-Lafayette, February 18 at Georgia State
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 3.3 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.04 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 20-1
The great thing about these still-undefeated minor-conference teams is that they're now just a couple of weeks away from making things really interesting for the rest of the season.
Arkansas-Little Rock already has true road wins over San Diego State and Tulsa—each of which opened the season either in or very near the projected tournament field. So, while the Trojans are projected to lose to both DePaul and Texas Tech in the next two weeks, who's to say they can't upset a pair of bottom-feeding major-conference programs?
Even though they're quite undersized—six of their seven leaders in minutes played are 6'5" or shorter—the Trojans have one of the most experienced (read: savviest) teams in the country. They lead the nation in free-throw percentage, rank second in defensive turnover percentage and somehow rank sixth in two-point field-goal defense. That data doesn't even include their season-opening wins over D-II Centenary and Central Baptist.
To make up for their complete inability to rebound—entering play on Tuesday, they ranked 325th in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage—the Trojans play at an extremely slow pace, minimizing the number of extra possessions the opposition could create on the glass. And thus far, it's working wonders.
If they're able to get by DePaul and Texas Tech, there certainly aren't any juggernauts in the Sun Belt Conference guaranteed to hand the Trojans a loss. There's at least an outside shot this team could replicate what Murray State did in 2011-12 by getting to 23-0 before suffering a loss.
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Xavier Musketeers
4 of 10
Likely First Loss: December 31 at Villanova
Other Potential Losses: December 12 vs. Cincinnati, December 22 at Wake Forest, January 26 at Providence, February 13 at Butler, February 20 at Georgetown
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 13.8 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 2.0 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 14-1
Is Trevon Bluiett the best player in the country whom no one seems interested in talking about?
The sophomore wing has made at least two two-pointers and at least two three-pointers in all nine games this season. And in case you ran out of fingers, yes, that does mean he has scored at least 10 points in each of Xavier's games. He's shooting an impressive 47.2 percent from beyond the arc.
We've seen this before, though. Ranked No. 40 by 247Sports in the class of 2014, he was a pretty highly touted freshman who started his collegiate career with six consecutive games with at least 13 points, shooting 55.6 percent from three-point range in the process. But then his stroke vanished, as he shot 27.0 percent the rest of the way.
This year, however, it feels like he's just warming up. In his last two games, he has 43 points and 21 rebounds in 48 minutes of action.
The rebounds are a new and valuable addition for Bluiett. He had one double-double last season, but he already has three in the first month of this season. With Jalen Reynolds and James Farr also patrolling the glass, the X-Men have an average rebounding margin of plus-14.7 per game.
It should be noted, though, that the Musketeers have yet to face an above-average rebounding opponent, which they will have to deal with in the next couple of weeks against Cincinnati and Wake Forest.
Outside of Bluiett, this has not been a particularly good shooting team, so the Musketeers could be in some trouble against a team that can neutralize them on the glass.
Iowa State Cyclones
5 of 10
Likely First Loss: December 22 at Cincinnati
Other Potential Losses: December 10 vs. Iowa, January 2 at Oklahoma, January 18 vs. Oklahoma, January 25 vs. Kansas, January 30 at Texas A&M
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 20.3 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.1 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 12-1
The Cyclones have a realistic shot at a No. 1 seed, but that's partially due to the increased strength of the schedule they'll be facing in the near future.
Their early computer numbers look strong because they've played three games away from home and have only faced one truly awful opponent (Chicago State). Let's be honest, though: Iowa State hasn't faced anyone of real value. Wins over Colorado and Illinois look OK, but they're not impressing anyone.
(It's the tried and true method of beating the RPI system. Go 6-0 in games against fringe top-100 teams, and your resume looks phenomenal. Even a 5-1 record in those games is usually pretty beneficial, so the reward is worth the "risk" of scheduling a bunch of mid-tier mid-majors and low-tier power-conference teams.)
Things are about to get dicey for Abdel Nader and company, though, as they host Iowa and travel to Cincinnati before opening Big 12 play at Oklahoma. The Cyclones are good enough to win any or all of those games, but start multiplying those odds together, and there's a slim chance they'll still be flawless one month from today.
Keep in mind, these teams are listed in order of likelihood of being the last undefeated team, not the likelihood of being the last team standing in the NCAA tournament. The Cyclones might be the best team on the list, but I can't envision them being undefeated beyond Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
Oklahoma Sooners
6 of 10
Likely First Loss: January 4 at Kansas
Other Potential Losses: January 2 vs. Iowa State, January 18 at Iowa State, January 23 at Baylor, February 13 vs. Kansas, February 20 at West Virginia
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 58.7 percent*
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 2.0 percent*
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 10-1
*Oklahoma still plays in the Diamond Head Classic in late December, which will likely result in games against Northern Iowa and BYU that are not yet factored into the schedule. For the sake of argument, we're giving Oklahoma an 85 percent chance of winning each of those neutral-court games.
Well, the new No. 1 team on KenPom.com certainly looked good in its 23-point win over Villanova on Monday night.
Did the Oklahoma Sooners look unbeatable, though?
If Buddy Hield, Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins are going to shoot a combined 51.2 percent from three-point range all season long while holding opposing teams to 22.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc, then, yeah, let's go ahead and crown Oklahoma as our 40-0 champs and move along to next season.
But even the almighty Stephen Curry had a three-game stretch last month in which he shot 32.3 percent from beyond the arc, and even the best defense in the world is susceptible to getting routed by one guy who catches fire. Assuming Oklahoma will have a gigantic advantage beyond the arc in every single game this season is a great way to get disappointed.
Eventually—most likely against a team such as West Virginia, Kansas or Baylor—a game will come down to a battle in the paint that Oklahoma isn't built to win. Let's not forget the Sooners were abused on the offensive glass by both Memphis and Wisconsin earlier this season and that Villanova's power forward situation is even more dire than Oklahoma's.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Oklahoma is suddenly going to fall apart. Considering how well this team has shot and defended through six games, there's now plenty of evidence to suggest the Sooners could get red-hot for six games in March and April.
Somewhere along the way in Big 12 play, though, they're going to slip up.
Such is life when you live and die by the three.
South Carolina Gamecocks
7 of 10
Likely First Loss: February 6 at Texas A&M
Other Potential Losses: December 18 at Clemson, January 2 vs. Memphis, January 9 vs. Vanderbilt, January 19 at Ole Miss, February 2 at Georgia, February 13 vs. Kentucky
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 36.8 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 1.0 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 7-1
It's too early to say with any certainty how good South Carolina actually is. The Gamecocks have not yet played a true road game, and their best opponent was either Tulsa or Hofstra. They've looked quite solid, especially on defense, but it's not surprising that they haven't been tested all that often.
But even though they play in a major conference, their schedule isn't going to get much tougher.
South Carolina won the SEC scheduling jackpot. It plays one game each against Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida and LSU, and each of those four games is at home. A testament to the "strength" of the Gamecocks' conference schedule, as far as KenPom.com's percentages are concerned, South Carolina's second-most difficult remaining game is at Clemson next Friday.
No offense to the Tigers, but when was the last time anyone was afraid of a road basketball game against Clemson? Heck, it's not even a true road game, as massive renovations to Littlejohn Coliseum have left Clemson playing its "home" games 30 miles from campus in Greenville, South Carolina.
If South Carolina is actually good enough to be an AP Top 25 and subsequent NCAA tournament team, it's tough to pinpoint a game that it will lose before early February.
Certainly, the Gamecocks could drop any number of games between now and then. Home games against Memphis and Vanderbilt are far from guaranteed wins, and road games against the bottom half of the SEC are always potential land mines. But if there's only one undefeated team remaining on the weekend of that big NFL playoff game that shall not be named, it might be South Carolina.
Purdue Boilermakers
8 of 10
Likely First Loss: February 6 at Maryland
Other Potential Losses: December 19 vs. Butler, December 22 vs. Vanderbilt, December 29 at Wisconsin, January 24 at Iowa, February 9 vs. Michigan State
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 29.9 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 4.9 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 6-1
Purdue was the most difficult team to rank.
What this team is putting on the court right now might be the best product in the country. The defense has been phenomenal, all nine wins have come by a margin of at least 12 points, and stud freshman Caleb Swanigan just played by far his most promising game of the season on Monday (11 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and two turnovers).
Put it this way: If Purdue's jerseys actually read "Kentucky" or "North Carolina," there would be substantially less griping about the dearth of elite teams this season.
Because of how well they're playing, there isn't a single game on the Boilermakers' schedule that looks like a guaranteed loss. There are an awful lot of coin-flip games between now and late February, though. And while a couple of coin flips may be fine, how many can any team survive?
Basically, which stats-class scenario are you more comfortable with: needing to get heads on seven consecutive coin flips or needing to roll a six on a single die before getting heads on two consecutive coin flips? You might think it's the series of coin flips; however, the second scenario is mathematically 5.33 times more likely to happen.
Of course, as far as this list is concerned, it all depends on when the die roll takes place. Scenario two is more likely to play out to completion, but which is more likely to still be undefeated 45 or so days from now?
If you've made it this far into the slide without your brain exploding, the moral of the story is that probabilities are messy. And though the game that Purdue is most likely to lose isn't played until early February, it's pretty unlikely the Boilermakers will actually get that far.
Clear the upcoming hurdles against Butler, Vanderbilt and Wisconsin. Then, perhaps in early January, we'll start entertaining the notion of an undefeated season for Purdue.
Michigan State Spartans
9 of 10
Likely First Loss: February 9 at Purdue
Other Potential Losses: December 29 at Iowa, January 17 at Wisconsin, February 6 at Michigan
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 23.8 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 2.6 percent
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 5-1
Whereas Purdue has a lot of games that could go either way, KenPom.com gives Michigan State at least a 68 percent chance of winning in all but four of its remaining games, each of which is listed above.
And if the Spartans truly deserve to be the No. 1 team in the country, is there any reason for them to fear those first three games—aside from the mantra that no one goes undefeated in Big Ten play?
Iowa and Jarrod Uthoff are quite good, but losing to Dayton and Notre Dame before needing overtime to beat Florida State isn't a ringing endorsement for upsetting the nation's best team. These aren't the Badgers or Wolverines of yore, either, as they have already suffered six combined losses—five by a double-digit margin and one at home against Western Illinois.
As long as Denzel Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Deyonta Davis stay healthy, those are games the Spartans ought to win.
Travelling to Purdue, however, is quite the tall order. It's already a pretty slim chance that they'll get to February 9 without a loss, but it's exceedingly unlikely that they wake up on February 10 without one.
Whether they suffer one or seven losses this season, though, look for the Spartans to remain in the conversation for a No. 1 seed all year long. Those wins over Kansas, Louisville, Providence and Boise State aren't going anywhere, and they should pick up another solid nonconference win against Florida this weekend.
SMU Mustangs
10 of 10
Likely First Loss: February 18 at Connecticut
Other Potential Losses: December 29 at Tulsa, January 7 vs. Cincinnati, January 23 at Temple, February 13 vs. Gonzaga, March 6 at Cincinnati
Chance Undefeated on January 1: 33.1 percent*
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 6.5 percent*
Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 3-1
*SMU will play in the Las Vegas Classic in late December, likely resulting in a neutral-court game against Colorado that is not currently on the schedule. For the sake of argument, we're giving the Mustangs a 75 percent chance of winning that game.
Best of luck trying to tell SMU that the regular season doesn't matter, because the Mustangs are clearly out to make the most of all that they have.
As you've most likely heard at some point in the past few months, SMU is banned from postseason play. No NCAA tournament. No AAC tournament. No nothing. As was the case with Connecticut in 2012-13, the last game currently on SMU's schedule is actually the last game it will play.
Given the lack of strength on that schedule, at what point do we start vehemently arguing over whether a 30-0 SMU would officially go down in the record books as the first fully undefeated team since 1975-76 Indiana?
In this writer's opinion, there's no question that 38-1 Kentucky is a much more impressive feat than 30-0 SMU would be, but this will undoubtedly be a hot topic if and when the Mustangs get into late January or early February unscathed.
Regardless, this is a very good team. Even without star big man Markus Kennedy (ankle injury), SMU beat the tar out of Michigan on Tuesday, which was the last major hurdle between the Mustangs and the start of conference play. Nic Moore and Shake Milton have been excellent on the perimeter, and Texas Tech transfer Jordan Tolbert has been one of the best rebounders in the entire country.
They may not be eligible for the postseason, but the Mustangs have an eight-man rotation that would've been good enough to contend for a spot in the Elite Eight. It's a shame we won't get to find out how they would have fared in the Big Dance, but it's certainly going to be fun to find out how long they can last without suffering a loss.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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