Red Light, Green Light: Evaluating the NBA's Latest Rumors
The NBA rumor mill never stops churning out new ideas.
Players are always realizing they're on the block, finding themselves in a head coach's doghouse, moving ever closer toward disgruntled status or something else entirely that lights the interwebs on fire. It's as inevitable as the Golden State Warriors winning games, or Tim Duncan playing at a high level.
But not every rumor must be believed.
Each one can earn a green light (should be considered true), a yellow light (can be hesitantly trusted) or a red light (basically invalid), and it's our job to decide which color is most accurate.
Nick Young on the Block?
Swaggy P? More like Swaggy-DNP.
After playing just under 12 minutes against the Philadelphia 76ers to open December, Nick Young was a healthy scratch in back-to-back games. Following that, he got on the court for only 7:25 against the Detroit Pistons on Dec. 6, missing all three of his shots from the field, committing two personal fouls and making no other box-score contributions.
It's abundantly clear the volume-shooting wing has fallen out of favor with head coach Byron Scott and the rest of the Los Angeles Lakers coaching staff. And it probably didn't help that after finally receiving his latest chance to get on the court, Young let his frustration spill over, leading to this sequence with Anthony Tolliver:
"It's tough," Young said after the blowout loss to the Pistons had concluded, per ESPN.com's Baxter Holmes. "There's a lot of frustration. It's a struggle and it's building up."
Frustrated or not, getting ejected for a physical altercation when you're already falling out of the rotation probably isn't ideal. And as a result, it shouldn't be even remotely surprising that the rumors are beginning.
Well, beginning again. There were already some this summer, courtesy of the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina:
Now, we're just looking at the latest batch, this time from DYST Now's Mike Ortiz Jr.:
It's tough to doubt the validity here.
We know that Young has fallen out of favor, based on nothing more than his diminishing time on the court. We also know that he's had some choice words to say about his head coach in the past, even if Scott maintains that the DNPs Young received aren't indicative of a larger problem. Young recently calling the team "a circus act," per NBC Los Angeles' Shahan Ahmed, isn't exactly endearing to its ringleader.
Beyond that, he has an eminently tradable contract. He's still operating under the four-year, $21.5 million deal he signed with the Purple and Gold during July 2014, and even the escalating nature doesn't force teams to pay him anything more than peanuts under the new salary cap.
A bit less than $6 million per season is nothing more than a blip on the radar with money from the recent television deals flowing into the NBA's coffers.
Thus far, we don't have anything beyond speculation about where Young would end up. No legitimate rumors exist that link him to another one of The Association's 29 franchises. Frankly, none might emerge in the near future, since this wing has been a fairly toxic presence and hasn't played high-quality basketball this season—or the year before.
We can theorize that the Los Angeles Clippers or New Orleans Pelicans might be able to use his scoring ability off the bench. We can give our opinion that the Detroit Pistons or Cleveland Cavaliers might be better if he bought into their schemes and started connecting on his looks at a higher rate.
However, what's important here is that Young really does seem likely to be on the block in Los Angeles. He was already shopped around during the hottest months of the year, and nothing he's done since should make the front office desire to keep him any longer than it has to.
Verdict: Green Light
Disgruntled DeMarcus?
So far in the 2015-16 season, DeMarcus Cousins has averaged 25.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.4 blocks while shooting 40.8 percent from the field and 31.1 percent from beyond the arc. His player efficiency rating is an impressive 23, even if that stands well below the marks he's earned during each of the past two campaigns.
But problematically, the Sacramento Kings have only won seven of their first 22 games, sinking down toward the bottom of the Western Conference standings yet again. Despite the increased level of talent on the roster, the players have largely been disengaged on defense while failing to put together any sort of cohesive offensive system.
According to Cousins himself, as shared by Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee, he's at fault:
"Cousins said the Kings problem is him because he's "playing like sh*t"
— Jason Jones (@mr_jasonjones) December 7, 2015"
Obviously, that's a bit of an exaggeration. But Cousins hasn't been himself lately, and there's some worry that a balky back could be the root of the problem, leading to hindered movement and lowered levels of stamina. ESPN's Brian Windhorst has more, also noting that the big man refuses to use any injury as an excuse:
"Scouts who have followed the Kings recently have noticed he is not moving as well as he has in the past, and he often trails the play, which hints that he might be hurting or out of shape. Cousins missed three games last week because of a back injury but declined to blame his recent performance on his back.
'I don't want to make any excuses,' Cousins said. 'I've been playing like s---. No other excuse.'
"
It's easy to extrapolate from this.
Cousins has never had the strongest above-the-shoulders game, and his time in the NBA has been marked by near-constant clashes with coaches. He's taken entire possessions off before. He's found himself in omnipresent trade rumors—even this season, talks off him going to the Boston Celtics were bandied about after reports surfaced about "internal strife" with head coach George Karl. He's gotten suspended for his on-court behavior.
But while it's easy to extrapolate, that doesn't necessarily mean doing so is correct. At some point, this 25-year-old needs to be given the benefit of the doubt, especially because he has shown signs of maturity in the past calendar year. Even recently, he's said the right things about his play.
"I've never been in a stretch like this," he told Windhorst. "I have to stay positive, stay together and get in the gym. I know it's a mental thing right now. It's hard getting the rhythm when you're not seeing the ball go through the basket."
Before that, the dominant center requested a meeting between himself, Karl and Rajon Rondo. Rather than complaining publicly, he aired out his frustrations behind closed doors, and the meeting was a positive one, according to Marc J. Spears' report for Yahoo Sports:
"Following the meeting in Milwaukee, Karl is confident communication between the coaching staff and players would be improved. He added that he planned to have weekly meetings with Cousins and Rondo.
'We are going to continue to communicate on a weekly basis, good or bad,' Karl told Yahoo Sports. 'If we are in a good stretch, we are going to still communicate.'
"
How about Cousins also telling Spears the following about Rondo and the point guard's expiring contract: "He ain't going nowhere. I will kidnap him myself."
These aren't the remarks and actions of a disgruntled player who's looking to force his way out of an organization. Trendy as it may be to predict Cousins will eventually find himself on the trade block—and, for what it's worth, he would be an incredible fit with Brad Stevens' Celtics—there simply isn't enough evidence that such events will transpire.
Cousins is mired in a slump, and it's affected his effort levels on the court. That much is undeniable, though it remains possible he could be downplaying his nagging back issues. But what player hasn't gone through such a stretch at some point in his career?
Once the wins start coming—and they will, given how much talent Karl has at his disposal—everything will seem a lot more positive. Even while the losses pile up, don't read too much into Cousins' play.
Verdict: Red Light
Markieff Morris to the Houston Rockets?
According to ESPN's Marc Stein, the Houston Rockets have now emerged as a legitimate suitor for Phoenix Suns forward Markieff Morris, who is quickly falling out of favor in the desert:
"The Houston Rockets have trade interest in Phoenix Suns forward Markieff Morris, who made multiple trade demands this past offseason, according to league sources.
Sources told ESPN.com the Rockets are in the market for roster upgrades in the wake of their disappointing 10-11 start and have Morris on their list of targets, amid a growing belief around the league that the Suns are indeed prepared to finally move Morris.
"
Between the aforementioned trade demands that stemmed from the Phoenix Suns' dealing Marcus Morris to the Detroit Pistons, the shrinking playing time and the recent DNP-CD he received in a two-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Dec. 6, this one seems pretty obvious.
"He was a full participant in Suns warm-ups and was the bench player with the most vested reaction of disappointment when he grimaced and put his hands to his head after Brandon Knight's last-second turnover set up Memphis’ game-winning alley-oop," Paul Coro reported for AZCentral.com, also revealing that Morris declined to comment after the loss.
So, let's assume that Morris is legitimately on the block. Let's also assume that the Rockets want him and are willing to part with Terrence Jones, as Stein suggests. Now, it's time to turn to NBA 2K16 for some video-game analysis:
Unless the Rockets manage to convince Phoenix it should take on Ty Lawson's salary, this trade won't happen for a little while. Given Morris' contract, the Rockets basically have to send back Jones and either Trevor Ariza or Corey Brewer.
Ariza ain't happening, and Brewer can't be dealt until Jan. 14.
In your minds, fast forward a little over a month. Let's pretend that's when this exact trade takes place, occurring right as Brewer becomes eligible. What happens in this fairly even swap of talent?
First, let's look at the Suns with Jones on the roster:
At this stage of his career, Jones isn't quite the same player Morris has become. He doesn't space the court as well, but his ability to protect the paint from a forward spot is quite valuable. Plus, Phoenix is adding Corey Brewer in this scenario, which gives it an athletic option at small forward when it wants to add to the transition game.
To see what would happen with and without the trade, let's take a peek at how 2K16 simulates the next 10 games on the schedule. We'll run each contest 10 times with Morris on the team and 10 times with Jones and Brewer on the roster, compiling the records and seeing what changes.
| Jan. 15: Boston Celtics | 5-5 (T) | 3-7 (L) |
| Jan. 17: Minnesota Timberwolves | 2-8 (L) | 4-6 (L) |
| Jan. 19: Indiana Pacers | 5-5 (T) | 5-5 (T) |
| Jan. 21: San Antonio Spurs | 4-6 (L) | 3-7 (L) |
| Jan. 23: Atlanta Hawks | 6-4 (W) | 5-5 (T) |
| Jan 26: Philadelphia 76ers | 5-5 (T) | 5-5 (T) |
| Jan. 27: Cleveland Cavaliers | 2-8 (L) | 5-5 (T) |
| Jan. 29: New York Knicks | 4-6 (L) | 7-3 (W) |
| Jan. 31: Dallas Mavericks | 7-3 (W) | 9-1 (W) |
| Feb. 2: Toronto Raptors | 5-5 (T) | 9-1 (W) |
| Total | 45-55 (2-4-4) | 55-45 (3-3-4) |
If that's not enough proof, we can turn to net ratings in our virtual reality.
Though that's a tough stretch of games, the Suns still managed to raise their mark by 0.3 points per 100 possessions over the 10-outing slate, even without trading away Morris. Nonetheless, that improvement still pales in comparison to what happens after the swap. With Jones and Brewer on the roster, Phoenix's net rating rose by 1.5 in just 10 games.
But what would happen with Morris on the Rockets?
Donatas Motiejunas will still be a big part of the rotation after this hypothetical trade, but it's likely Morris would take over as the starting power forward. He'd be an excellent fit next to Dwight Howard, spacing out the court and creating his own offense when James Harden needs a break from carrying such a large portion of the scoring burden.
Losing Brewer might hurt, even if he's struggling to drain shots from anywhere on the court thus far. That's reflected in the 2K16 simulation, as the Rockets really don't do anything but tread water after making the deal:
| Jan. 15: Cleveland Cavaliers | 6-4 (W) | 6-4 (W) |
| Jan. 17: Los Angeles Lakers | 6-4 (W) | 8-2 (W) |
| Jan. 18: Los Angeles Clippers | 2-8 (L) | 4-6 (L) |
| Jan. 20: Detroit Pistons | 7-3 (L) | 6-4 (W) |
| Jan. 22: Milwaukee Bucks | 6-4 (W) | 6-4 (W) |
| Jan. 24: Dallas Mavericks | 5-5 (T) | 5-5 (T) |
| Jan. 25: New Orleans Pelicans | 6-4 (W) | 1-9 (L) |
| Jan. 27: San Antonio Spurs | 2-8 (L) | 1-9 (L) |
| Jan. 29: Oklahoma City Thunder | 2-8 (L) | 2-8 (L) |
| Jan. 30: Washington Wizards | 6-4 (W) | 9-1 (W) |
| Total | 48-52 (5-4-1) | 48-52 (5-4-1) |
Net rating tells a similar story, as there was literally no difference before and after the trade.
However, that may be a bit misleading.
It's tough for a video game to give appropriate grades to every member of the rotation, especially in situations where breakouts may occur. In real life, going from Brewer to K.J. McDaniels could actually be a positive, as the young wing's defensive energy should be contagious on a squad that often needs a kick in the you-know-what. Brewer hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire thus far.
But even without that accounted for, the Rockets aren't getting worse. They're maintaining their current abilities while opening up spots in the rotation for new pieces—ones who might possess more upside and eventually be able to help turn this disappointing season around.
What's not to love?
Verdict: Green Light
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Dec. 7's games.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
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