Heisman Watch 2015: Latest Odds and Predictions in Race for Top Award

At long last, the 2015 NCAA football regular season has come to a close, and with that, the bodies of work for this year's Heisman Trophy candidates are set in stone.

There is no clear-cut winner this year, as several excellent players can make a case for winning college football's most prestigious individual prize. Quarterbacks have dominated the Heisman runnings since the turn of the century, winning 13 times since 2000. The only two non-QBs to win the award in the last 15 years were both running backs: USC's Reggie Bush in 2005—a win he has since vacated—and Alabama's Mark Ingram in 2009.

Naturally, athletes from these two positions again dominate this year's list of potential winners.

The finalists for the 2015 Heisman Trophy will be announced Monday, with the ceremony coming up on Saturday, December 12 in New York City. 

Here are the latest odds in the Heisman chase, followed by some predictions on who might walk away with the stiff-arming trophy. Odds are courtesy of OddsChecker.com and updated as of Monday, December 7 at 7 a.m. ET. 

Player	Team	Odds
Derrick Henry	Alabama	3-10
Christian McCaffrey	Stanford	4-1
Deshaun Watson	Clemson	6-1
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	25-1

Heisman Predictions

Alabama running back Derrick Henry will win the Heisman Saturday in a ludicrously close race. He will narrowly edge Stanford's Christian McCaffrey, who in turn will come out just a few votes ahead of Clemson's Deshaun Watson. This isn't necessarily who should win the award (that's McCaffrey), but it's how things should shake out.

There are plenty of other worthy contenders, ones that could spread out the vote should they be named finalists.

Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield had his team playing better football than any other squad over the latter half of the season. Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott tore it up to the tune of 1,672 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. Navy's Keenan Reynolds is something of a people's champ, while Florida State's Dalvin Cook is criminally overlooked, as he averaged a ridiculous 7.9 yards per carry this season.

All that said, Henry, Watson and McCaffrey stood out above the rest. 

Watson leads the No. 1 team in the nation, didn't lose a game and established himself as perhaps the top dual-threat quarterback in the land. He put some excellent finishing touches on a standout season in leading the Tigers to a 45-37 win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game Saturday, throwing for three touchdowns while adding 131 rushing yards and another two scores on the ground.

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

"He's not just the best player in this conference. He's the best player in the country," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said, per ESPN.com's Chris Low. "If you sit down and watch all 13 games, I don't know how you can argue with that."

However, one can argue with that. Watson's passing profile isn't quite as illustrious as one might expect from a Heisman favorite. He's 16th in passing yards, ninth in touchdowns, 25th in yards per attempt and 12th in passer rating, per ESPN.com.

On the other hand, only two QBs had more rushing yards than Watson: Reynolds and Houston's Greg Ward Jr. It's a tough statistical profile to beat.

Watson's ability to make plays with both his legs and his arm was a boon for Clemson, but hey, McCaffrey made plays with his legs, arm and hands this season as the year's most versatile player. 

Here's McCaffrey providing Heisman voters with a nice end-of-season sizzle reel to remember by passing, running and throwing for a touchdown in Stanford's 41-22 win over USC in the Pac-12 title game, per Stanford Football: 

McCaffrey's season stats are truly amazing. He rushed for 1,847 yards and eight touchdowns while racking up 540 receiving yards and four more touchdowns. Oh, don't forget about the 1,109 yards and extra touchdown he piled up in the return game.

Those numbers aren't just eye-popping, they're record-breaking, per Bleacher Report CFB: 

Deadspin's Patrick Redford noted he's college football's best approximation of a Swiss army knife, and may actually have a better chance to win the award next year:

"

It’s not that he is the best player in the country, but Stanford’s offense is built around him to a unparalleled degree. He touched the ball 44 times last night, and the Cardinal move him all around the field. On this play, he’ll be in the backfield. On the next, he’ll be in the slot, or in the wildcat.

Next year, the team will lose longtime starter Kevin Hogan, but McCaffrey will be back. With a first-time starter at the helm, McCaffrey will get a clear shot to break his own record. Now that traditional powers Oregon and USC are heavily in transition, next year is a critical year in the Pac-12, and if McCaffrey can improve, Stanford could go a long way in establishing themselves for the rest of the decade.

"

The presence of Hogan on offense—he made it very difficult for teams to key in on the running game—and the fact that McCaffrey totaled only 13 touchdowns could lead to him losing the award to Henry.

Alabama's battering ram of a back led the nation in rushing (1,986) and scored 23 touchdowns despite playing in an offense that had a mediocre-at-best passing attack. He broke the single-season SEC rushing record, quite the feat considering the hoards of talented backs that have passed through the conference.

Per Marq Burnett of the Anniston Star, Henry toting the rock makes coach Nick Saban happy, which is almost impossible: 

Henry carried the ball 339 times this year. Jake Coker passed the ball just 338 times (although Cooper Bateman did add another 51 attempts to Alabama's ledger).

Some might use Henry's extremely high amount of carries as a reason he shouldn't win the title—several qualified backs did better than his 5.9 yards per carry—but it should really be seen as a testament to his consistency and power. Defenses knew what was coming week in and week out, but still couldn't stop it. 

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Henry's SEC championship performance wasn't quite the headline-grabber that McCaffrey's was, but it was still an excellent display. He carried the ball 44 times for 189 yards and a touchdowns against a Florida defense that came into the game ranked No. 7 against the rush. Henry almost single-handedly dropped them to No. 17 on Saturday.

There are cases against Henry, of course, and other running backs to consider. SB Nation's Ryan Nanni has a guy he likes better...sort of: 

Bleacher Report's Chris Palmer took a bit of the shine off of Henry's SEC championship performance: 

"

Against Florida: Dalvin Cook 26 carries, 183 yards; Derrick Henry 44 carries, 189 yards

— Chris Martin Palmer (@ChrisPalmerNBA) December 6, 2015"

As a mostly downhill runner, Henry also wasn't nearly as exciting as McCaffrey, who could pop up for big gains at any time in any facet of the game.

It really won't be easy to pick a winner this year, so voters' old biases toward the SEC over the likes of the ACC and Pac-12 might edge this one for Henry, even if the Southeastern Conference suffered through a down year overall.

The Big Ten was arguably the nation's best overall conference this year, so Elliott could get an invite for this reason. However, it's tough to imagine him overtaking the likes of McCaffrey or Henry as the best back in the nation in the minds of most voters. The cases for the other two are just too strong, and Elliott's own stats don't quite measure up.

Mayfield could take fourth, but he won't win the award due to the lack of a Big 12 Championship Game and Watson's superior rushing resume.