Valero Alamo Bowl 2016: Preview, Predictions for TCU vs. Oregon

It's the No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs taking on the surging No. 15 Oregon Ducks in the 2016 Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Saturday, Jan. 2. 

Despite being decimated by injuries, the Horned Frogs were able to finish the regular season at 10-2. Gary Patterson's team gets over a month to rest up for this one, and it should be as healthy as it's been all season. With quarterback Trevone Boykin among those on the mend, don't be shocked to see this team come out rolling.

But the Ducks are no pushover. Since starting the season 3-3, Oregon has ripped off six in a row. The return and emergence of quarterback Vernon Adams has helped, but it's sophomore running back Royce Freeman who has quietly carried this team back to relevance.

With both teams averaging over 40 points per game, we should have a shootout.

Tale of the Tape

As you can see, these are two teams that pile on the points and can do it in a variety of ways. There's just no good way to stop either team, and the pressure will be for both to keep pouring on the points.

The number that jumps out is in the turnover column. Oregon has given up a ton of points and yardage this season, but it has been able to take the ball away without committing crucial mistakes of its own. Let's see if that turns out to be the difference in this matchup.

Keys to Victory for TCU

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Doctson should be ready to rock after dealing with a broken wrist late in the season.

The Return of Josh Doctson

Injuries to Boykin and wide receiver Josh Doctson exposed TCU's issues, as the Horned Frogs lost the firepower to bail out their defense. Boykin (ankle) should be ready to rock, and he'll be happy to get his favorite target back for their final game together. Doctson's the only player in the nation who ranks in the top six in receiving yards per game, catches per game and receiving touchdowns.

Don't Give Up the Big Play

In each of TCU's two losses this season, a big play has broken the Horned Frogs' back. And when we say "big," we're talking 70-plus-yarders.

The Horned Frogs gave up four touchdowns of 40 yards or greater, including two that went for over 70, in their 49-29 loss to Oklahoma State. They tightened it up against Oklahoma, but Samaje Perine broke away for a 72-yard score that helped put the Sooners up 30-13.

Overall, the Horned Frogs have given up 21 plays of 40 yards or more this season, per CFBStats.com. They can't let that happen against an Oregon team that's thriving on the deep ball.

Keys to Victory for Oregon

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

Adams has been excellent at getting the ball downfield without making a crucial mistake.

Stick to What's Been Working

Scott Frost might be gone, but Oregon's formula for success shouldn't leave with him. The Ducks have ripped off this six-game winning streak by letting Adams take his shots down the field and turning Freeman loose on the ground. The way TCU struggles with big plays, any deviation from that attack would make zero sense.

Win the Turnover Battle

Per CFBStats.com, the Ducks finished the regular season with a plus-five turnover margin, which ranks 33rd in the country. They've been plus-three during the recent winning streak, losing the battle only once since Adams returned from injury. On the other hand, this team is minus-four in losses this year. 

You obviously want to win the turnover battle in every game you play. But the efficient way this team has gone about its business has changed the trajectory of its season. 

Keep Boykin in the Pocket

The Ducks have been among the best teams in the nation in getting to the quarterback, ranking ninth with three sacks per game, per CFBStats.com. Getting Boykin to the ground will be important, but he's at his most dangerous when he extends plays with his legs. Limit that, and he becomes much more manageable.

Players to Watch for TCU

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Freshman KaVontae Turpin has emerged as TCU's game-breaker as an all-purpose threat.

QB Trevone Boykin

As noted by SB Nation's Jamie Plunkett, Boykin's stats absolutely should keep him in the Heisman Trophy conversation. He's probably out of the race, but when he's been healthy, you can lock in the senior for over 400 yards of offense and a few touchdowns. Expect some more ridiculous numbers from his final collegiate game.

WR KaVontae Turpin

It doesn't take much for KaVontae Turpin to impact a game. The freshman averages over 12 yards on his 4.5 offensive touches per game, turning them into eight touchdowns on the year. He's also No. 22 in the nation in all-purpose yards, per CFBStats.com, chipping in on both punt and kick returns.

We're assuming Doctson will be active in this game. If not, expect the Frogs to feed the explosive young receiver as many touches as he can handle.

DE Josh Carraway

Oregon has been rolling of late, but it does have one glaring weakness: protecting the quarterback. Per CFBStats.com, the Ducks allow 2.92 sacks per game, which is 109th in the nation.

At 5'11", 205 pounds, Adams isn't built to take a pounding in the backfield. Defensive end Josh Carraway brings eight sacks into this one, and if the Frogs plan on limiting Adams' big-play ability, he needs to be active.

Players to Watch for Oregon

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Freeman has quietly become one of the best running backs in the nation.

RB Royce Freeman

Has anyone flown under the radar more than Freeman this season? Maybe it's because of Oregon's late-night games or slow start to the year, but the sophomore has been on a mission this season. Per CFBStats.com, Freeman ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game, and he has gone over 100 yards in eight straight.

Maybe a big game against TCU will make the nation realize just how good this guy is.

WR Darren Carrington

It's no coincidence that Oregon's surge has coincided with the return of its best receiver. Missing the first half of the season due to eligibility issues, Darren Carrington has put up 502 yards and five touchdowns on only 25 catches. His ability to get deep has allowed this offense to look like itself, and he's sure to get his opportunities against a leaky TCU secondary.

DE DeForest Buckner

He doesn't get the national attention he deserves, but DeForest Buckner has been a terror this season. The Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year is top 25 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss, and he's also piled up 76 tackles on the year.

CBS Sports' Rob Rang has Buckner creeping near the top 10 on his draft board. Let's see if the defensive end can justify that in San Antonio.

What They're Saying

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Once again, Patterson has bucked the odds to field a defense that's playing way above its talent level.

TCU

USA Today's Dan Wolken on what a win could mean for TCU, which is still considered a non-major program: "If TCU wins its bowl game, it will likely post a sixth top-10 finish in the last 10 years. That is incredible. Gary Patterson is a witch."

Patterson's most recent comments on Doctson's status, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Mac Engel on Twitter [sic]: "Gary Patterson says josh doctson out for year. Maybe back for bowl game."

Oregon

The Solid Verbal reminded us that, even before the team found itself, Oregon hung with No. 3 Michigan State until the final seconds early this season: "You could have a pretty fun playoff of teams who were three seconds away from beating Michigan State: 1. Iowa 2. Ohio St 3. Oregon 4. Mich[.]"

The Statesman Journal's Pete Martini put Freeman's season into perspective:

"

Through 12 games this season, Freeman rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 of them, and he is averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

Freeman’s season-high came Oct. 10, when he rushed for 246 yards in a home loss to Washington State. He also scored three touchdowns in that game.

Freeman’s worst rushing game came Sept. 26 in a home loss to Utah, in which he rushed for 77 yards. In that game, he also had 46 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.

[...]

Freeman’s 1,706 yards currently ranks fifth on Oregon’s all-time single-season list, and if he can rush for 100 yards in the bowl game, he will surpass James (1,805) into the top spot.

"

Prediction

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Boykin should be able to feast on an Oregon defense that hemorrhages yardage to its opponents.

The way these two offenses score, this is a game that's eventually going to come down to who can get a stop. With a month to get healthy, that's TCU.

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Matthew Martinez gave a quick rundown of TCU's injuries this season. In addition to Boykin and Doctson, the Horned Frogs have been destroyed on the defensive side of the ball, thrusting two true freshmen into starting duty at cornerback.

And that's what makes the following statistic delivered by Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer so astounding: "How good is Gary Patterson? Despite all those injuries, TCU held seven of nine Big 12 teams to 10 points or less in the second half."

One of those opponents was No. 4 Oklahoma, which has been steamrolling teams since its inexplicable loss to Texas.

Adams, Freeman and the rest of the Oregon offense have been tremendous. But the Ducks' play on the other side of the ball is still troubling. This group ranks 98th or worse in scoring defense, red-zone defense, yards per carry allowed and yards per pass allowed.

Against a healthy Boykin—and probably Doctson—that's a disaster waiting to happen. TCU's defense will be able to get enough stops, and the Horned Frogs will pull away late.

TCU 49, Oregon 38

Unless otherwise noted, all stats and information courtesy of GoFrogs.com and GoDucks.com.