Outback Bowl 2016: Preview, Predictions for Tennessee vs. Northwestern

Sunday was a "G'day" for the Tennessee Volunteers and Northwestern Wildcats, which parlayed their rebound seasons into an Outback Bowl berth to open the new year.

It's been 19 years since the last time the Vols and Wildcats met in a Florida bowl game on New Year's Day. That was back in 1997 when Peyton Manning-led UT trounced Northwestern and star running back Darnell Autry, 48-28 in the Citrus Bowl.

Tennessee will try to duplicate that dominance when the two teams meet again.

It won't be easy to dispatch the 12th-ranked Wildcats, whose coach Pat Fitzgerald was a Nagurski Award-winning linebacker on the NU team that lost to UT.

Both teams enjoyed returns to the national spotlight in 2015. For the 8-4 Vols, it was just another step forward after last year's 7-6 campaign ended with a lopsided win over Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl. They won five straight to close the season on a high note and be a hot commodity for bowls.

"If you look at how long it's been, you start the playing the 'How long's it been' game, there are a lot of very positive things to talk about at the end of this regular season," UT athletic director Dave Hart told GoVols247's Wes Rucker. "It's been since 2005, 2006, 2007 since we've been able to have a lot of these discussions we're having about the progress of our football program."

The Wildcats haven't struggled as long as Tennessee, but following a 10-3 2012 season, coach Pat Fitzgerald's squad tossed up consecutive 5-7 campaigns before rebounding nicely this year with a 10-2 mark.

They don't do much flashy, but they win football games. That's really the same sort of mentality UT has taken as the season progressed as well. This has the trappings of being an intriguing postseason matchup.

Date: Friday, Jan. 1, 2016

Time: Noon ET

Place: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

TV: ESPN2

Radio: Vol Network, Northwestern Sports Network

Tale of the Tape

Several things can be gleaned from the above infographic, but one of the biggest things is that Northwestern's offense simply must be better than it has been in order to beat the Vols.

While the Wildcats are scoring 84 percent of the time they get in the red zone, Tennessee is a respectable 23rd nationally in red-zone defense. Most of those times Northwestern does score, it comes in threes and not sixes, as well.

The Vols struggle in pass defense, but Northwestern hasn't been able to generate many yards through the air this season, which will be a necessity in this game. Both teams are strong running the ball and in stopping the run, so it's going to be interesting to see which one capitalizes on scoring opportunities.

The team that can parlay drives into touchdowns rather than field goals will win the game.

Tennessee Keys to Victory

Patrick Murphy-Racey/Getty Images

DeBord, Dobbs and drawing it up

There's no question Tennessee has played its best football throughout the season in the first half when it appears offensive coordinator Mike DeBord is running through his scripted plays.

UT outscored opponents 252-112 in the first half over the course of the season versus just 160-142 afterward. 

What does that mean for the bowl game?

With all the time off, Tennessee will get a longer period of game to scheme for what Northwestern likes to do defensively. That's a positive for DeBord, who has a lot more speedy playmakers at his disposal than the Wildcats. Putting them in position for big plays is something he has to do.

If DeBord can duplicate the play-calling performance that UT former offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian did against the Hawkeyes last year, the Vols will be successful.

"They were ready right from the start," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told the Florida Times-Union's Don Coble after the loss to UT to start 2015. "We certainly couldn't match their tempo in that first quarter. Give them credit. They played a really good football game. I'd venture to say the best they played all year."

The key to everything is quarterback Joshua Dobbs. How he goes, the team goes, and he was banged up for much of the past month of the season. The month off will give Dobbs' foot time to heal, and he should be his old, electrifying dual-threat self against Northwestern.

If Dobbs can be the weapon he was against Florida and Georgia, it'll be tough for the Wildcats to find the athletes to stop him.

R and R

When you're a young program still not as deep in most positions as you'd like to be, the wear and tear of a regular season bogs your players down. That was especially the case for an injury-riddled Vols this year.

So it's no surprise that after the late-season bye week and again after the breather game against North Texas, UT looked fresh-legged. It's because the Vols were.

Getting a month off will be massive for Tennessee, just as it was in 2014. 

Last year, players such as outside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and running back Jalen Hurd looked like brand-new players against Iowa. The SEC speed difference was blatantly obvious, and UT used it to shock the Hawkeyes.

They'll try to use the same formula against Northwestern. A key for Tennessee is to use this month to get healthy, get well and try to bring some youngsters up to speed. This could be another big breakout for UT.

Smothered and covered

Though Vanderbilt enjoyed a brief offensive revival in the first half of a 53-28 Vols win, Tennessee's defense has been very good for the most part during the last six weeks of the season.

A light clicked at halftime of a comeback win over Georgia, carried over into a 19-14 loss to Alabama, and Tennessee's defense carried the Vols at times down the stretch. The only real lapse was the first half against VU and the third quarter in a narrow win over South Carolina.

Tennessee's defensive re-emergence coincided with defensive end Derek Barnett's surge back to stardom. He had seven sacks through the season's final six games and became a pass-rushing wrecking ball.

Coordinator John Jancek dialed up more blitzes, UT shored things up on the back end, and the Vols linebackers flew around the ball. They have the ability to make things difficult on Northwestern, but they have to play the way they did during the second part of the year rather than the beginning.

Northwestern Keys to Victory

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Red-zone turnaround

The biggest struggle for Northwestern's team this year is one with which the Vols can commiserate. 

Tennessee fans grumbled about a 56.7 touchdown percentage once the Vols got in the red zone. Think about how the Wildcats feel. Once they got inside the 20, Pat Fitzgerald's team came away with six points just 39.4 percent of the time. That number is by far worst in the Big 10.

The issues began way back in a shocking win over Stanford. It has been a season-long battle, as evidenced by this article from Medill Reports Chicago's Jordan Ray prior to the Minnesota game, which was the fifth game of the year.

"Obviously, we've struggled a little bit, and we're not happy with where we are as far as our red zone efficiency," senior guard Shane Mertz told Ray, "but we're working, and we will fix that."

While more trips did occur, the touchdowns never really came with any consistency. Redshirt freshman quarterback Clayton Thorson improved as the year went on, and his mobility should be a major asset once Northwestern gets inside the 20.

The Wildcats must start taking advantage of the opportunities to beat the Vols.

Cut off the three-headed orange monster

Northwestern's team strength lies in its defense and specifically in stopping the run.

The Wildcats boast the nation's seventh-ranked scoring defense, allowing just 16.4 points per game. Though they shut down Stanford in a 16-6 win to start the season, the Wildcats also struggled in stopping Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska from scoring.

In those games, NU allowed 201 rushing yards to the Wolverines and 294 to Iowa, though it held the Cornhuskers to just 82. Still, the Wildcats boasted the 14th-ranked rush defense nationally, allowing fewer than 118 yards per contest.

This game should be strength vs. strength, and the winner of that test of wills should walk away from the Outback Bowl victoriously. The Vols are going to try to run the football with Jalen Hurd, Alvin Kamara and quarterback Joshua Dobbs. They aren't going to stop trying.

Northwestern hasn't faced a signal-caller with the wheels of Dobbs all season, and that is going to be a tall task. If the Wildcats can overcome it and make UT pass the ball, that plays right into their hands.

Hit some big passing-game plays

With the way Tennessee's front seven played during the final few games of the year, it's going to be difficult for Justin Jackson (who rushed for 1,344 yards this season) to take over the football game.

That's why Thorson must move the ball downfield some throwing the football.

The freshman has done plenty of nice things this year to excite Northwestern fans about his future potential, but he has just seven touchdowns against seven interceptions. That's not his only real limitation, as documented by Inside NU's Tristan Jung's mostly glowing article about Thorson:

"

Thorson's completion percentage was only 51.6 percent, and he has to become a more accurate passer in order for Northwestern's offense to succeed. Whether this means improving his arm strength, gaining more experience with reading opposing defenses, or simply just tightening his throwing motion, Thorson will have to work on his accuracy this offseason. Lastly, Thorson could benefit from throwing downfield more often, as his yards per attempt was only 5.33. Thorson has the ability to throw an accurate deep ball, and he hit several deep passes this season, most recently against Illinois. Hopefully Mike McCall will open up the offense to take advantage of Thorson's arm in the future.

"

The Vols have limped along at times on the back end of their defense, allowing chunk-yardage plays through the air. The teams who've been able to take advantage of those holes give them fits, so it's essential that offensive coordinator McCall draws up ways to do that.

Tennessee Players to Watch

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Joshua Dobbs

Tennessee's dual-threat junior quarterback is special with the ball in his hands, even if he isn't great when the ball leaves it.

Signal-callers need to be able to pass the football, and Dobbs hasn't been consistently strong in that area this season, though he's not been as timid throwing the ball downfield as of late. But when Dobbs tucks and runs, few in the nation are better.

Not only does he have the speed to get around the edge, he runs with the kind of force that carries teams in vital moments. He is the player UT turns to when it is facing important plays. 

How important is he to Tennessee? In the Vols' four losses, Dobbs completed 56 of 106 passes (53 percent) for 611 yards (153 avg.), two touchdowns and one interception. In their eight wins, he completed 135 of 213 passes (63 percent) for 1,514 yards (189 avg.), 13 touchdowns and four interceptions.

If he struggles, Tennessee loses. He desperately needs to have a big game.

Jalen Hurd/Alvin Kamara

It's impossible to pick just one of these guys.

Along with Dobbs, Hurd and Kamara pretty much constitute Tennessee's run-oriented offense.

Hurd is a 6'4", 240-pound sophomore who is the Vols' workhorse, getting carry after carry and getting stronger as opposing defenses wear down. Yes, he has the athletic ability to break one every now and then, but he's the methodical mauler. 

Then there's Kamara, a former Alabama player and JUCO transfer who burst onto the scene this year and is used as the Vols' change-of-pace weapon. As the season wore on, offensive coordinator Mike DeBord realized he needed to be getting the dynamic athlete more touches.

As those came, so did the "Wow!" moments. 

Between them, they've combined for 2,265 offensive yards and 23 touchdowns. It's hard to stop all three prongs of the three-headed attack.

Jalen Reeves-Maybin

Irreplaceable.

That may be the most important description of any single football player, and it fits Tennessee junior outside linebacker Reeves-Maybin to a T. 

The Clarksville, Tennessee, native emerged as a playmaker last season after starting his career as a special teams dynamo. This year, all he's done is develop into a household name around the SEC.

He leads the Vols in tackles with 99, tackles for loss with 13, forced fumbles with two and fumble recoveries with a pair more. He also has five sacks, lives around the football and makes plays with drives (and games) on the line.

He will be all over the field against Northwestern, and the Wildcats had better game-plan for him. If they don't, he will have 15 tackles and gobble up runners left and right.

Northwestern Players to Watch

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Justin Jackson

The second-team All-Big 10 honoree is going to be a worthy opponent for a Tennessee defense that has been playing much better as of late.

The 5'11", 190-pound sophomore running back from Carol Stream, Illinois, produced 1,344 yards on a 4.5 average for the Wildcats this season, which was the eighth-highest single-season mark in school history. In just two years, he's sixth on Northwestern's all-time rushing list.

He also proved he could be a workhorse, carrying the ball 37 times for 172 yards and a touchdown in a 24-14 season-ending win over Illinois.

Though he only had four rushing touchdowns this season, he has the attitude you love about the lack of scoring, according to an interview with the Daily Northwestern's Alex Putterman. When Northwestern got down there, a bigger back or Clayton Thorson would usually strike paydirt.

"

I had chances that I didn’t get in. But obviously (fellow running back) Warren (Long) is a 210-pound guy, great lower body, great hip drive, great finisher, great short-yardage guy. And so he finished some runs that I couldn't, and that’s something that helped our team win some games. He had four or five touchdowns on the year, which was huge for us, and a lot of them were down at the goal line when we really needed to score in some big games. So I’m really proud of him … It doesn't really matter if I got a touchdown or he got a touchdown, as long as we got a touchdown and it helped our team. 

"

Dan Vitale

The pass-catching senior star plays the "superback" position at Northwestern, and though he didn't post huge numbers, he also was recognized as a second-team all-conference selection because of how vital he is to the Wildcats.

Vitale finished the year with 33 catches for a team-high 355 receiving yards and four touchdowns. When Thorson needs a big play, he normally looks in the direction of Vitale, who was lauded as a tight end on the all-conference list, though he projects as a fullback on the next level.

He will get an opportunity to showcase those skills at the Senior Bowl, where he accepted an invitation to play. 

Somebody with Vitale's skill set is going to be a unique challenge for the Vols, who play in a league that doesn't really utilize many H-back-type players. So, that's going to be something for defensive coordinator John Jancek to throw some added wrinkles toward.

Anthony Walker Jr.

The best player on Northwestern's entire roster is going to be a player the Vols must account for every time they get the football.

The 6'1", 235-pound sophomore linebacker likely has a long NFL career ahead of him after his time at NU, but he still has at least another year of college to wreak havoc on offenses everywhere. His No. 1 priority will be making things difficult on Jalen Hurd and company.

He's up to the challenge.

Walker led the team with 113 tackles, including 19.5 for a loss and also registered four sacks. He was fifth in the Big Ten in tackles and tied Penn State's Carl Nassib for the league lead in stops behind the line of scrimmage. He's going to be a star for at least another couple of years before heading to the NFL.

Walker should be all over the field for the Wildcats, and he is one of the best defensive players in the entire country.

What They're Saying

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Outback Bowl President and CEO Jim McVay told the Knoxville News-Sentinel's Dustin Dopirak this week that Tennessee had everything the bowl wanted in a participant.

"Tennessee, if you go right down our checklist, they hit everything," McVay said. "They're just one of those teams. They have tradition, and success, and the way these guys play, wow. Everything about Tennessee has a really great feel to it right now. Five straight wins and six out of their last seven. That team is really on fire."

Outback Bowl communications director Mike Schulze told Medill Reports Chicago's Jordan Ray that Northwestern is attractive for a number of reasons, namely head coach Pat Fitzgerald.

"Coach Fitzgerald is one of the best coaches in the country, has done an awesome job there and is great to work with," Schulze said.

Speaking of Fitzgerald, he and Tennessee coach Butch Jones are friends, so this will be a good matchup for the two. As for where the Wildcats are ranked (12th), the fiery coach who is a former Northwestern standout had some strong words about rankings following his team's season-ending win over Illinois.

He thinks they should be higher, according to the Daily Northwestern's Alex Putterman. If the Wildcats are better than the Cardinal right now as they were earlier in the season, the Vols are in for a battle.

"

I saw a team ranked X spots ahead of us that we beat. I just don't get it. Pop on the tape and watch the film. Our kids dominated that game. …I'm tired of hearing about that it was early in the morning. I'm tired of it. I'm not tired of it for me, I'm tired of it for those kids, who have been through a lot and feel like they're getting disrespected. Pop on the video. We dominated the line of scrimmage, we dominated that football game.

"

Jones talked to Volquest's John Brice this week about how the offense evolved under first-year coordinator Mike DeBord throughout the year to become one that had plenty of firepower late.

"

That's the whole key, you want to continue to grow and elevate your schemes. That (option) is something we've had in our scheme for a long period of time, but we wanted to make sure that it was game-ready. We have that with a lot of schemes that we'll start seeing here and in the bowl game. It's a tribute to our players because they are able to execute it. …It [the playbook] continues to grow. Like I said, it's based on the volume of what our players can handle. But right now we have more inventory of plays than we have ever had.

"

Prediction

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

This has the potential to be a very intriguing matchup, but it's just the kind of ranked, quality opponent the Volunteers need to beat to reannounce their arrival among the better teams in the college football world to close the season.

Yes, the Big Ten wound up full of teams that posted big win totals, played consistent, disciplined football and built strong resumes off defense and running the football, and Northwestern is a perfect pillar of all that.

But the Vols are able to do all of that too, and they've got superior speed and talent.

Rather than let an early season full of disappointment derail their season, the Vols learned from blown, gut-punch losses to Oklahoma and Florida as well as a setback to Arkansas. They built on those frustrations, and they improved from the situations.

Now, the Vols are a battle-tested team. Two of the four teams they lost to are among the four teams standing for the national championship. Florida represented the SEC East in the SEC Championship Game and won 10 games. The Razorbacks are one of the most dangerous teams in the country.

And UT had late leads on all four before losing them by a combined 17 points. 

Nobody likes moral victories, but it just shows how close this season was to being special. Instead, it was a pretty good one that has the chance to end strong with a nine-win campaign gearing up for a 2016 season where the Vols look strong across the board.

Northwestern isn't a pushover, either. The Wildcats shut down Stanford 16-6 to start the season. Though they struggled in lopsided losses to Michigan and Iowa, they handled business everywhere else. That defense is going to be a tough one for UT to figure out.

Still, in the end, the Vols should win this one fairly comfortably.

Prediction: Tennessee 31, Northwestern 17