49ers vs. Bears: What's the Game Plan for San Francisco?
Two sub-.500 teams will square off in Week 13 as the San Francisco 49ers (3-8) and Chicago Bears (5-6) prepare for Sunday's matchup at Soldier Field.
But both teams are trending in different directions.
San Francisco is coming off a tough home loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week, while Chicago enjoyed a surprising road victory over its rival, the Green Bay Packers. With that win, the Bears still have an outside shot at making the postseason.
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The 49ers will also be facing their former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, secondary coach Ed Donatell and head coaching candidate Adam Gase—all now working for the Bears.
Fangio and Donatell may know a thing or two about the personnel on San Francisco's roster despite the wholesale turnover that took place with the 49ers during the offseason. But whether or not that makes a significant difference Sunday is anyone's guess.
Head coach Jim Tomsula will look to overcome any such advantages and get his team playing decently on the road—something that hasn't happened this season.
What should fans expect out of San Francisco's efforts, both offensively and defensively, during this Week 13 bout?
Offensive Game Plan
Despite the installation of quarterback Blaine Gabbert as the 49ers' No. 1 signal-caller, San Francisco's offense still ranks dead last in the NFL in total points (152) and all-purpose yards (3,250).
Gabbert has shown the ability to avoid sacks, despite taking two critical takedowns in Week 12, and maintain a better poise within the pocket. But red-zone woes and third-down conversions have still been problematic for the offense as of late.
The 49ers were 0-of-9 on third-down attempts versus Arizona.
This deficiency may not entirely be on the hands of Gabbert. Rather, the play-calling under offensive coordinator Geep Chryst should be questioned.
Here, the 49ers face a 3rd-and-long play needing to get to Arizona's 12-yard line for a first down. Gabbert will have five receiving options at his disposal. But even a casual observation of the pending routes suggests the offense will have only one option for a first-down play:
Take a look at the play as the route develops. Gabbert completes a pass underneath—well short of the first-down marker:
Granted, there aren't too many good options on 3rd-and-long plays. And it makes sense to let your receivers make a play in open space to pick up additional yards after the catch. But it would have been nice to see an additional option on the other side of the field take one or more of the Cardinals defenders deep.
Trying to execute this sort of approach won't be easy against Chicago's secondary.
The Bears have the second-best pass defense in the league with just 2,360 yards allowed through the air. And Chicago's crop of defensive backs grades out considerably well, according to Pro Football Focus:
| Adrian Amos | 728 | +4.4 | +3.5 | -0.8 |
| Kyle Fuller | 721 | +4.7 | +2.7 | +0.8 |
| Tracy Porter | 545 | +2.5 | -0.5 | +3.3 |
| Antrel Rolle | 398 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Sherrick McManis | 258 | -8.7 | -2.1 | -7.1 |
| Bryce Callahan | 238 | -0.1 | +1.5 | -2.1 |
Bears cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Tracy Porter are having solid seasons. And the Chicago pass rush is formidable enough with edge-rushers Lamarr Houston and Pernell McPhee leading the way with five sacks apiece.
To combat this, San Francisco will need to be effective on the ground.
Running back Shaun Draughn will have a chance to take advantage of a suspect Bears rushing defense that ranks No. 29 in the league with 1,414 yards allowed on the ground and 4.8 yards per carry.
Draughn is averaging 3.4 yards per carry but could see that number increase given Chicago's problems here.
Getting the ground game going will be critical in avoiding 3rd-and-long plays as well as setting up play action—an example of which can be seen courtesy of the 49ers Twitter account on this reception by wide receiver Torrey Smith for 41 yards:
And don't be surprised to see Gabbert continue to use tight ends in the red zone. San Francisco's lone end-zone score last week came on a 19-yard touchdown completion on a route by tight end Vance McDonald.
A strong running game, combined with a more-aggressive approach from Chryst, should put the 49ers in a better position to increase their lowly 13.8 points-per-game total.
Defensive Game Plan
While not as bad as San Francisco, the Bears have endured their own share of offensive problems 13 weeks into the season.
Chicago's offense ranks No. 25 in the league with 231 points scored—an average of 21 points per game.
The Bears do have a number of weapons at the disposal of quarterback Jay Cutler. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery leads Chicago's receiving targets in yards with 605. And fellow wideout Marquess Wilson is right behind him with 464.
Cutler's favorite target has been tight end Martellus Bennett, who leads the offense with 50 catches on 76 targets.
Moving the ball through the air will be a primary objective of Chicago's offense Sunday. With running back Matt Forte averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and backup Jeremy Langford averaging just 3.3, Cutler and the passing game will have to be a primary focus.
| TE Martellus Bennett | 50 | 425 | 8.5 | 3 |
| WR Alshon Jeffery | 43 | 605 | 14.1 | 2 |
| WR Marquess Wilson | 28 | 464 | 16.6 | 1 |
| TE Zach Miller | 15 | 222 | 14.8 | 4 |
| WR Josh Bellamy | 12 | 142 | 11.8 | 1 |
San Francisco's secondary hasn't exactly been stellar this season and ranks No. 26 in the league with a minus-24.4 pass-coverage grade, according to PFF.
To negate this, the 49ers defense will look to pressure Cutler as frequently as possible while not allowing Forte and Langford to establish the run.
Cutler has been sacked 15 times on the season, but the Bears have allowed 19 quarterback hits and 114 quarterback hurries, per PFF.
Bears O-lineman Charles Leno has been the primary culprit here with a minus-13.7 pass-blocking grade. Look for linebacker Aaron Lynch, who leads the 49ers with 6.5 sacks, to be a factor against Leno in the pass rush.
Blitzing might also be an effective technique against Cutler and the offense. According to PFF, Cutler's passer rating drops from 98.2 to 82.5 when blitzed. So expect defensive coordinator Eric Mangini to increase some of the pressure in Leno's direction.
Doing this may also negate the possibility of Cutler finding tight end Zach Miller, who has emerged as the Bears' best red-zone option this season with four touchdowns.
The 49ers will likely employ a safety/linebacker combination in this area to prevent Miller from having an impact.
Key Players and Matchups
The 49ers will need to get production out of Draughn and the running game in order to have any sort of chance to pull away with their first road victory of the season.
Thankfully, the Bears run defense isn't that good. And this should open up enough opportunities for Draughn to rip off some nice carries.
With Draughn and an effective passing game, San Francisco will look to get away from 3rd-and-long situations and improve on its woeful third-down conversion efforts in Week 13.
Wide receivers Smith and Anquan Boldin will be fun to watch against Porter and Fuller, but look for Chryst's offense to get a little more out of No. 3 wideout Quinton Patton this game. He has just 20 receptions for 250 yards this season but could be an X-factor should the offense spread things out.
And can McDonald continue to be a reliable target for Gabbert as he has been in the previous two games?
Defensively, the 49ers won't want a repeat of their run-defensive efforts versus the Seattle Seahawks when running back Thomas Rawls rushed for 209 yards. On the road, San Francisco is giving up an average of 151.8 rushing yards compared to 95.5 at home.
Still, the passing offense remains the primary threat. Lynch vs. Leno will be a matchup to watch if the 49ers pass rush is to be effective.
Can San Francisco's pass defense contain Miller in the red zone and not let Jeffery impact the game as he's done so many times?
Prediction
Unfortunately, the 49ers haven't shown they can win on the road. Aside from their Sunday Night Football contest against the New York Giants, the 49ers have been all but blown out away from Levi's Stadium this year.
It's hard to predict any changes happening in Week 13. And the Bears' Week 12 victory over Green Bay, combined with the added rest and preparation since playing on Thanksgiving, gives Chicago even more of an edge here.
Can the 49ers pull off an upset?
If they play near-perfect football and execute a solid game plan on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, yes.
But San Francisco has yet to do this sort of thing with any regularity.
It's doubtful the 49ers go to 4-8 on the season, and a 24-17 win in favor of the Bears looks about right.
All statistics, injury reports, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a Featured Columnist covering the San Francisco 49ers for Bleacher Report. Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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