Baltimore is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games against the AFC East. Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last seven spots following consecutive defeats. Two 4-7 teams clinging to the slimmest of playoff hopes meet when the Dolphins host the Ravens on Sunday in Miami.
Point Spread: The Dolphins opened as 4.5-point favorites. The total was 44 early in the week.
Odds Shark Computer Pick: Dolphins 24.7, Ravens 19.8
Why the Ravens Can Cover the Spread
After a 1-6 start, Baltimore has won three of its last four games and should be 4-0 over that span after winning a crazy 33-27 game in Cleveland on Monday night.
With backup quarterback Matt Schaub making his first start in almost two seasons in place of the injured Joe Flacco, the Ravens grabbed an early 17-3 lead, lost it, regained it, increased it, let the Browns tie it, then won the game on a blocked field-goal return for a touchdown as time ran out.
For the night, Baltimore rushed for 104 yards to Cleveland's 63 yards, as Justin Forsett's replacements (Javorius Allen and Terrance West) combined to produce 92 yards on 19 carries.
Meanwhile, Schaub hit on 20 of 34 throws for 232 yards and two touchdowns, although he also threw two interceptions, including a pick-six.
Over their last four games, the Ravens' only loss came on a last-second field goal against Jacksonville. If they would have held on to win that game, they'd only be a game out in the AFC wild-card race.
Why the Dolphins Can Cover the Spread
Miami showed some life right after the change at head coach earlier this season, winning three of five games, but it has lost two in a row after falling 38-20 to the Jets last week.
The Dolphins drove into New York's red zone on their second possession of the day, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw an interception, and things just went downhill from there.
Miami won its first two games under interim coach Dan Campbell by out-rushing Tennessee and Houston by a combined 294 yards. A few weeks later, the Dolphins out-rushed the Eagles in a come-from-behind victory in Philly.
So it would appear the key to success for Miami is getting the running game going—and perhaps trying to stop the run.
The Dolphins are a total mess right now. They can't run the ball, stop the run and basically just don't seem too interested in what happens from here on out this season. At least Baltimore is showing some interest. The smart money here resides with the Ravens.
- The Ravens are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Dolphins.
- The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in December.
- The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the AFC East.