Bowl Projections 2015: Latest Predictions for CFP Final and Most Dangerous Teams

With just a weekend of conference championships ahead before the final rankings release for the College Football Playoff, the postseason picture is shaping a sturdy mold that—dare to dream—may avoid great dispute.

Four teams in action this weekend control their own destiny and can clinch a spot among the top four by winning their respective conference title games. Such is the case for No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Michigan State. The latter pair will sort things out in their meeting for the Big Ten crown in what amounts to a play-in game.

Then there are a slew of squads that need a heap of help to reach the top four. No. 8 Ohio State, No. 9 Stanford and even No. 14 North Carolina may all have cases should catastrophe hit the current quartet at the top.

With the penultimate rankings set to release Tuesday, here are the latest polls from the Associated Press, coaches and Bleacher Report released Sunday, and predictions for how things will sort out:

Predictions

COTTON BOWL — No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

Clemson survived the regular season unblemished for the first time since its national title season in 1981. All that stands in the Tigers’ way from taking the top seed to the playoff is North Carolina, winners of 11 straight.

The Tar Heels won’t be a cakewalk such as the Tigers’ three games since defeating No. 13 Florida State, but Clemson should win if it continues to play on par with its performances thus far.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson is as good as any in the country, but he’ll be facing arguably the stiffest secondary he’s seen all season. Under first-year defensive coordinator Gene Chizik and with the emergence of cornerbacks Des Lawrence and M.J. Stewart, the Tar Heels have improved from 105th to 19th in pass defense.

David M. Hale of ESPN.com argued that the matchup poses unfavorably for Watson and company given their past play against similar foes:

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And all this is a problem for Clemson because the most successful defenses this season—think Louisville and Notre Dame—forced the Tigers to play conservatively by playing top-down coverage and taking the big play away. UNC can do that, too.

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But rather than look at North Carolina as a threat, Clemson should instead treat the ACC Championship Game as a formidable warmup for the playoff. Since defeating FSU, the Tigers have played Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina, which are a combined 10-26, yet they have shown a few of Clemson’s vulnerable spots.

Winning against a convincing opponent should give Clemson the catapult it needs when it takes on the fourth-ranked team in the Cotton Bowl—likely Oklahoma.

The Sooners solidified their playoff spot by claiming the Big 12 outright with a dominating win over No. 6 Oklahoma State. They were third in the latest CFP rankings, but don’t be surprised if they drop a spot should Michigan State win convincingly over Iowa in the Big Ten title game.

Oklahoma has positioned itself wonderfully in the second half, consistently lurking in the rearview while continuing to win. Their backloaded schedule paid off swimmingly, as the Sooners downed Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks and in convincing fashion.

Since last Thanksgiving, the Sooners have gone from has-been to perennial threat. They eerily resemble an NFL wild-card team or low-seeded squad in March Madness that sneaks in late and goes on a tear, as Dan Wolken of USA Today described:

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Just a year ago, Oklahoma seemed to be teetering on the edge of irrelevance. Its offense was stale and its defense was too often overwhelmed against no-huddle teams. Baylor and TCU were the Big 12's new normal, while it had been half a decade since Oklahoma truly contended for a national title. It felt like [head coach Bob] Stoops, for all his success over so many years, might finally be fading.
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The more important thing, though, is that Oklahoma has dramatically improved throughout the course of the season. The Sooners now have a long wait until Dec. 31, but Oklahoma's final statement Saturday was both a redemption story and a warning. This is the team nobody wants to face right now.

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Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports echoed that sentiment:

Oklahoma’s lone loss to archrival Texas seems like ages ago. If the Sooners get in, they’ll be the most dangerous team as one that largely flew under the radar all season.

ORANGE BOWL — No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State

Michigan State survived a scare when star quarterback Connor Cook went down with an injury to his throwing shoulder. The Spartans showed gritty resolve by going out and downing defending champion Ohio State to secure a spot in the Big Ten title game and resurrect their season following a Week 10 loss to 5-7 Nebraska.

With a victory over No. 4 Iowa, the lone unbeaten aside from Clemson, the Spartans will have wins over four ranked teams and can march into the playoff with conviction—perhaps enough to jump Oklahoma and earn the third spot in the final rankings. ESPN’s Mike Greenberg even argued Sparty should be even higher:

Alabama should retain the No. 2 ranking should it go on to win the SEC over Florida, which tumbles into the conference title game on the heels of a 27-2 loss to Florida State and narrow win over 3-9 Florida Atlantic in what was supposed to be a cupcake game. The Crimson Tide should roll to their fourth SEC title under Nick Saban and gear up for their second straight playoff appearance.

Alabama will be riding the horse of Heisman Trophy favorite Derrick Henry, who leads the nation with 1,797 rush yards on a whopping 295 carries.

Even in a closer than expected game versus Auburn, Henry was a brute, as shown by the SEC Network:

Alabama is susceptible to teams with a balanced attack, and though the Spartans haven’t been remarkable on the ground—159.6 yards per game and 1.9 touchdowns per game—they make up for it with arguably the most veteran college quarterback in Cook under center.

Of both predicted playoff matchups, this one looms most intriguing.