Ohio State Must Root for Chaos for Slim Playoff Chances to Remain Alive

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Following Ohio State's 42-13 win over Michigan on Saturday, the celebration from the visitor's locker room could be heard loud and clear. But as the Buckeyes piled into the bus for their three-hour ride back to Columbus, Ohio State's festivities soon doubled as a Penn State pep rally.

Having just blown out their rivals to complete an 11-1 regular-season record, the Buckeyes still needed a Nittany Lions win over Michigan State to seal a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, which would give OSU its clearest path to defending its College Football Playoff championship. "Our season kind of rests on their shoulders right now," said Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott. "We're cheering them on to get that 'W.'"

Unfortunately for Elliott and his Ohio State teammates, Penn State couldn't pull off the upset, with the Spartans punching their ticket to Indianapolis with a 55-16 beatdown of the Nittany Lions.

With that, the Buckeyes' playoff hopes didn't quite die, but you won't find more college football fans rooting for chaos during conference championship weekend than you will in Columbus.

Ranked eighth in last week's College Football Playoff standings, Ohio State's win over the Wolverines figures to have moved the Buckeyes up at least two slots following losses suffered by No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 7 Baylor over the weekend. That would leave Ohio State with one week left to climb two spots into the selection committee's all-important final four, but with no power over its own ability to do so.

With Big 12 champion Oklahoma and the winner of the Big Ten Championship Game between Iowa and Michigan State seeming like locks for two of the spots in this year's playoff, the Buckeyes will turn their rooting efforts toward the ACC and SEC title games, all while keeping an eye on the Pac-12 Championship Game.

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Ohio State may need as few as one and as many as three upsets this weekend to keep its playoff hopes alive. But when it comes to the Buckeyes' rooting interests, the more havoc, the better.

The game that would open up the clearest path for Ohio State to crash the playoff will be played in Atlanta, with Alabama—ranked second in last weekend's CFP standings—taking on 10-2 Florida in the SEC title game. A Crimson Tide victory would secure their spot in the College Football Playoff for the second straight year, while a Gators upset would leave the SEC without an obvious candidate for the four-team tournament.

In other words, don't be surprised if Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer busts out some of his blue and orange gear from his time in Gainesville this weekend.

Assuming—and that's all we can really do with a second-year postseason format short on precedent—the committee would favor a one-loss Ohio State over a two-loss SEC champion Florida, a Gators victory would be the Buckeyes' best shot at securing a backdoor slide into the playoff. An upset in the ACC title game likewise would help Ohio State's cause, but it would also create a more confusing situation for the selection committee.

Because should No. 1 Clemson fall to No. 14 North Carolina in Charlotte this weekend, it would leave the committee debating the merits of a one-loss conference champion Tar Heels team that just beat the nation's top-ranked team. UNC's record, which includes wins over FCS opponents North Carolina A&T and Delaware, may not be ideal, but a win over the Tigers could be enough to trump the Buckeyes' spotty resume.

Your ACC championship rooting guide if you're an Ohio State fan? Pull for the Tar Heels, but do so with cautious optimism.

And then there's the case of the Pac-12 Championship Game, which could produce the Buckeyes' most viable competitor should either Alabama or Clemson falter. At 10-2 on the season, a conference championship could put Stanford back in playoff contention, given the importance the committee has placed on "championships won" as a resume booster.

If the playoff committee decides the merits of Ohio State and the Cardinal—ranked ninth in last week's playoff poll—are comparable, Stanford could conceivably have the edge. Better safe than sorry, Buckeye fans should be cheering for 8-4 Southern California to win the Pac-12 title and eliminate the conference from the playoff discussion.

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Other variables exist too, such as how the committee would view a Michigan State team that beat Ohio State but went on to lose the Big Ten title game. Would the committee want to set the precedent of punishing the Spartans for picking up a second loss while rewarding the team they beat to play in the title game, where they earned that second loss? It's a fascinating "what if?" to consider, and one we could have an answer to after this weekend.

Ultimately, however, all the Buckeyes can do is sit at home and hope that enough chaos occurs that they find themselves in a position to defend their College Football Playoff championship. It remains unclear how much or how little help they would need, but as it stands, these are the outcomes that would best benefit the Buckeyes:

• Florida defeating Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
• North Carolina defeating Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
• USC defeating Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
• Michigan State defeating Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.

And even then, those scenarios might not be enough. But that won't stop Ohio State and its fans from rooting as they hang to what's left of their playoff hopes.

"I just want the chance to repeat what we did last year, honestly," Elliott said. "I don't think there's any accolade or individual award that could rival holding up that College Football Playoff trophy at the end of the year."

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.