Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Baltimore Ravens own the recent rivalry with the Cleveland Browns, winning 13 of the last 15 meetings straight up, but the Browns covered both meetings last season and are 5-2-1 against the spread over the last eight meetings. In one of the worst Monday night matchups in recent memory, the Browns host the Ravens.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.8-20.1 Browns

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

It's difficult to make a case right now for betting on Baltimore, so here's a case against fading Cleveland instead.

The Browns have lost five games in a row SU and four in a row ATS after falling at Pittsburgh two weeks ago 30-9. Cleveland managed a 3-3 tie through the first seven minutes and then gave up the game's next 21 points and couldn't recover, reaching the end zone only when 12 minutes remained to be played.

On the day, the Browns managed just 15 yards rushing, gave up 459 yards of Steelers offense and lost three turnovers.

Just before that, Cleveland got outgained by 158 yards and lost at Cincinnati 31-10. Prior to that, the Browns got outgained by 237 yards in a 34-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. And getting outgained by margins like that is not conducive to winning games or covering spreads.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Making a case for Cleveland, as evidenced above, isn't easy. Instead, here's the case against the Ravens.

Baltimore has won two of its last three games, including last week's 16-13 victory over the St. Louis Rams. But the big news, of course, was the injuries that will cost quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett the rest of this season. The Ravens trailed the Rams by 10 points through three quarters but pulled even with five minutes to go. Then, they turned a late St. Louis fumble into the game-winning field goal.

Two weeks ago, Baltimore lost at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars 22-20.

At 3-7 overall and down their starting quarterback and leading rusher, the Ravens are just about dead in the AFC playoff race. And at 1-7-2 ATS on the season, they're also a lousy bet.

Smart pick

Neither of these teams inspires any betting confidence at the moment. Baltimore is banged up beyond recognition, while the Browns are the same old Browns. The smartest choice is probably the pass.

Betting trends

• The Ravens are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games against the Browns.
• The Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
• The Ravens are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.