Ohio State Must Beware Changing of the Guard in Rivalry Showdown vs. Michigan

COLUMBUS, Ohio — If there's one "what if?" moment that's stood out in the recent history of the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry, it came in 2011.

With the Buckeyes having won their previous seven meetings with the Wolverines, they headed to Ann Arbor as an underdog and with no shortage of baggage still stemming from the "Tat-gate" scandal that resulted in the departures of head coach Jim Tressel and star quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Michigan would take advantage of the opportunity, beating Ohio State by a score of 40-34, sealing a trip to the Sugar Bowl in the process.

The victory over the Buckeyes was Brady Hoke's first in college football's most storied rivalry.

It would also prove to be his last.

Two days later, Ohio State hired Urban Meyer, and the Buckeyes proceeded to reel off a 48-4 record—including three wins over the Wolverines—in the next three-plus seasons.

Four years after Michigan's short-lived changing of the guard in its rivalry with Ohio State, the Wolverines have their chance at a do-over. And with Jim Harbaugh prepared to coach in his edition of The Game at Michigan Stadium and the Buckeyes coming off their first loss in a 24-game span, it may not have come at a better time for the Wolverines.

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Because while Hoke's 11-2 start to his tenure in Ann Arbor proved to be fool's gold, Harbaugh's history would indicate that there's nothing phony about the 9-2 start he's gotten off to while coaching his alma mater this season. After completing turnaround jobs in previous stops at San Diego, Stanford and the NFL's San Francisco 49ers, Harbaugh has Michigan sitting at 10th in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, with the Wolverines' Big Ten title hopes still alive, albeit out of their control.

Having witnessed Meyer's transformation of what was a 6-7 football team four years ago into what is now the defending national champion, Ohio State star defensive end Joey Bosa said he sees plenty of similarities between the Buckeyes' and Michigan's respective head coaches.

"It’s like bringing in someone like coach Meyer to a program," Bosa said of Harbaugh earlier this week. "Someone who knows how to win and knows how to play tough."

That could pose a problem to Ohio State, which just found itself outplayed on both sides of the line in last weekend's 17-14 loss to Michigan State—the Buckeyes' first defeat of the 2015 season. Ohio State's meeting with Michigan this weekend will determine which team's Big Ten East title hopes will remain alive, with the Spartans controlling their own destiny in the division, needing a win over Penn State later in the afternoon to clinch a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game.

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If the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines and the Nittany Lions somehow pull off an upset, Ohio State's chances of defending its national title will be very much alive.

But with the opponent the Buckeyes have in front of them this weekend, completing the first part of that equation will be easier said than done.

Because despite the recent one-sidedness of the rivalry, The Game always has a way of making the outcomes interesting. In its last three victories over Michigan, Ohio State has won by margins of 14, one and five points in the past three years. The 2013 edition came down to a failed two-point conversion that would have won the game for the Wolverines.

What's more is that of all the Michigan teams that have kept games close with the Buckeyes in recent years, this year's Wolverines team will be the most formidable.

"We are well-aware that this is definitely the best [Michigan team] we have played in the last three years," Bosa said, carefully omitting the actual word "Michigan" from his answer, per Ohio State unwritten policy. "This rivalry is so huge, and it’s been huge the last two years, but to know we are playing such a good team and it’s back to how it used to be—two of the top teams in college football going at it—it makes it more exciting."

For the Buckeyes, it could also make it scary.

Because beyond just this weekend or this season, it's hard not to notice that the Wolverines are trending upward.

In addition to currently being slated to return six starters on each side of the ball—including star cornerback Jourdan Lewis and jack of all trades Jabrill Peppers—Michigan currently lays claim to the ninth-ranked class in the 2016 recruiting cycle. Even with emerging quarterback Jake Rudock being a senior, the Wolverines only figure to get better under Harbaugh, who has a history of getting the most out of his rosters.

Ohio State's future, on the other hand, remains up in the air, after the Buckeyes loss to Michigan State was followed by an outburst from star running back Ezekiel Elliott, who questioned his coaching staff's play-calling before revealing he'll be declaring for the 2016 NFL draft at the end of the season. Elliott isn't expected to be alone in that regard, with Bosa and backup Cardale Jones already hinting at this season being their last in Columbus, with an exodus of talent likely to follow.

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It was just one loss, and Ohio State does lay claim to the top-ranked recruiting class in 2016, but a follow-up defeat to its on-the-rise rival could prove to be devastating for the Buckeyes. That hasn't been lost on the OSU players, who are well-aware of what's on the line not just for them, but their opponent on Saturday.

"Coach Harbaugh has come in and done an incredible job of turning it around and having a great season so far," Bosa said.

A win over Ohio State would only just continue that.

And as for the Buckeyes themselves?

"If we lose our last two games," Bosa said, "of course that would be a failure."

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.